On Imus...Interesting theory re Cheney

[AnnInLa]

Brian Williams was just a call-in guest on Imus. He did not say he believed this theory, but had heard it as a rumor: Bush will show loyalty to Cheney and keep him on the ticket. But, Repubs are concerned about who will run for Pres in 2008, it obviously can't be Cheney. The best scenario for any party is to have the previous VP run for Pres, citing experience, etc. So, possible scenario is for Cheney to resign(step aside for the good of the party) after being re-elected. Then, the next-in-line will move up to be VP, making him a natural choice for the Repub presidential nominee in 2008.

My question is, and I should know this, I think I used to know this, is who becomes VP if the current VP resigns or dies??? Is it the House Majority Leader? Is it Pres Pro Tem of the Senate? Frist would make a very attractive/powerful Repub pres nominee....is it Frist?

[rpannier]

If he resigns or dies...

The President picks his sucessor...ala Nixon and Ford. If both the President and VP die at the same time, then the Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert is President.

[Literate Tar Heel]

1. 25th Amendment, Section 2

Section 2



Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress.

[AnnInLa]

2. Thanks!

That is a scary thought. Who does everyone think Bu$h would appoint?

[Literate Tar Heel]

5. the scary thing

is that if the Republicans still control both houses, he could appoint pretty much anyone he wants since he'd only need a majority vote in each house ... according to that theory it would be someone with presidential aspirations in 2008 ... I don't know, maybe Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum or Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney?

[MoonRiver]

7. The only scary thought is * "winning".

Nobody could be worse than Cheney, imo. Well, maybe DeLow. But its all academic because our country, as we formerly (pre-2000) knew it, will be officially destroyed, kaput, dead as a doornail if that nightmare scenario occurs. In other words, we gotta fight like hell till November.

:scared:

[LiberalEsto]

13. Jeb n/t

[KurtNYC]

26. Yes since it is a Monarchy

Jeb is next in line for the crown.

[Charley_Dog]

17. Who does everyone think Bu$h would appoint?

My guess would be Condoleeza Rice. Methinks the Shrub would see her as impervious to any attempts to NOT confirm by his opponents in the Senate.

[Literate Tar Heel]

22. nah

I don't think the Republicans would ever put her up for president in 2008, and since he only needs a majority of each house to confirm, if the Republicans vote in goose...I mean lockstep, then confirmation won't be an issue ... the Democrats could raise all the hell they want, but he could still force through whoever he wants ... my guesses would be Santorum, Romney, perhaps Frist

[whistle]

3. One small hitch to all this....

...Bush is going to loose!

[OneTwentyoNine]

14. You got it...it's all a moot point come November 2nd .......nt

[frankly_fedup2]

4. I thought like you did AnnInLa. I thought the Majority leader

was the 3rd most powerful person in the political party in power. However, the constitution seems to say that the president can choose anyone he pleases.

That just does not sound right to me for some reason.

[shoelace414]

6. It can't be someone from the same state

(that's in the constitution) however, they can do what Cheney did and just change their voting registration to Oregon

[MousePlayingDaffodil]

9. No, there's no provision in the U.S. Constitution . . . .

. . . that precludes the President and the Vice-President from being from the same state.

[Literate Tar Heel]

10. technically true, but they still can't be from the same state

"The Vice President must have the same constitutional qualifications as the President and cannot come from the same state. (In fact, this second requirement is not a constitutional requirement. What the Constitution provides is that if the candidates for President and Vice President come from the same state, the electors from that state could not vote for both. This might result in the Vice Presidential candidate receiving insufficiently many electoral votes for election even if the Presidential candidate is elected.) In practice the second requirement is easily circumvented by having the Vice President change the state of residency as was done by Dick Cheney who changed his legal residency from Texas to Wyoming in order to serve as Vice President for George W. Bush."

http://www.brainyencyclopedia.com/encyclopedia/v/vi/vice_president_of_the_united_states.html

[MousePlayingDaffodil]

11. No, "technically" it is true and . . . .

. . . therefore, constitutionally, the President and the Vice-President CAN be from the same state. I was aware of the provisions of the XII Amendment.

