What would be your scenario if we were to withdraw from Iraq ?

[kentuck]

I would think there would be something like a civil war until another warlord, or someone like Saddam, or some religious group, like the Shiites, took power and the people gave them legitimacy - because of fear. There would be a "security" force to take care of those that might disagree.

There is still an infrastructure of schools and universities in Iraq. I could envision a time of chaos if the US were to leave. But, there will also be a time of chaos if the US stays. It is going to be bad either way.

However, I think the Iraqis might find a solution to the chaos quicker if left to their own devices than if the US remains there "pretending" to secure the country.

But Iraq does have a secular history, under Saddam. I would think that the next leader of Iraq will be similar to Saddam. He will be vicious toward his enemies. He will use fear as a weapon to keep his power. It will not be a democracy.

[Minstrel Boy]

1. Get the UN in there in a big way

I want to see an orderly and complete withdrawl of US forces, and a UN mandate to establish order with the goal of a speedy return to Iraqi self government.

Will I see it? Not with a Bush in the White House. But the longer sovereignty is denied, the more humiliations and crimes are committed by an occupying army, the more likely a truly representative Iraqi government will be vehemently anti-American. In whose interest is that?

[terryg11]

2. agreed

the UN has to get involved since they are the only neutral, multi-national force I can think of. They are needed to help set up a government that will be honestly for the good of Iraq and not serving some big business' special interests.
Also, full disclosure of just what the contracts and deals that are in place between "Iraq" and any businesses and contractors that are helping with the rebuilding of Iraq, that way we can be sure they won't be bleeding the people of Iraq dry for decades to come.

[Eradicate_Tyranny]

4. Multi-national yes, "neutral" no

terryg11 writes:

"the UN has to get involved since they are the only neutral, multi-national force I can think of."

The UN may be multi-national, but they are certainly not "neutral."

Do you think the numerous dictatorship UN member states want to see freedom and democracy take root in Iraq?

[terryg11]

8. true

may not be 100% neutral but still the best hope for overseeing the Iraqi government getting on it's feet unless a true statesman took the reins in the US and invested much time over there.

added: is Jimmy Carter available?

[newyawker99]

10. Hi Eradicate_Tyranny!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Friar]

15. welcome

:toast:

[Eradicate_Tyranny]

3. Return to "self government"??

Minstrel Boy writes:

"a UN mandate to establish order with the goal of a speedy return to Iraqi self government"

When was the last time the Iraq people enjoyed "self government"?

[Yupster]

5. US out, someone in

If the US gets out, then someone will have to step in.

If we just left, there will be a horribly bloody civil war between the sunnis who controlled things under Saddam, and the Shi-ites who were horribly oppressed under Saddam.

If the Shi-ites (majority) win, there will be a bloodbath of revenge against the Sunnis who massacred them in 1991.

If the Sunnis can reestablish their dominance, well we already saw what they did in 1991.

My guess is the Kurds would stay out and declare their independance.

We can't just leave. We are responsible for getting order before we leave.

[IndianaGreen]

6. Iraqi civilization predates America's by thousand of years!

They can take care of themselves better than we can take care of our own shit!

[Clete]

7. Which way do you want the baby divided?

We do have to get help and the UN is the logical agency until an Iraqi government can be put in place. We also have a mess in Afghanistan we are responsible for. But we can't do it alone.

[Clete]

9. Also, maybe a coalition of democracies

might be willing to fix these messes if we hand President Bush and his cabal over to them to be tried for war crimes in the Hague as security.

[LeftHander]

11. Good question....my stab

Unfortunatly there is not going to be a pullout. And the UN will not come in unless it is calling the shots.

But if we did pull out without UN support it is likly that Saddam would emerge again, there would be some massive killings of US sympathizers and Saddam would declare victory over the US and the Arab world would support him. So would the majority of Iraqi people. Bush will surely lose the election then as the American people will ALL realize what a huge mistake was made.

