Academics Says It's Kerry's To Lose

[59millionmorons]

Has this ever happened that the challenger is being lable it's his to loose. Shouldnt it always be the incumbents to lose, they have the bully pulpit.


If the election were held today, Princeton Professor Sam Wang says Sen. John Kerry would win: "Counting the last six polls, the current probability of a Kerry win is 98 percent. Counting only the last three polls, the probability is 99.98 percent."

And Salon reports on an academic analysis of undecided voters: "There are many reasons for the Democrats to be hopeful heading into Boston next week, but the most important of these may be that the Bush campaign has maximized its potential and trails in the polls. There is a boundary to the limits of any political coalition, and the Bush-Cheney campaign is near the edge of its electoral reach."

[LoZoccolo]

1. There's no October surprise in these analyses!

:scared:

[dicknbush]

2. I'm not sure if any one said it was Dewey's to lose....

but that campaign was the classic crash and burn of all time. Dewey was way ahead in the "Polls" but he didn't win the poll that matter. If Kerry is to win the pressure on Bush must be constant and they must be on the offensive as often as possible. The Bush team are very aggresive and the situation they crated agaisnt Gore was that they made Gore respond to their silliness (With the help of the press of course). That cannot happen again and I think Kerry is clever enough to know how to avoid that position. There is an article in the Atlantic this month called "When George meets John". It goes into detail about debating styles. Very Interesting.