[Literate Tar Heel]

16. constitutionally they can, sure,

and in the case mentioned in this thread, where a sitting President is appointing a replacement Vice President, then there's no problem at all ... in practice though, it would be very unlikely to happen in a campaign situation, which is what I had in mind (I suppose if both members of the ticket were from a state they feel they have no chance of winning, but if a ticket can't win its own state when both candidates represent it, it's not much of a ticket in the first place ... or if a ticket comes from a state with a small number of electoral votes and they're cocky enough to feel they don't need them to win ... but I doubt we'll ever see either of these scenarios, especially when it's so easy just to change voting state status like Cheney did)

[newyawker99]

25. Hi MousePlayingDaffodil!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[kstewart33]

8. That is a really dumb theory

Of all the ones I've heard about Cheney, this one is the thickest. If Bush is re-elected, he will need Cheney. He's not going to dump the one guy he relies on for just about everything.

My best guess--Cheney will remain on the ticket. So let's move on to other gossip, okay?

[Geo55]

20. Yep

NOBODY KIN REPLACE UNKA DICK !
but...

[Jacobin]

12. JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

must....continue...........family.......criminal.........dynasty....

[NewJeffCT]

15. My guesses

1) Bill Frist
2) Jeb Bush - he's from a different state
3) Condi Rice
4) a Republican governor

[MallRat]

18. The President nominates someone, then Congress confirms him/her.

Of course, it would be interesting theater if Bush chose someone as divisive as Cheney to be his replacement. If Bush nominated a really nasty partisan Republican with a long list of enemies, it would make the Clarence Thomas hearings look like a day in the park.

For an excellent dramatic treatment of this scenario (with a Dem President, though), see "The Contender" with Gary Oldman and Joan Allen. Gary Oldman absolutely made my skin crawl- he was brilliant as the calculating, vindictive Republican Chair of the House Judiciary Committee.



-MR

[KharmaTrain]

19. Williams May Have Stumbled Onto Something

All this crap about Chenney being dumped is just that. Bunnypants needs his puppetmaster to get through this (s)election and Chenney has lots of IOUs out there he's cashing in on. Just like De Lay, he's got too much power and there's no on in that corrupt party that really can stand up to him...at least until November.

After November, the game changes. Perish the though of this regime remaining, Chenney...who will be also coming up on 70, will serve better as the svengali behind the curtain than being a "front man", and "retiring" to an advisory role sounds like a possible option.

I don't know what the Constitution would say regarding a former VP or President from giving "advice" to a sitting executive and would that require some sort of House/Senate action, as Chenney could still remain the puppetmaster while the VP slot is used to groom the next puppet or a good decoy.

This is assuming the GOOP retains control of the House (moreso than the Senate)...where the action begins if Chenney resigns and if Bunnypants can railroad through his nominee, the Senate could easily cave. This would especially be the case in the wake of inauguration, when there are sure to be several nominations going on, and this one could fly under the radar just like the Asskroft one did in 2001.

Again, this is a worse case scenario, but Williams may have hit on why all this Chenney talk is just a smoke screen. They know he's a liability unless he's indicted or there's some real smoking gun Haliburton stuff, he's gonna ride things out til the election, just to shove it up our asses...big time.

[AnnInLa]

21. I agree

The more I think of this scenario, the more I think it is extremely likely. If the Repugs want an extended reign in America, they will have to have someone strongly positioned to run in 2008, and that can't be Cheney. To the posters who think this is a stupid line of speculation, it's a lot more likely than some of the scenarios that I've seen posted here. We should take this seriously.

[really-looney]

23. No one who is a threat to Jeb

Bush will not replace Uncle Dickie unless he is is serious legal trouble. If he has to replace him look for someone weak so that Jeb has the inside shot at the Republican primaries. It would not even suprise me to see him pick a ***DEMOCRAT*** like Zell Miller who is too old to run against Jebus but he could then claim his "I am a uniter" crap.

No one who is a threat to Jeb will be on the ticket or named VP.

[phiddle]

24. They're stuck between 3 issues

1. The overarching master plan is that Jeb is the next president. (Notice that after Poppy was deposed in '92, BOTH Jeb and idiot won governor's races in the very next election, and in very populous states, thus securing the interests of the cabal for the next generation or so.)
2. Dimbo can't govern, that is, fulfill the executive functions, and needs a VP who can. (Cheney is great for them in this respect as would be Jim Baker or Jeb)
3. They have to win the next election.

