What if Bush opts out of public financing?

[liberalpragmatist]

Seriously guys. I just realized this when I read Joe Trippi's prediction: http://www.theleftcoaster.com:

The real news came about in a side conversation I had with Trippi both before and after his presentation, which was on the role the internet in building up the Democratic Party's infrastructure. I introduced myself and shared my thoughts with him about the money that Rove and Bush spent defining Kerry, and stated that I wish that Kerry's people seriously consider opting out of public financing this fall so that they can take advantage of their recent fundraising success and not be blown off the air with Bush's money advantage between the conventions. Trippi then plainly told me that it was his conclusion that if Kerry and his people didn't opt out and instead took the $75 million, it may very well be that this was the turning point in a Kerry loss.

This was a sobering observation to me, to be sure, and although I agree with Trippi on this, I circled back to make sure that I understood what Trippi was saying. He confirmed his point to me, and reiterated that not only could this be the turning point against Kerry's chances, but that it was not out of the realm of possibility that Bush would wait until Kerry committed to the $75 million and its limits and then opted out himself at the GOP convention, thereby catching the Democrats flat-footed and engaged in unilateral disarmament.

[yardwork]

1. All the money in the world can't change the fact that they are lost

The Repugs are wandering in a poisonous fog of their own creation. Look at the millions of dollars they've wasted already on ads that just made them laughingstocks.

[K-W]

3. Foolish overconfidence.

Advertising controls perception like nothing else, this is a MAJOR concern.

[Frances]

2. What are the rules about environmental groups, Move-On etc

advertising? Wouldn't we be able to contribute to other groups which could then advertise for us?

[Spinzonner]

4. Doing that would so anger the Democratic base that

he could face a deluge from the 527's both on that issue and all the rest.

[K-W]

5. Why wouldnt he, didnt he do it last time, and wont they have more money

this time? It makes sense that they would, unless im missing something.

[tritsofme]

8. No, he opted out of the primaries last time, like Kerry Dean and himself

did this time.

No major party candidate has ever opted out of federal funds in the general election.

[jpgray]

6. Kerry reserved the right to change his mind based on Bush's decision

So if Bush opts out, Kerry held out the option of reevaluating himself.

[tritsofme]

11. Are you sure?

I mean, I hope you're right, but I've never seen that anywhere.

It seems that Kerry would have to use at least some of that 75 million during August, even if they keep a low profile advertising wise.

I hope there is some way for him to do this though.

[tritsofme]

7. It would seem to be a brilliant move,

The only real counter we would have is calling it possibly the mother of all flip-flops.

Bush/Cheney would basically have unlimited funds, since they could go back and get another 2 grand from everyone who already gave during the primaries, and they could keep spending like gang-busters all the way up to election day.

Let's just hope it doesn't happen.

[unkachuck]

9. I'm not sure how it works but....

.....wouldn't Teresa just spend money on 527's?.....

[Rosco T.]

10. If Kerry didn't SPEND any of the 75 mill.. could he give it back?

I swa a crawl earlier that the DEMOCRATIC PARTY would start running ads FRIDAY since Kerry/Edwards were SUSPENDING SPENDING?

Lay back and wait to see what happens?

[tritsofme]

12. There are still costs associated with the campaign

even if the DNC does ads for him.

Just paying staffers and things like that. There is no way he could spend no money in August.