Don't freak but look at these Partial NEWSWEEK Poll numbers

[59millionmorons]

Partial NEWSWEEK Poll

This from MSNBC today after Bush speech.

THURSDAY SAMPLE
BUSH/CHENEY 47
KERRY/EDWARDS 49

FRIDAY SAMPLE
BUSH/CHENEY 41
KERRY/EDWARDS 54

Also, tied on handling of Iraq.

http://dailykos.com/

[lancdem]

1. I think you mean Kerry's speech

:)

Edit: Mea culpa. You meant Bush's speech today in Ohio.

[Frances]

2. I am freaking

Thanks for posting

[Beetwasher]

3. The Undecideds Were Merely Waiting for Kerry (Got Link?)

They had made up their mind about Bush and were just waiting for Kerry to make his move. Now they know. These numbers will NOT move much. Bush has had almost 4 years to make his case and he failed. The Repub convention will do little to nothing to help Bush. Once they go Kerry, they ain't coming back. It's just about over except for the desperation and whining...or rigging...

I really want to see this poll, anyone got a link yet?

[59millionmorons]

5. Frank Luntz

This actually falls right in line with Frank Luntz's focus group on MSNBC, were they had a group of twenty voters on. Ten of the twenty voted for Bush in 2000. When asked how many will now vote for Bush only 5 raised there hand.

[lancdem]

6. That is good news

[ItsMyParty]

10. Demdem--there was another part of that focus group too that was

very exciting for us. On Wednesday night they asked how many voted for Bush in 2000 and 10 raised their hands (one half) and then asked how many of the 10 were going to vote for Bush and like you said, 5 raised their hands BUT it didn't mean the other 5 would vote Kerry. After Thursday speech, 4 of those 5 who were not going to vote for Bush again DEFINITELY committed to vote for Kerry. So, it isn't just enough to not vote for Bush, it's who was swayed. And Kerry got 4 out of 5 of them. And this was Ohio!!!!

[59millionmorons]

14. Point well taken

This was conservative Cincinnati.

[calimary]

11. The only thing that concerns me is that if these people WERE

swayed by what they saw of Kerry (and YAY for that), how firm is that change-of-heart? Can they be as easily swayed by the republi-CON JOB at the end of the month? It'll be FOUR LONG NAUSEATING DAYS of propaganda and showmanship and pro-bush pizazz. And, face it, he CAN be a charmer. Like a snake-oil salesman in a traveling medicine show. He's a sweet-talkin' guy. Many people, unfortunately (and THESE could be among them), WANT to give him the benefit of the doubt, "after all we've been through together." He likely will win some of them back. Especially if our guys get complacent and go back to sleep at the wheel and don't seize the initiative and continue to make a forceful presentation and head them off at the pass.

This is, unfortunately, temporary. Hopefully we can keep buttressing it, and Kerry/Edwards will, too, to stave off a lot of the fall-back. Hopefully Kerry DID win some people over, permanently.

I was talking, just a few minutes ago, with a woman I know who is a pretty staunch Republican. A nurse. A mom (son's grown). She's a caregiver to my seriously-ill mother-in-law. She listens to country music radio all the time, doesn't have cable so she doesn't watch o'reilly and "Hardball" or any of the rest. Says she doesn't listen to limbaugh. She still likes bush. She told me she was NOT impressed at all with Edwards and thinks he's shallow. BUT: she also said she watched Kerry Thursday night and changed her mind about him. Beforehand, she did not like him at all. Then she watched him and as she put it - "I was impressed." She likes him better now. But she still wants to see bush and hear him out. I even asked - "you HAVEN'T heard it all from bush ALREADY?" No, she said. She wants to wait and hear what he has to say. She still likes him. No matter WHAT facts I give her and insights and all.

For example, she also immediately expressed doubt when I pointed out what a lie it was to link Saddam and al Qaeda, or Saddam and 9/11. I get on this soap box with her, sometimes, as a former journalist, about how BAD my former industry has served the country as far as brokering facts, truth, and complete information. I said the fact that much of America still thinks Saddam and Osama were in cahoots proves this. She went straight onto this, challenging my assertion. I had to explain to her at some length about how Saddam was a secularist, and Osama wants the religiosos to control everything, so in effect, it's like Saddam wants separation of church and state and Osama does not, and Osama wants something more like Iran has, where the ayatollas rule everything, so they COULDN'T POSSIBLY be brothers-in-arms. I had to explain to her about Sunni versus Shiite. She still wasn't quite sure, and did one of those "...well, I dunno..." (a COMMON response among folks like her, when you present them with details and facts, and it doesn't fit with their preconceived views that they're already REALLY cozy and comfy with and they frankly don't REALLY want to be shaken out of). I hope at least I gave her something to think about.

These people WANT to believe the crap bush tells them. Especially the way he and his henchmen PACKAGE it. As our own Class Warrior here says - "MESSAGE MATTERS!"

So I'm still working on her, and grateful California is NOT a battleground state. I'd be much more concerned if it were. And I did tell her that I will KEEP working on her, and that I hoped she wouldn't mind because I was NOT GOING TO LET UP until she was convinced. So maybe she'll never be convinced. Fine. But then again, I'll never shut up, either.

