I have calculated the probability of Kerry wining the election
using two different methods. In both cases I assume Kerry gets
70% of the undecided/Nader vote.
The results are interesting.
1- Latest average of 10 national polls and Kerry’s projected
vote %.
I assume an MoE of .025 for the 10-poll average.
Kerry has a 96.7% probability of winning using this method.
Note: If Kerry and Bush split the allocation in the same
proportion as their average polling numbers (Kerry leads by
48.5% - 44.1 %) then Kerry’s probability of a win is 88.3%
2- Latest state polling data. I use Monte Carlo simulation
(1000 trials) to calculate the electoral votes for the states
which Kerry wins in each trial run.
I assume an MoE of .04 for each state poll.
Kerry has a 97.4 % probability of winning using this method.
BOTTOM LINE: The state polls confirm the national polls.
NATIONAL POLLS: PROBABILITY ANALYSIS
Latest Polls .50 alloc -.70 alloc
Kerry Bush P (win) Proj P (win)
IBD 44 41 72.2% 54.5 93.3%
ABC 46 46 50.0% 51.6 70.3%
NWK 51 45 85.1% 53.8 89.7%
ARG 49 45 76.1% 53.2 85.7%
NBC 54 43 97.1% 56.1 97.9%
CBS 49 44 81.5% 53.9 90.3%
PEW 46 44 64.4% 53.0 84.1%
LAT 51 44 89.0% 54.5 93.3%
ZOGBY 46 44 64.4% 53.0 84.1%
TIME 49 45 76.1% 53.2 85.7%
AVG 48.50 44.10 88.3% 53.7 96.7%
STATE POLLS: SIMULATION ANALYSIS
Most Likely Case
Assume 70% Undecided/other to Kerry
Win Prob. Pct EV
Kerry 97.4% 52.9% 329
Bush 2.6% 47.1% 209
State Electoral Vote Simulation: Historical Voting, Kerry
Projection and Win Probability
Note: Dem% is Democratic % of the two-party vote in the last
three pres. Elections
Hist% Dem% Kerry Kerry EV Trials runs 1-10 of 1000
Kerry Vote Proj. Prob. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Proj. 52.60% 52.92% Win 357 350 322 270 342 375 333 326 345 296
AL 44.8 45.0% 10.6%
AK 37.6 40.7% 1.0%
AZ 48.8 53.9% 83.5% 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
AR 55.2 50.6% 56.0% 6 6 6
CA 57.4 57.2% 96.4% 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55
CO 48.8 49.3% 43.1% 9 9 9 9 9 9
CT 57.7 62.6% 99.9% 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
DE 56.8 57.1% 96.2% 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
DC 90.3 90.4% 100.0% 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
FL 50.7 53.3% 79.5% 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
GA 47.6 45.9% 15.3% 15 15
HI 59.0 60.9% 99.7% 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
ID 35.7 39.0% 0.3%
IL 57.9 60.0% 99.4% 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
IN 44.8 45.9% 15.3% 11
IA 51.8 53.6% 81.6% 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
KS 42.4 41.6% 1.8% 6
KY 46.7 45.3% 12.0% 8
LA 49.2 49.0% 40.1% 9 9 9 9 9
ME 57.1 52.3% 71.7% 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
MD 57.8 58.6% 98.4% 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
MA 65.3 66.7% 100.0% 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
MI 54.7 53.0% 77.3% 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17
MN 55.7 53.0% 77.3% 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
MS 44.3 36.3% 0.0%
MO 52.5 52.1% 70.0% 11 11 11 11
MT 44.9 42.8% 3.6%
NE 37.5 36.5% 0.0%
NV 49.9 51.4% 63.7% 5 5 5 5 5 5
NH 51.7 56.7% 95.3% 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
NJ 56.5 56.6% 95.1% 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
NM 53.0 55.3% 90.7% 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
NY 62.6 65.0% 100.0% 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31
NC 46.6 48.9% 39.2% 15
ND 40.8 37.2% 0.1%
OH 50.8 51.1% 60.8% 20 20 20 20
OK 42.8 39.2% 0.3%
OR 53.6 56.2% 93.9% 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
PA 54.2 54.1% 84.7% 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
RI 65.6 64.2% 100.0% 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
SC 44.4 47.5% 26.6% 8 8 8
SD 44.5 44.8% 9.7%
TN 50.5 50.8% 57.9% 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
TX 44.3 42.6% 3.2% 34
UT 33.6 29.7% 0.0%
VT 59.4 60.1% 99.4% 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
VA 47.3 48.5% 35.4% 13 13 13
WA 55.9 55.1% 89.9% 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
WV 54.0 47.2% 24.2% 5
WI 52.7 55.0% 89.4% 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
WY 38.3 30.8% 0.0%
Avg 52.60% 52.92% - 357 350 322 270 342 375 333 326 345 296