Watch the AOL Straw Poll! Its telling us something very interesting.

[TruthIsAll]

Which is that Kerry may be doing better than anyone thinks.			
AOL has Kerry winning with 55%-43 with 398 EV.
And that's for over 127,000 votes.

http://www.electionguide04.com/straw_poll.adp

AOL has Kerry doing 2% better than my forecast models. I
expect a higher number  for Kerry on the Net, but AOL? They
are for BushCo all the way. 

My models show Kerry at:
..............................................................
National: 53.59
StateEV:  52.83 with 324 votes, a 96.5% win probability,
Average:  53.21
					
COMBINED NATIONAL AND STATE PROJECTION						
Kerry:	53.21% of two-party vote				
Bush:       46.79%					
Spread	6.41%					

NATIONAL PROJECTION MODEL						
National polling data from pollingreport.com includes:			
IBD, ABC, NWK, ARG, NBC, CBS, PEW, LAT, ZOGBY, TIME				
						
Kerry	     53.59%	of two-party vote				
Bush	     46.41%					
Spread     7.18%					

STATE ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION MODEL						
				
Most Likely Vote%; Electoral votes						
Kerry 52.83%	324				
Bush  47.17%	214				
Spread 5.65%	109				
						
Based on these numbers, Kerry wins	965 of 1000 simulation
trial runs	
with a 96.5% probability of winning the election.			
.................................................................			
Here are my state forecasts vs. AOL's poll.

     Kerry	Kerry	Bush	Diff
	TIA	AOL	AOL	AOL/TIA
AL	45 	42	55	3
AK	41 	42	55	-1.3
AZ	47 	52	46	-4.8
AR	51 	51	47	-0.4
CA	57 	60	38	-2.8
CO	49 	56	42	-6.7
CT	63 	61	36	1.6
DE	57 	53	44	4.1
DC	90 	86	12	4.4
FL	53 	55	43	-1.7
GA	46 	45	53	0.9
HI	61 	55	41	5.9
ID	39 	45	52	-6
IL	60 	58	40	2
IN	46 	47	50	-1.1
IA	54 	60	38	-6.4
KS	42 	52	46	-10.4
KY	45 	50	49	-4.7
LA	49 	39	60	10
ME	52 	65	31	-12.7
MD	59 	58	40	0.6
MA	67 	63	34	3.7
MI	53 	58	40	-5
MN	53 	62	36	-9
MS	36 	37	62	-0.7
MO	52 	56	43	-3.9
MT	43 	49	48	-6.2
NE	37 	52	46	-15.5
NV	51 	57	41	-5.6
NH	57 	63	36	-6.3
NJ	57 	55	42	1.6
NM	55 	58	40	-2.7
NY	65 	65	33	0
NC	49 	48	31	0.9
ND	37 	43	55	-5.8
OH	51 	55	43	-3.9
OK	39 	47	50	-7.8
OR	56 	57	41	-0.8
PA	54 	58	40	-3.9
RI	64 	61	37	3.2
SC	48 	45	54	2.5
SD	45 	48	52	-3.2
TN	51 	52	46	-1.2
TX	43 	45	54	-2.4
UT	30 	48	50	-18.3
VT	60 	67	31	-6.9
VA	49 	53	46	-4.5
WA	55 	61	37	-5.9
WV	47 	51	46	-3.8
WI	55 	55	43	0
WY	31 	52	48	-21.2
    
    52.83   55   43.6  (3.1)

[Vogon_Glory]

1. Interesting--AOL's Polls Are Often Freeped

Interesting analysis. My experience with the nut chase server (My DU screen name is my old AOL political screen name) has been that AOL polls are frequently FReeped, with the right wingie-dingies voting early and often.

If John Kerry is doing this well even on AOL and that close to the FReeperstani caravanserai, maybe there's growing hope for the Good Guys this November.

[CaTeacher]

2. I love getting good news, but realistically

it is too early for the polls to be accurate. This race will be won on election day---when we GET OUT OUR VOTE!!!!

I will be working my ass off! I hope for a big victory---but hey--a victory is all that really matters.

[whistle]

3. AOL does a political poll???

...They aren't the only internet provider out there. What about other providers. I'm on MSN, but I've never seen a presidential poll, straw or otherwise. Maybe I'm not looking for one, but shouldn't these be "in our face" kind of things? Why did your poll show such a low vote for Kerry (31%)? And wow, look at Utah. So maybe the American voters aren't asleep after all. Still a lot of work to do between now and November 2. What would it cost Micheal Moore to make copies of Fahrenheit 9/11 on DVD and sent a complimentary copy to all registered republican voters during Sept. Such a ploy could put Shrub/Cheney right over the edge and neutralize any October surprise that BushCo could pull.

