Bush's Poll Numbers Show Underlying Weakness

[louis c]

The most recent Zogby poll shows deeper trouble for President Bush than just the horse race. Mr. Bush has fallen in key areas while Senator Kerry has shored up numerous constituencies in his base.

The most important group.... is the undecideds, and Mr. Bush's standing among them is weak.

Kerry is retaining a similar vote to Gore's Jewish vote in 2000. Mr. Bush is running far behind his Hispanic vote total in 2000. Kerry is running very strong among Catholics.

Bush is showing weakness even in the South.

Blue states, which favored Gore in 2000, favor Kerry by an overwhelming 12 points, yet the red states which favored Bush in 2000, give the President just a 2 point advantage. Kerry holds a huge lead among single voters. Young voters (18-29), which Gore carried by just 2 points in 2000, has Kerry winning in a landslide, 53%-33%.


Kerry leads 2-1 among voters who did not vote in 2000 (50%-25%), leads 3-1 among voters who voted Nader in 2000 (75%-25%),and he is stealing twice as many Bush voters in 2000, than he is losing Gore voters (8%-4%).


http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=849

[Cloud]

1. Undecideds will always be easy for the challenger to pick up

After all, if they liked Bush then they wouldn't be undecideds would they? This is great news.

I can't wait for November 2nd man. Pulling the lever for Kerry will be great. What will be even greater is going to free republic on election night and watching the meltdown. It will be better than sex.

[Veggie Meathead]

3. The underlying weakness of Bush is Bush.Or is it Cheney? Or

is it Rumsfeld? Or is it Condi? Or is it Powell? Or is it----?

[Cloud]

7. You forgot Ashcroft

Of all the cabinet members he pisses me off the most.

[Veggie Meathead]

9. Sorry, you are so right!

[louis c]

5. By the way

these numbers were compiled before the DNC.

[formernaderite]

14. I hope so....

...the undecideds are basically the uninformed. The people who pay attention the week before the election and go hmmm...who do I like?

Wouldn't it be great if the democrats would focus on the 50% who don't vote at all, instead of the ignorant who don't really care.

[senseandsensibility]

2. Thanks for the good news

which I'm sure will be reported without delay on all the cable networks (not).:toast:

[tcfrogs]

4. One of the regulars here (TruthIsAll???)

uses 70% of the undecideds to add to Kerry. Says it's based on historical precedent. Makes sense to me.

Unfortuntely, things will most likely bounce back for the Repugs, probably after convention time. Marathon, not a sprint, folks.

[louis c]

8. Numbers are before convention

and undecideds trend to the challenger in every case since 1948.

The low was just over 60% for McGovern in 1972, the high is 80% for Reagan in 1980. All others fall in between. Clinton and Perot combined for 75% in 1992. All others fall in between. 70% of undecideds is a safe bet for Kerry this year.

[Zynx]

6. I saw a WSJ article that said 70% of undecideds don't like Bush.

That is great news for us.

[louis c]

10. kick

[Mountainman]

11. And the big question still asked on CNN

"Why can't Kerry gain any advantage over Bush?"

Last night Wolfe and Woodruff were asking those kind of questions of Mary Beth Cahil and she gave great answers. They asked her why Bush was up 18 points on Kerry when it comes to terror and she listed all the things that Kerry had more points than Bush. Bush has one thing and Kerry has all the rest.

[The Doctor.]

12. Back to Haunt them

One of the truly arrogant things this 'administration' did when initially in office was to decline the use of certain well-established criteria for adjusting the national census.
For decades the census had been very scientifically and meticulously adjusted to reflect populations who were bereft of contact with the more general populous.
Then, in a very Rove-like move, the administration declined the employment of the census adjustment in order to shore up certain congressional districts. A kind of 'hands-off' jerrymandering so to speak.
I argued then that doing so would become self-correcting as disenfranchised populations found conditions deteriorating due to lack of recognition.

Boy do I hope this Bites their arrogant posteriors!

[louis c]

13. kick