NATIONAL PROJECTION/ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION MODEL
Created by TRUTHISALL
National Polling data: Pollingreport.com
State Polling data: Electoral-vote.com
COMBINED NATIONAL AND STATE PROJECTION
Assumes 70% of undecided/other to Kerry
Kerry: 52.72
Bush: 47.28
Spread: 5.43
Kerry: 96.07% probability > 269 EV
NATIONAL PROJECTION MODEL
16-Polls Latest% Proj%
Kerry: 47.94 52.84
Bush: 45.06 47.16
Spread: 2.88 5.68
Kerry: 95.35% probability > 50% of vote.
STATE ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION MODEL
Forecast vote % EV
Kerry: 52.60 322
Bush: 47.40 216
Spread: 5.19 106
Kerry wins: 968 of 1000 simulation trial runs,
for a 96.8% probability of winning the election.
ELECTORAL VOTE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
One thousand (1000) trials are run in each simulation.
Simulation I: Conservative Case
Assume: 60% of undecided/other to Kerry.
Kerry: 51.68% of the vote.
Wins: 87.6% of the trials.
Avg: 304 electoral votes.
Max: 405 electoral votes.
Simulation II: Most Likely Case
Assume: 70% of undecided/other to Kerry.
Kerry: 52.60% of the vote.
Wins: 96.8% of the trials.
Avg: 322 electoral votes.
Max: 394 electoral votes.
Simulation III: Optimistic Case
Assume: 80% of undecided/other to Kerry.
Kerry: 53.51% of the vote.
Wins: 99.3% of the trials.
Avg: 338 electoral votes.
Max: 423 electoral votes.
LAST THREE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
(in millions of votes)
Dem 138.75 52.6%
Rep 125.03 47.4%
BUSH JOB APPROVAL
The data source is PollingReport.com
2004 Avg Nwk Fox CNN Pew Harris CBS ABC Time NBC AP Zogby
Jan. 54.50 50 58 60 56 na 50 58 54 54 56 49
Feb. 49.67 48 48 51 48 51 50 50 54 na 47 na
Mar. 48.75 48 48 49 46 na 51 50 na 50 48 na
Apr. 48.80 49 50 52 48 48 46 51 49 na 48 47
May 45.20 42 48 47 44 na 41 47 46 47 48 42
June 47.00 na 48 49 48 50 42 47 na 45 48 46
July 48.20 48 47 49 46 na 45 50 50 48 50 49
NATIONAL POLL PROJECTION METHODOLOGY
The data source is PollingReport.com
Monthly polling data from:
IBD, ABC, NWK, ARG, NBC, CBS, PEW, LAT, ZOGBY, TIME
Kerry projection is based on average of ten polls adjusted by
allocating 70% of undecided/other voters to Kerry.
10 Poll Avg Trend Projection
Kerry Bush Diff Kerry Bush Diff
Jan 42.5 50.2 -11.5 46.5 53.5 -7.0
Feb 48.0 45.4 2.6 52.6 47.4 5.2
Mar 48.1 44.4 3.8 53.4 46.6 6.8
Apr 47.4 44.9 2.5 52.8 47.2 5.6
May 47.1 44.2 2.9 53.2 46.8 6.4
June 47.1 45.0 2.1 52.6 47.4 5.3
July 48.7 44.8 3.9 53.3 46.8 6.5
Kerry National Poll Projection (10 polls):
Poll avg: 48.7
+ alloc: 4.6
Projection: 53.3
KERRY NATIONAL POLL WIN PROBABILITY
Kerry% Kerry% other/undecided
Kerry Bush /Bush 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
TIME 50.0 45.0 52.6 52.5 53.0 53.5 54.0 54.5
FOX 45.0 44.0 50.6 50.5 51.6 52.7 53.8 54.9
CNN 49.0 47.0 51.0 51.0 51.4 51.8 52.2 52.6
LAT 48.0 46.0 51.1 51.0 51.6 52.2 52.8 53.4
PEW 46.0 44.0 51.1 51.0 52.0 53.0 54.0 55.0
IBD 44.0 41.0 51.8 51.5 53.0 54.5 56.0 57.5
CBS 49.0 44.0 52.7 52.5 53.2 53.9 54.6 55.3
DEMC 52.0 45.0 53.6 53.5 53.8 54.1 54.4 54.7
WP 48.0 49.0 49.5 49.5 49.8 50.1 50.4 50.7
NWK 51.0 45.0 53.1 53.0 53.4 53.8 54.2 54.6
ZOGBY 46.0 44.0 51.1 51.0 52.0 53.0 54.0 55.0
AP 45.0 49.0 47.9 48.0 48.6 49.2 49.8 50.4
NBC1 54.0 43.0 55.7 55.5 55.8 56.1 56.4 56.7
NBC2 45.0 47.0 48.9 49.0 49.8 50.6 51.4 52.2
ARG 49.0 45.0 52.1 52.0 52.6 53.2 53.8 54.4
QPAC 46.0 43.0 51.7 51.5 52.6 53.7 54.8 55.9
Mean 47.94 45.06 51.53 51.44 52.14 52.84 53.54 54.24
Std 2.77 2.08 1.82 1.75 1.68 1.69 1.76 1.89
Stdm 0.69 0.52 0.46 0.44 0.42 0.42 0.44 0.47
Before Stdm Adjustment (see below):
Upper 53.37 49.13 55.10 54.87 55.44 56.15 56.99 57.95
Lower 42.50 40.99 47.96 48.01 48.84 49.53 50.08 50.52
X 49.13 49.13 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00
Prob >
x 33.34% 2.50% 79.92% 79.44% 89.77% 95.35% 97.77% 98.74%
Adjusted Standard Error of the Mean (Stdm):
95% Confidence Limits
Range Kerry Bush
Upper 49.30 46.08
Lower 46.58 44.05
x 46.08 46.08
Prob > x 99.63% 2.50%
Probability:
95.00% Kerry within Upper-Lower Range
99.63% Kerry exceeds Bush Upper Limit
2.50% Bush exceeds his Upper Limit
99% Confidence Limits
Range Kerry Bush
Upper 49.73 46.40
Lower 46.15 43.72
x 46.40 46.40
Prob > x 98.67% 0.49%
Probability:
99.00% Kerry within Upper-Lower Range
98.67% Kerry exceeds Bush Upper Limit
0.49% Bush exceeds his Upper Limit
Notes:
Std =Standard Deviation (variability)
Stdm = Standard Error of the Mean
Stdm = Std / sqrt(n) = Std / sqrt(16) = Std/4
95% Confidence Limits formula:
Upper Limit = Mean + 1.96*Stdm
Lower Limit = Mean - 1.96* Stdm
99% Confidence Limits formula:
Upper Limit = Mean + 2.58*Stdm
Lower Limit = Mean - 2.58* Stdm
Notes:
NBC1 - Princeton Associates
NBC2 - Wall Street Journal
CNN - Gallup
WP - ABC
ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION FORECAST METHODOLOGY
State projected vote % weighted by percent of total vote in
last 3 elections.
Kerry's projected vote % for each state is based on latest
state poll,
adjusted for allocation of undecided/other voters.
Kerry probability of a state win is based on his projected
percentage of the vote (after the allocation adjustment)
Most Likely Case
Assume 70% of Undecided/other voters for Kerry
Win Prob. Pct EV
Kerry 96.8% 52.6% 322
Bush 3.2% 47.4% 216
Historical Vote, Kerry Projection and Win Probability
Dem% is Democratic % of 2-party vote in last three
presidential elections.
------- Dem Kerry Kerry EV Trials runs 1-10 of 1000
------- Hist Proj. Prob. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
State 52.60% 52.60% 96.8% 330 377 311 361 320 328 335 330 322 335
AL 44.8 45.0 10.6 9 9
AK 37.6 40.7 1.0
AZ 48.8 53.9 83.5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
AR 55.2 50.6 56.0 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
CA 57.4 58.1 97.9 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55
CO 48.8 49.3 43.1 9 9 9 9 9
CT 57.7 62.6 99.9 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
DE 56.8 57.1 96.2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
DC 90.3 90.4 100.0 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
FL 50.7 50.1 51.0 27 27 27 27 27
GA 47.6 45.7 14.1 15 15
HI 59.0 60.9 99.7 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
ID 35.7 39.0 0.3
IL 57.9 60.0 99.4 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
IN 44.8 45.9 15.3 11
IA 51.8 51.1 60.8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
KS 42.4 41.6 1.8
KY 46.7 46.2 17.1
LA 49.2 44.4 8.1
ME 57.1 52.3 71.7 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
MD 57.8 58.6 98.4 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
MA 65.3 66.7 100.0 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
MI 54.7 55.1 89.9 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17
MN 55.7 51.2 61.8 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
MS 44.3 36.3 0.0
MO 52.5 51.1 60.8 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
MT 44.9 42.8 3.6
NE 37.5 36.5 0.0
NV 49.9 51.9 68.3 5 5 5 5 5
NH 51.7 54.7 88.0 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
NJ 56.5 53.9 83.5 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
NM 53.0 56.2 93.9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
NY 62.6 65.0 100.0 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31
NC 46.6 47.5 26.6 15 15
ND 40.8 37.2 0.1
OH 50.8 50.5 55.0 20 20 20
OK 42.8 39.2 0.3
OR 53.6 55.5 91.5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
PA 54.2 54.1 84.7 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
RI 65.6 64.2 100.0 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
SC 44.4 47.5 26.6 8 8 8 8
SD 44.5 44.8 9.7 3
TN 50.5 51.8 67.4 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
TX 44.3 42.6 3.2 34 34
UT 33.6 29.7 0.0
VT 59.4 60.1 99.4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
VA 47.3 48.5 35.4 13 13 13 13
WA 55.9 54.8 88.5 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
WV 54.0 49.6 46.0 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
WI 52.7 52.8 75.8 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
WY 38.3 30.8 0.0
Avg 52.60% 52.60% 96.8% 330 377 311 361 320 328 335 330 322 335