[lancdem]

18. I consider it progress that your neighbor now likes Kerry

Staunch Repubs aren't normally considered swing voters.

[Beetwasher]

22. I Disagree that The Bump is Temporary

Once people's minds are made up, it's unlikely they'll change them back. They've had four years to make up their mind about Bush and they've decided they want someone new. Once Kerry makes his case, he's got them and there's no going back. Bush will have NOTHING new to offer the to make them swing once again.

It's a good sign that even staunch Repubs like your friend are having second thoughts, the swing voters are not nearly as staunch as she is...

[belle]

26. Has she seen F911? If not, can you convince her to?

[UdoKier]

4. It's nice, heartening and all...

...but as they always say, the only poll that counts...

[Capn Sunshine]

7. Those same undecideds are called "swing votes" for a reason

Without hammering away at Bush during the convention, they'll swing right back.

I hope that strategists realize this. This has always been a finnesse game; and the DLC hasn't won it since 96. Things are different this time because the left wing of the party realizes what's at stake and has agreed to show unity, so maybe that will help.

Of course we still get called a lot of things by the keyboard contingent but we have thick skins. I can deliver my county , formerly republican, to Kerry, with a coallition of the progressives. Our message remains "the alternative is just too awful to contemplate"

So there you have it.

[Kahuna]

21. Well..Frank Luntz is a professional when it comes to these things...

and he said that bush is in serious trouble. Would a professional wingnut pollster say that unless it's true? I don't think so.

[LittleApple81]

8. WE HAVE TO REDOUBLE OUR EFFORTS. A scared Bush is DANGEROUS!

Vigilance on the media (as much as I hate the talking heads, we must keep the pressure and the proof of the rotten job they have done).

Preparation for the lies, smears, etc. etc.

[City Lights]

9. Kerry's the man.

I placed an order through his site the other day and just received an email that some of the stuff I ordered (buttons and lapel pins) are out of stock and on backorder. The campaign is just getting started and they are already out of stock!

[calimary]

12. Heck, I'm STILL waiting for my Kerry/Edwards stickers. Ordered 'em

on John/John Day. Still waiting.

[City Lights]

13. So are they overwhelmed by orders, or are they unorganized?

I'm hoping for overwhelmed by orders.

[59millionmorons]

15. I'm waiting too

I heard they are out of stock

[WinterStorm]

24. I know allot about retail

It has nothing to do with disorganization when it's right after a convention.

You never know the amount of merchandise that you are going to sell so most of the time you end up running out.

[proud patriot]

16. Chain me down

cause I'm Freaking :D

[rustydog]

17. Wait for the Republican bounce after their convention

This is a given...Bush will rebound after their lie-fest.
Bush will wrap his body around the flag, hug a few veterans and probably force amputees to hobble across the stage with pro-Bush buttons on...it is what neonazis excel at, propaganda and stirring the ignorant masses.

Polls are nothing..they poll people who voted. do you have any idea how many people have registered to vote because of Iraq, because their job vanished due to Kenny-Boy's Enron, tech jobs outsourced to India and beyond, people chosing food over badly-needed prescription medications? How many 18 year olds will vote this year because they don't want to be drafted? How many of these people were included in these tilted polls?

Bush is in deep trouble, but I really don't think the poll reflects this accurately because it is a post-convention bounce you are seeing, a natural occurrence.

Ther is a deep resentment in America, the two Americas Edwards refers to and Bush fails to see it as a threat because he believes we are blind sheep who will follow him anywhere. So does the right-wing media and because they despise us so much, they have misjudged the "enemy" and I believe it will surprise the shit out of Karl Rove, ABC,CBS, NBC and FOX come November 2nd.

[lancdem]

20. I'm sure Bush will get some bounce

but the incumbent's bounce usually is less than the challenger's.

[Beetwasher]

23. I Think People May Be Surprised at How Small His Bounce Is

I'm predicting hardly any bounce at all. I would not be surprised if there was NO bounce or even a drop after the convention...

[DemMother]

28. Based on his previous bounces (Hussein, handover),

which have been growing smaller and more short-lived, I'm not expecting all that much.

[belle]

29. Also, there's a good chance the convention won't go so well...

I keep harping on this, but: they're coming to a city where 75% of the people (at least, by last count) do NOT approve of them. Where we know exactly how much they've helped us after 9/11, lip service notwthstanding. Where it'll be about 100+ degrees + humidity, traffic will be blocked for 30 blocks for their arrival, and people will be in a BAD mood. That's without even taking into consideration the actual speakers. I can't imagine it'll look like anything other than the Munsters gallery for most of it...

[nodictators]

25. Let's hope Bush's bounce is a ...

..."Dead Cat" bounce.

[Zynx]

27. Incumbents usually get very little bounce.

[Kahuna]

19. After the debates, Kerry will win in a landslide. Poor bushie...

NOT!!!!!!

[Bluebear]

30. kick!

[Tight_rope]

31. Kick

[Pachamama]

32. I'm Freaking because who knows what the Neo-cons will do now...

:scared: :scared: