Long Term Project: Which Plains State(TX to ND) Should Democrats Target?

[displacedyankeedem]

As a long term project, which of the Plains States (TX,OK,KS,NE,SD, and ND) holds the most promise for flipping to the Dems.

Texas-Has the largest population and pockets of real liberalism (Austin springs to mind). However, it's drowned out by idiots in places like Sugarland and Flower Mound as well as by the DeLay/Bush/Perry machine and the oil industry. It also has the most advanced economy and the Southern part of the stste is trending Democratic with the influx of Latinos from Mexico and Central/South America. It's also the biggest prize, with 32 EVs.

Oklahoma-Declining economy, only one Democratic congressman (but the hope of a Democratic Senator soon, Brad Carson). However, it does have a conservative Democratic governor, Brad Henry. However, I think it's largely a black hole for Democrats.

Kansas-Very similar to OK, except no hope for a Democratic Senator, though Dennis Moore isn't a bad Congressman to have. Gov. Katherine Sebelious (I know I'm spelling it wrong) is an up and comer in the party. Also a black hole. Can we at least get Nancy Kassenbaum back?

Nebraska-At first look, it isn't very hopeful. However, they do send conservative Democrat Ben Nelson to the Senate, and Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel is a thoroughly decent man. In addition, Nebraska (as far as I know) doesn't send any real bomb throwers(like Marlyn Musgrave and Tom Tancredo) to the House. There's some hope in that, but not much.

North and South Dakota- I'm going to lump these together because they're pretty similar (from my POV at least). All Democratic congressional delegations from both states, which tend to be more liberal than most of the Plains state congresscritters (with the exception of a few US Reps from TX). However, both have Repub. Governors and are big Bush states. I get the impression that ND is slightly more Democratic than SD, but it's close.

All in all I'd put resources into ND, because it's a cheap market and they show some signs of liberalism. I also get the impression that the local Republican party is either lazy or incompetent because Dorgan, Conrad, and Pomeroy seem to have little opposition. That always helps. Generally, the farther South you go, the more Repub. you get. Maybe in 20 years TX will realign, but it's a long road to recovery for those folks.

Thoughts?

[salin]

1. I have very little real experience with any of these states

I do look forward to reading comments from those with more familiarity.

[NMDemDist2]

2. none

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

stick with the central states

[tedoll78]

3. To be honest..

I'm fully expecting Texas to flip in the next 15 years. There's something I say looks like a rising water level.. look at the county-by-country or precinct-by-precinct maps for the past few elections and see which party wins and where. Assuming that Democrats are blue, you can see that the blue pretty much covers all of the southern portion of the state. You can also see that as time goes on, the blue continues to rise up pretty consistently. Eventually, we will own Texas, just as we'll own Florida, New York, and California. And that'll give us a lock on the electoral college, forcing national politics to swing back leftward..

[displacedyankeedem]

4. Yes, but....

...not a single Democrat holds a statewide elected office. Not a promising sign. However, I do think thet the Rs have maxed out the angry white man vote as far as they can. If the Rs lose Texas, they don't have a pot to pee in.

[Zynx]

5. TX is becoming Majority-Minority.

By 2008-2010, it should be majority black and Hispanic.

That would seem to give some hope.

[coloradodem2005]

7. Isn't DeLay's district in the southern part of Texas?

I thought that it was Houston or something like that.

How is Richard Morrison doing against him?

[Zen Democrat]

10. DeLay just gerimandered himself into the district I vote in.

So I get the supreme honor of voting against that despicable roach this year. He's hated by so many people here. Who votes for him? WHy, it's the fundie Christians. He has those people believing that Christians can't be Democrats -- like it's against God's will. Oh, he's getting his. I want his ass strip-searched in jail. All you Christian Democrats please pray for Ronnie Earle's investigation in Austin!

[Endangered Specie]

6. Go for Nevada!

All Kerry needs to do is say "Yucca Mountain" about a dozen times at its all his.

[displacedyankeedem]

16. Put all the radioactive waste in Wyoming or Idaho

Now those are states that we'll never win. However, I was surprised to learn that Bush only won Montana by 4% last time around, what's up with that?

[soggy]

8. These states are the republican equivalent of Mordor...

We'd have a hell of a lot easier time with Florida, Ohio, the Carolinas, Missou... almost anywhere.

But, if you're looking long term, you might as well focus all your energy in Texas. That's the big prize and probably the best chance of these states. The hispanic population continues to soar here, and it has several big cities... and that's where the liberals live. But yeah, 20 years at least...

[Zen Democrat]

9. Texas isn't a Plains state -- it's a Southwestern State

like Arizona and New Mexico and they are ALL going completely Democratic in the next 10 years because of the Hispanic majorities just around the corner.

Oklahoma is an OIL state and just lost to us.

Kansas is historically Republican.

I'd say Nebraska is the best shot in the Plains states.

[salonghorn70]

12. I Agree

Texas is so diverse that it can't really be lumped with the other states. And PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE Never lump the great state of Texas with Oklahoma.

[hippywife]

11. OK is a weird state politically.

Anyone down here with a D after their name isn't necessarily a Dem. They run as Dems but then vote like a Republican. Brad Carson is case in point and there aren't many down here running that I would trust to vote like a Dem. The two I'm focusing on and voting for without reservation are Kalyn Free (recently endorsed by MoveOn) to take Carson's CD2 seat over DINO Dan Boren and Doug Dodd to unseat Sullivan.

Ya gotta pick your Dem's carefully down here. :eyes:

I would love to see an organized effort to unseat Delay first tho. If he survives this investigation, which hopefully he won't.

[displacedyankeedem]

13. So....

the Democrats are Republicans and the Republicans are...Fascists?

[yardwork]

14. Same is true in North Carolina. Most of the Dems may as well be pukes

I agree with those who say that Texas is going to be presenting a big window of opportunity soon for Democrats, and the party needs to be ready to take advantage.

Texas: A lot of scandals are going to blow wide open all at the same time. Misappropriation of funds under shrub and the current moran governor, Enron, other oil/energy scandals, environmental scandals, and state financial crisis. Also Delay's problems are just the first chink in a huge scandal involving gerrymandering districts using illegally funnelled campaign funds.

I predict that the state will be gerrymandered back to the Democrats and a lot of Texans are going to be very pissed at the Republican Party for a while. I hope the Democrats are ready to strike.

The other thing is that, long-term, America is going to have to develop alternative energy sources, and that may reduce the importance of oil states (and maybe not, because they are also good sources of wind and solar energy).

It is important for Democrats to get Texas back. We can't move the party in a leftward, progressive direction until we get some protection at the polls.

I think that W's shenanigans may have blown things for his party for a long time to come, if the Democrats are wise about using the opportunity this presents.

[notbush]

15. Nice to see you're hopeful but....

There are no statewide elected democrats to be found. It's been...forever since we had a dem senator . Quite frankly the reason the rethugs were successful in their effort to redistrict was because the old districts and the percentage of dem seats didn't come close to the way the state has voted the last 10 years.