The National % and State EV simulation models assume that
Kerry's polling numbers increase by 70% (the most likely
case) of the undecided/other vote. This assumption is based on
historical data, which show that undecideds break for the
challenger over 80% of the time.
For example, assume Kerry is leading in a state by 46%-44%.
with 10% undecided. Allocating 70% of the undecide to Kerry
adds 7%
to his total. The adjusted projection is now Kerry, 53-47%.
The same 70% allocation is applied to the average of 10
national polls.
NATIONAL AVERAGE POLLING TREND
Data Source:
www.pollingreport.com
Average Polling TIA Projection
Kerry Bush Diff Kerry Bush Diff
IBD
Feb 44 41 3 54.50 45.50 9.00
Mar 45 43 2 53.40 46.60 6.80
Apr 40 44 -4 51.20 48.80 2.40
May 43 42 1 53.50 46.50 7.00
June 43 44 -1 52.10 47.90 4.20
July 49 44 5 53.90 46.10 7.80
ABC
Feb 52 43 9 55.50 44.50 11.00
Mar 53 44 9 55.10 44.90 10.20
Apr 48 49 -1 50.10 49.90 0.20
May 49 47 2 51.80 48.20 3.60
June 53 45 8 54.40 45.60 8.80
AP
Jan 37 54 -17 43.30 56.70 -13.40
Mar 45 46 -1 51.30 48.70 2.60
Apr 44 45 -1 51.70 48.30 3.40
May 43 46 -3 50.70 49.30 1.40
July 45 49 -4 49.20 50.80 -1.60
NWK
Jan 41 52 -11 45.90 54.10 -8.20
Feb 50 45 5 53.50 46.50 7.00
Mar 48 45 3 52.90 47.10 5.80
Apr 50 43 7 54.90 45.10 9.80
May 46 45 1 52.30 47.70 4.60
July 51 45 6 53.80 46.20 7.60
ARG
Jan 47 46 1 51.90 48.10 3.80
Feb 48 46 2 52.20 47.80 4.40
Mar 50 43 7 54.90 45.10 9.80
Apr 50 44 6 54.20 45.80 8.40
May 47 44 3 53.30 46.70 6.60
June 48 46 2 52.20 47.80 4.40
July 49 45 4 53.20 46.80 6.40
NBC
Jan 35 54 -19 42.70 57.30 -14.60
Mar 45 47 -2 50.60 49.40 1.20
May 42 46 -4 50.40 49.60 0.80
June 47 47 0 51.20 48.80 2.40
July 54 43 11 56.10 43.90 12.20
FOX
Jan 32 54 -22 41.80 58.20 -16.40
Feb 43 47 -4 50.00 50.00 0.00
Mar 44 44 0 52.40 47.60 4.80
Apr 42 43 -1 52.50 47.50 5.00
May 42 42 0 53.20 46.80 6.40
June 42 48 -6 49.00 51.00 -2.00
CBS
Jan 48 43 5 54.30 45.70 8.60
Feb 47 46 1 51.90 48.10 3.80
Mar 43 46 -3 50.70 49.30 1.40
Apr 48 43 5 54.30 45.70 8.60
May 49 41 8 56.00 44.00 12.00
June 45 44 1 52.70 47.30 5.40
July 49 44 5 53.90 46.10 7.80
CNN/Gallup
Jan 43 55 -12 44.40 55.60 -11.20
Feb 48 49 -1 50.10 49.90 0.20
Mar 52 44 8 54.80 45.20 9.60
Apr 46 51 -5 48.10 51.90 -3.80
May 49 47 2 51.80 48.20 3.60
June 48 49 -1 50.10 49.90 0.20
July 50 46 4 52.80 47.20 5.60
PEW
Jan 41 52 -11 45.90 54.10 -8.20
Feb 47 47 0 51.20 48.80 2.40
Mar 48 44 4 53.60 46.40 7.20
Apr 47 46 1 51.90 48.10 3.80
May 50 45 5 53.50 46.50 7.00
June 46 48 -2 50.20 49.80 0.40
LA Times
Apr 49 46 3 52.50 47.50 5.00
June 51 44 7 54.50 45.50 9.00
ZOGBY
Mar 48 46 2 52.20 47.80 4.40
Apr 47 44 3 53.30 46.70 6.60
May 47 42 5 54.70 45.30 9.40
June 44 42 2 53.80 46.20 7.60
July 46 44 2 53.00 47.00 6.00
TIME
Jan 43 54 -11 45.10 54.90 -9.80
Feb 48 50 -2 49.40 50.60 -1.20
May 51 46 5 53.10 46.90 6.20
July 49 45 4 53.20 46.80 6.40
…………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Data source of state polls:
www.electoral-vote.com
