AN "UNSCIENTIFIC" AOL STRAW POLL WITH SURPRISING RESULTS SO FAR...

[TruthIsAll]

AOL has Kerry winning with 55% to 43% Bush AND 2% Nader with 398 EV.
And that's for over 130,000 votes cast in July.

Seems reasonable to me, because:
1) popular national polls generally understate Kerry's numbers (you know the media props up Bush).
2) polls do not reflect the undecided/other split to Kerry.

In fact, the AOL results appear to agree with a 80-90% move to Kerry.

http://www.electionguide04.com/straw_poll.adp

AOL has Kerry within 2% better of my forecast model. That's not too far off.
.................................................................
Here are some recent state projections from my simulation model vs. the AOL poll.

Kerry Kerry Bush Diff
TIA AOL AOL AOL/TIA
AL 45 42 55 3
AK 41 42 55 -1.3
AZ 47 52 46 -4.8
AR 51 51 47 -0.4
CA 57 60 38 -2.8
CO 49 56 42 -6.7
CT 63 61 36 1.6
DE 57 53 44 4.1
DC 90 86 12 4.4
FL 53 55 43 -1.7
GA 46 45 53 0.9
HI 61 55 41 5.9
ID 39 45 52 -6
IL 60 58 40 2
IN 46 47 50 -1.1
IA 54 60 38 -6.4
KS 42 52 46 -10.4
KY 45 50 49 -4.7
LA 49 39 60 10
ME 52 65 31 -12.7
MD 59 58 40 0.6
MA 67 63 34 3.7
MI 53 58 40 -5
MN 53 62 36 -9
MS 36 37 62 -0.7
MO 52 56 43 -3.9
MT 43 49 48 -6.2
NE 37 52 46 -15.5
NV 51 57 41 -5.6
NH 57 63 36 -6.3
NJ 57 55 42 1.6
NM 55 58 40 -2.7
NY 65 65 33 0
NC 49 48 31 0.9
ND 37 43 55 -5.8
OH 51 55 43 -3.9
OK 39 47 50 -7.8
OR 56 57 41 -0.8
PA 54 58 40 -3.9
RI 64 61 37 3.2
SC 48 45 54 2.5
SD 45 48 52 -3.2
TN 51 52 46 -1.2
TX 43 45 54 -2.4
UT 30 48 50 -18.3
VT 60 67 31 -6.9
VA 49 53 46 -4.5
WA 55 61 37 -5.9
WV 47 51 46 -3.8
WI 55 55 43 0
WY 31 52 48 -21.2

52.83 55 43.6 (3.1)

[bluestateguy]

1. Careful

These polls are easily freeped, and I've seen some pretty radical shifts of that poll before. The Freepers can make that map blood red if they want.

[realisticphish]

2. yeah

frankly, i pay no attention to polls (online polls, that is); after all, don't we tell people to DU a poll? and obviously the freepers freep. so it really means jack shit

:hippie: The Incorrigible Democrat

[TruthIsAll]

3. But..but...but...the numbers are consistent, they are by state

I believe the potential for freeping is limited.

In any case look at the Nader vote, a steady 2% (makes sense).

I think what we have here are 90% undecides and Naderites splitting for Kerry.

I know its not a scientific poll, but the results are interesting and not THAT unreasonable. Quite a few states are within 3% of my projections.

There is ONE very important positive factor here - no biased questions. Just who would you vote for.

I think this poll needs watching.

[realisticphish]

4. well yeah

its a good sign, and on a wide scale, neither freeping nor duing has as much of an effect. I just take every poll i see with an assload of salt; but even then, i am pleased with our numbers; and, for that matter, if it IS being freeped, well then damn, we must have kick-ass real numbers

edit: also a good point about the simple question...

:hippie: The Incorrigible Democrat