Now, Cheney is a real liability in terms of #3, as would be Jeb if they just put him on the ticket now. Any other candidate (Frist, Romney, Powell, Hagel, etc.) gets in Jeb's way, unless it's an eminence gris such as Jim Baker who would not run in '08. If Cheney were out, then it would be real hard for him to control things from afar---he needs the authority of the office to delegate, task, etc.

I expect Cheney to be off the ticket ONLY if the election appears beyond Diebold's ability to sway, and in that case to go to Baker or Powell, who will then be shunted aside in '08.

[KurtNYC]

29. Looses immunity too

I like your points.

Also Cheney looses immunity once he is out of the VP spot. And he NEEDS immunity. Bush would have to pardon him promptly.

[phiddle]

30. Bingo!

Jackpot to you, Kurt.

[indigobusiness]

27. But Cheney hurts their campaign ...makes no sense...

so it's probably true.

[KurtNYC]

28. When Giuliani knew he would get his butt kicked by

Hillary Clinton (the polls just kept sinking) he withdrew from the race. Cheney is in legal trouble already and there may be more on the way (the Plame investigation). This could be forcing their hand. This whole national discussion is damaging to their cause so there must be some strong reason why they allow it to continue. I'm starting to think there are reasons Cheney will be forced to go and they know they can't fight it so they are setting it up to make it look like a "choice." (so this is may be one time where they are pro-choice so to speak) Plenty of times when chimp is adamant about something ("cards on the table") it is the prelude to a total reversal, or flip-flop.

[phiddle]

31. Good points

It's setting up for a perfect storm around Cheney:
1. The French (reportedly) are close to indictments.
2. Dept. of Justice is investigating his connection to Halliburton no bid contracts. (Capitol Hill Blue is reporting that the White House Counsel has concluding that the Dick certainly breached ethics requirements, and probably legal ones, in this matter.)
3. The Plame affair, with most knowlegeable observers predicting that it will center on Cheney's office. The questions being, will Fitzgerald finger Cheney and/or Bush, or will he stop at aides such as Scooter Libby?

Cheney (for the immunity you noted, plus, were he not the sitting VP, his testimony against others could be compelled) is probably fighting like hell to stay in---this is what's holding them back. They would like to get out in front of this issue, but can't. In this circumstance, any delay serves the administration---the later anything happens, the less the chance that Bush would have to pardon him before the election, and the less time for the press to dig around the story.
Now, the administration can string out the Justice dept. investigation, also hope/pray, and eventually dispute concerning Fitzgerald's, but the French are a real wild card. But if any of these 3 events busts loose, Cheney's gone, and the imminence of at least 2 of them is likely why they're preparing now.

[TacticalPeek]

32. Questionable premise. Here's the question, Brian.

Question: During the last 168 years, how many sitting vice presidents have been elected president?

Answer: One.


This indicates that the position of VP is a long shot for hitting the jackpot, like making a three-point shot from beneath the opponent's basket. Presumably there are many dynamics involved in this factoid, but a long shot is still a long shot. The percentage play (or position) recently has been state governorship. For this reason, it particularly irks me when a repuke whines the R spin about "Gore should have won going away; he had prosperity, peace; he was a sitting vice president; he must have been a really rotten candidate in a really rotten party to lose." But I feel better when I surrender any hope of hearing rational discourse from the likes of Sean Hammity, etc.

Oh, that one guy? That would be Poppy, the first failed Bush presidency. Next before him was Martin Van Buren in 1836, during the tectonic times leading into and out of Andrew Jackson's presidency.

The only other two in the entire US history were Thomas Jefferson and John Adams (them again!). Arguably, they count not, because they achieved VP as electoral runner-up to the president, like a Bush/Gore administration would be now. Go on, try to imagine. Problematic? That's why we have the 12th amendment to the Constitution.


But I'm with Kurt and phiddle. Pork Chop Boy is toast, and TPTB are scrambling around for some butter, or KY.

[Cat Atomic]

33. This scenario makes no sense.

Cheney is the anchor dragging the Bush administration down, but they can't cut him loose because he's really the president. Why would he gracefully step aside after the election- AFTER weathering the storm?

I can imagine Cheney stepping aside before November. It's unlikely, but possible. He may see that he's got a choice between indirect power as a senior in the ruling party, and political banisment when his extremists lose the election. But there's no way he'd leave his position if they actually managed to get through another election.