COMPARISON OF KERRY % VS. LAST 3 DEM % IN EACH STATE
AND PROBABILITY OF KERRY WINNING STATE
Elec. Dem% Proj. Proj. %Probability
Votes Last3 Kerry% Diff of Kerry win
AL 9 44.8 45.0 0.2 1.0
AK 3 37.6 40.7 3.1 0.1
AZ 10 48.8 47.2 -1.6 16.4
AR 6 55.2 50.6 -4.6 55.8
CA 55 57.4 57.2 -0.2 99.0
CO 9 48.8 49.3 0.5 41.4
CT 7 57.7 62.6 4.9 99.0
DE 3 56.8 57.1 0.3 99.0
DC 3 90.3 90.4 0.1 99.0
FL 27 50.7 53.3 2.6 88.4
GA 15 47.6 45.9 -1.7 1.0
HI 4 59.0 60.9 1.9 99.0
ID 4 35.7 39.0 3.3 0.1
IL 21 57.9 60.0 2.1 99.0
IN 11 44.8 45.9 1.1 1.0
IA 7 51.8 53.6 1.8 95.0
KS 6 42.4 41.6 -0.8 0.1
KY 8 46.7 45.3 -1.4 1.0
LA 9 49.2 49.0 -0.2 37.5
ME 4 57.1 52.3 -4.8 76.9
MD 10 57.8 58.6 0.8 99.0
MA 12 65.3 66.3 1.0 99.0
MI 17 54.7 54.2 -0.5 97.5
MN 10 55.7 53.3 -2.4 88.4
MS 6 44.3 36.3 -8.0 0.1
MO 11 52.5 52.1 -0.4 75.0
MT 3 44.9 42.8 -2.1 0.1
NE 5 37.5 36.5 -1.0 0.1
NV 5 49.9 51.4 1.5 65.4
NH 4 51.7 56.7 5.0 99.0
NJ 15 56.5 56.6 0.1 99.0
NM 5 53.0 55.3 2.3 99.0
NY 31 62.6 66.4 3.8 99.0
NC 15 46.6 49.9 3.3 48.5
ND 3 40.8 37.2 -3.6 0.1
OH 20 50.8 51.1 0.3 61.5
OK 7 42.8 35.2 -7.6 0.1
OR 7 53.6 56.2 2.6 99.0
PA 21 54.2 54.1 -0.1 97.5
RI 4 65.6 64.2 -1.4 99.0
SC 8 44.4 47.5 3.1 20.2
SD 3 44.5 44.8 0.3 0.1
TN 11 50.5 50.8 0.3 57.7
TX 34 44.3 42.6 -1.7 0.1
UT 5 33.6 29.7 -3.9 0.1
VT 3 59.4 60.1 0.7 99.0
VA 13 47.3 48.5 1.2 31.7
WA 11 55.9 55.1 -0.8 99.0
WV* 5 54.0 47.2 -6.8 16.4
WI 10 52.7 51.3 -1.4 65.4
WY 3 38.3 30.8 -7.5 0.1
ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION FORECAST
based on latest state polling
www.electoral-vote.com
Kerry wins 99 of 100 Trials
with average of 329 electoral votes
Electoral Votes
Trial Kerry Bush Winner
1 331 207 Kerry
2 328 210 Kerry
3 327 211 Kerry
4 350 188 Kerry
5 371 167 Kerry
6 326 212 Kerry
7 342 196 Kerry
8 309 229 Kerry
9 340 198 Kerry
10 350 188 Kerry
11 266 272 Bush
12 290 248 Kerry
13 308 230 Kerry
14 363 175 Kerry
15 365 173 Kerry
16 380 158 Kerry
17 348 190 Kerry
18 342 196 Kerry
19 325 213 Kerry
20 349 189 Kerry
21 358 180 Kerry
22 343 195 Kerry
23 330 208 Kerry
24 335 203 Kerry
25 346 192 Kerry
26 313 225 Kerry
27 308 230 Kerry
28 348 190 Kerry
29 304 234 Kerry
30 329 209 Kerry
31 365 173 Kerry
32 322 216 Kerry
33 341 197 Kerry
34 377 161 Kerry
35 368 170 Kerry
36 328 210 Kerry
37 322 216 Kerry
38 343 195 Kerry
39 335 203 Kerry
40 301 237 Kerry
41 331 207 Kerry
42 323 215 Kerry
43 316 222 Kerry
44 337 201 Kerry
45 306 232 Kerry
46 324 214 Kerry
47 347 191 Kerry
48 352 186 Kerry
49 334 204 Kerry
50 335 203 Kerry
51 353 185 Kerry
52 331 207 Kerry
53 333 205 Kerry
54 351 187 Kerry
55 308 230 Kerry
56 313 225 Kerry
57 329 209 Kerry
58 338 200 Kerry
59 337 201 Kerry
60 342 196 Kerry
61 302 236 Kerry
62 331 207 Kerry
63 348 190 Kerry
64 373 165 Kerry
65 333 205 Kerry
66 330 208 Kerry
67 347 191 Kerry
68 343 195 Kerry
69 311 227 Kerry
70 297 241 Kerry
71 343 195 Kerry
72 308 230 Kerry
73 339 199 Kerry
74 305 233 Kerry
75 311 227 Kerry
76 324 214 Kerry
77 303 235 Kerry
78 324 214 Kerry
79 310 228 Kerry
80 315 223 Kerry
81 310 228 Kerry
82 310 228 Kerry
83 330 208 Kerry
84 345 193 Kerry
85 320 218 Kerry
86 320 218 Kerry
87 290 248 Kerry
88 334 204 Kerry
89 347 191 Kerry
90 342 196 Kerry
91 330 208 Kerry
92 296 242 Kerry
93 303 235 Kerry
94 341 197 Kerry
95 312 226 Kerry
96 292 246 Kerry
97 314 224 Kerry
98 341 197 Kerry
99 326 212 Kerry
100 319 219 Kerry
Notes:
1) State and National polls are adjusted assuming that
70% of undecided/Nader/others will split for Kerry.
2) State polls are weighted by its ratio of total votes cast
in the last 3 elections
3) Third party candidates not considered for this analysis.
4) The analysis is only as good as the quality of polling
data
5) State polls are taken over weeks; National polls are taken
over days.
Simulation Methodology:
Monte Carlo simulation uses random numbers applied to
probability distributions of uncertain events in order to
generate a range of
sampled outcome scenarios. For the analysis, I used the
latest state polling numbers to simulate an election outcome.
In this case, an "event" is defined as Kerry's
forecast share of a
state's popular vote. An "outcome" is the simulated
probability of Kerry winning the election, based on the total
electoral votes for the states he "wins"..
For example, if we run 100 trials in the simulation and
Kerry's
electoral vote total exceeds 269 in 90 of the 100
trials, we can reasonably conclude that he has a 90%
probability of winning the election. Each state poll is
assumed to have a
margin of error of +/-4% and a uniform distribution
around the polling numbers.
We assign a probability to Kerry winning each state,
determined by the latest polling numbers.
For example, assume these are the probabilities that Kerry
would win the following states:
Kansas: .001
New York: .99
Florida: .807
This means that if the latest Kansas poll is 60% Bush, 40%
( a 20% spread) then Kerry has a 1 in 1,000 chance of
winning the state. Conversely, he has a 99% chance to win NY.
In the case of a close state, like Florida, a Kerry lead of 5%
assigns him an 80.7% probability of winning the state.
Excel's random generator function returns a random
number X between 0 and 1. If X is less than
the probability of Kerry winning the state, the state goes to
Kerry, otherwise it goes to Bush.
For instance, if X = .72 for Florida, then Kerry wins the
state, since X = .72 is LESS than the .807 probability
that Kerry will win the state.
The simulation runs identically for all states. The electoral
votes are summed for those states which fall in Kerry's
column.
The model assumes that Kerry's polling numbers in each state
will increase by 70% of the undecided/other vote. This
assumption is based on historical data, which show that
undecideds break for the challenger over 80% of the time. .
For example, assume Kerry is leading in a state by 46%-44%.
with 10% undecided. Allocating 70% of the 10% to Kerry adds 7%
to his total. The adjusted projection is now Kerry winning by
53-47%.