The only option for Bush and the neocons is to keep in control, prolong and escalate the war so they can keep controlling the message. They will also hope for another 911 style attack on US soil. It would play well into the GOP power control strategy.



The US is not going to pullout in fact it is going to escalate and resistence will become more and more organized. This is not going to end until tens of thousands of US lives are lost and millions of Iraqis are dead.

Bush and the dumbasses who started this war walked right into a trap. Those of us who opposed the war saw the situation as a lose/lose for all parties. (except for Halliburton who is making millions)

This war was so wrong. Bush and his necons are now up against the wall and they being the "compassionate conservatives" they are going to get nasty. We will likely see the complete destabilization of the middle east.

There is no way out for Bush now. We lost this war the minute we invaded. Modern warfare's definition of success is when the country invaded is blackend and the citizens are beaten into submission. I am talking total destruction.

[NNN0LHI]

12. Think we had better forget about the UN and start facing the truth here?

Former UN chief: bomb was payback for collusion with US

http://www.sundayherald.com/36222

THE reason the United Nations headquarters in Baghdad were bombed is because the UN has been taken over by the US and turned into a “dark joke” and a “malignant force”, according to one of the UN’s most internationally respected former leaders.

Denis Halliday, the former UN Assistant Secretary-General and UN Humanitarian Co-ordinator in Iraq, attacked the UN as an aggressive arm of US foreign policy in the immediate aftermath of the truckbomb attack on the UN mission in Baghdad which killed at least 23 people – many of whom were Halliday’s former friends and colleagues.

“The West sees the UN as a benign organisation, but the sad reality in much of the world is that the UN is not seen as benign,” said Halliday, who was nominated for the 2001 Nobel Peace Prize. “The UN Security Council has been taken over and corrupted by the US and UK, particularly with regard to Iraq, Palestine and Israel.

“In Iraq, the UN imposed sustained sanctions that probably killed up to one million people. Children were dying of malnutrition and water-borne diseases. The US and UK bombed the infrastructure in 1991, destroying power, water and sewage systems against the Geneva Convention. It was a great crime against Iraq.

more

[catmandu57]

13. The entire region is going to explode

we have put a horrible mess into motion, the U.N. isn't going to be of any help, the iraqis hate them as much as they hate americans. The Kurds will carve out an independent state in the north and take as much of Turkey as they can, creating war #1. The Sunnis and Shiites will fight it out creating war#2. Iran and Syria will see the perfect timing to get payback on the Israelis, and with the Palastinians create war#3.
We're stuck in this, Britain is going to pull out, all of our central american, and polish allies will say enough. The world will descend into chaos and energy crisis.
The religiously insane will be egging on Armegeddon, the neocons will be pulling the rug out from everyone here, social programs other than defense spending will be history.
The constitution is history, kiss your civil rights goodbye. History will show that ww3 started on 19 march 2003, and if we make it through this alive we certainly won't make it through intact as a nation, because it's going to spread here as well.
The cold civil war that we've been in will erupt, nobody or nothing will ever be the same.

[NNN0LHI]

17. The only thing you forgot was that while all of this is going on...

...North Korea will be building nukes just as fast as they can and refining their ICBM capability as the world burns and Bush keeps fiddling around somewhere else. The inmates are truly in charge of the asylum.

Don

[Friar]

14. It's not our business

Iraq for Iraqis, I say. If they want a fundie Islamic gummint so be it.

[Booberdawg]

16. We were wrong to go in there in the first place ...

... but now that we fucked up the place we gotta stay there and clean it up! I would not support a withdrawal of US troops right now.

[NNN0LHI]

18. Tell me what you are expecting Iraq to look like after "we" get done...

...there and finish cleaning it up? And how will we know when it is sufficiently "cleaned up" before "we" leave? Will Bush give another speech on an aircraft carrier to tell us it is all over and we have won again? Specifically what is your idea of an exit strategy, and how long do you think it will take to complete all of this?

Don

[Mari333]

19. Let the chips fall where they may

bring the US troops home now.

www.bringthemhomenow.com