[BeatleBoot]

4. I'm confused

Are we discussing on-line, non-scientific polls or traditional random sample calls to likely voters?

[TruthIsAll]

5. Let me try to interpret this by tweaking my model

Notice that Nader gets 2%. Seems reasonable.

I just ran the model assuming  Kerry gets 80% of the 
undecided/Other vote (assumed at 10%), leaving Nader with 2%.

Then we are closer (within 1%) of the AOL numbers:
Kerry 53.82%	343EV
Bush 	44.18%	195EV
Nader 2.00%

What's the point of all this?

To suggest that perhaps there is something of value in those
straw poll numbers. I don't know how scientific the AOL straw
poll is, but it doesn't seen that far off the mark if one were
to assumes a solid undecided voter move to Kerry.

[TruthIsAll]

6. Her's is a link to vote in an AOL poll (it is NOT the straw poll)

I don't get it. There are 700,000 online respondents to this poll.
This is not the straw poll of 130,000 votes.

This poll is the AOL freeper favorite. And Kerry is still close. In this one Bush is ahead 50-47. That is far from the 5% lead that Kerry has in most polls.

This gives me a gut feeling that the straw poll is one to watch.

http://aolsvc.news.aol.com/elections/article.adp?id=20040707104409990001

[featherman]

7. Somebody help me with this

Is my memory faulty or didn't nearly every web "poll" lean heavily GOP in 2000? I believe the DEM "excuse" in those days was ..."well, the web is mostly young, white and male and that demographic has been GOP". I know the web is now increasingly female and less just white but now every one of these so-called interactive polls is and has been pro-Kerry by up to 60% and more. So what gives? Is this all a web demographic change or has the still mostly young, white male web somehow flipped over to the DEMS?

[sandnsea]

9. More women

Somewhere in the last 4 years the web flipped to more women than men in the US. AOL is alot more shoppy, commercial, men may not be using it anymore. Could be foreign internet users too. Alot of things could have happened. But it is really odd that these internet polls today are the complete opposite of what they were even 2 years ago.

[HootieMcBoob]

8. I couldn't get your link to work

Here's what the latest electoral votes look like state by state according to AOL straw poll: http://www.electionguide04.com/straw_poll.adp

[Swamp Rat]

10. Louisiana and Mississippi seem to vote more Nazi than everyone else

Rural Louisiana is KKK, David Duke country - a completely different culture, society etc. At least here in Orleans Parish, New Orleans, the majority vote Kerry. We're like a tiny Caribbean island nation in a sea of redneck Nazis.

[TruthIsAll]

11. The AOL map is off by these states

They have these states for Kerry which will DEFINITELY go for Bush:
MT WY NE KS KY AK

They have these states for Bush which MAY go for Kerry:
LA NC TN

Otherwise, the map looks good to me.

[Swamp Rat]

12. OK... nonetheless, Northern LA is Nazi country.

One hour North of New Orleans is like going to another planet.

[HootieMcBoob]

15. Tells you something doesn't it

The states that are the most hard core Republican have the worst jobs record, the worst economic record, the highest poverty rates, the highest infant mortality rates, the lowest worst public school systems, the worst environmental records. People and Businesses are not relocating to those places. Whereas the opposite is true of the states that more consistently elect Democrats to positions.

[TruthIsAll]

13. kick

[Tweed]

14. AOL poll is not truth

Why bother with this poll Truthisall? Any poll that shows Kerry winning Kansas is crap. I don't mean to be rude, but you clearly don't know anything about Kansas if you want to follow this poll.

I think this poll shows that internet users who are liberal internet users spend their time going to intelligent sites while conservative internet users go to game & stupid joke sites. What would be worse is if Kansas could go Kerry, and we have a wide majority in the 50% of people who don't vote at all.

[TruthIsAll]

16. Look at the national 55-43%. Of course Kerry will NOT carry Kansas.

And of course the poll is not scientific, but...look at the overall national % voting trend.

Look at the map. It is not that far off, if we switch those 5 or 6 highly Repub states voting for Kerry back to the Repubs. I am sure that they will turn RED as more votes come in.

The MAP is telling me Bush is in trouble. But I already knew that.

If you beliueve Kerry will win in a landslide, the AOL poll is confirming that belief. I believe Kerry will win in a walk.