2003 Governors' Races

[jiacinto]

What is happening in LA, KY, and MS? Could we win all three?

[Rowdyboy]

1. Primary runoff was last Tuesday...

Both nominee for Lt Governor and State Treasurer are well-qualified and well-funded blacks who represent different segments of the minority community here. This is the first time this century any black has been nominated for statewide office this century.If their turnout is high, and it should be, Musgrove just might have a chance. Teachers and state employees have reason to want him re-elected, the new Nissan plant is humming with activity, and Musgrove has enough money to run a competitive race-no matter how much Cheney/Bush extort for Barbour. Its going to be close.

In Kentucky, I read, Chandler whipped Fletcher pretty soundly in the first debate. I think the race is pretty much a tossup.

In Louisiana, Blanco, Ieyoub, Leach and Jindal are all in competition. Kathleen Blanco has white conservative Dems, Ieyoub has labor and law enforcement, Leach has 10 million to spend and populist appeal. Jindal has Gov Foster's endorsement, unlimited Rovian support and is thought to be coming on strong. He's only 31 and from India which could hurt in Louisiana. Right now, A two Democrat runoff appears entirely possible.

[jiacinto]

2. So

Could Chandler pull this off then?

[Rowdyboy]

3. From what I've read....

Chandler is hitting Bush hard (surprising?) and coming on strong. Can't cite the articles right now (it was several days ago) but I think its genuinely up in the air.

I've also been known to grasp at straws before. Hope thats not the case now...

[jiacinto]

4. Ok

Thanks.

[mndemocrat_29]

5. Fairly certain Blanco is leading in Louisiana

Jindal and Ieyoub are running neck-and-neck for the second spot. The possibility of a Democratic runoff doesn't seem that unlikely.

In Louisiana, D. C.'s Political Report is predicting:
Governor-Party switch (Democratic Gain)
Lt. Governor-Retain (Democratic Hold)
Atty. Gen.-Retain (Democratic Hold)
For all the other races, they're siding with the incumbents.

In Mississippi, D. C.'s Political Report is predicting:
Governor-Democratic Hold
Lt. Governor-Repuke Hold (Though it is a 4 star race (ie a very high profile race). We need to beat Amy Tuck!!!!
Treasurer-Party Switch (Repuke Gain) Does anyone know anything about this race?

In Kentucky, D. C.'s Political Report is predicting:
Governor-Democratic Hold (though it is a 5 star race)
They do have, however, Repuke pickups predicted in the Auditor's and Agricultural Commissioner's races. Does anyone know how those races are going? I know that Alice Baesler (wife of ex-Rep. Scotty Baesler is running)

[jiacinto]

6. I don't know

Maybe some KY DUers can comment.

[Rowdyboy]

9. Mississippi Treasurer...

4 term incumbent retire to work for a New York bond agency. Democratic runoff winner is 47 year old black banking executive with experience in state government-Gary Anderson. Republican nominee is state legislator Tate Reeves who has no banking experience that I'm aware of.

I think both Anderson and Lt Gov nominee Barbara Blackmon (also black) both have serious chances. They're both well financed, black turnout should be enormous, and both are very articulate.

Maybe a new day in Mississippi. May not. We'll know in November.

[jiacinto]

10. Isn't MS 40% Black or more?

If they get out their base and perhaps can get 30-40% of the white vote it might just work out.

[Rowdyboy]

11. I think total black voting age population is 37%

Voter registration figures probably would drop somewhat...

[jiacinto]

12. Ok

How much white support would they need to win?

[CMT]

7. I think we could win all three

Louisiana is looking better--hopefully top two vote getters will be Dems. Kentucky is tightening--Chandler to his credit is running against Bush's economic record and seems to be helping. Mississippi, I think will be the toughest, but Musgrove is the incumbent and if he can get teachers and African-American turnouts then he could win.

[mndemocrat_29]

8. I also think that we could take all three

All three could be won. I was slightly worried about Chandler, but he's started to come about and is looking stronger with each passing week.

(And though it receives ten times the publicity of these races, California is also a race I think we can win).

[goobergunch]

13. IMHO all are winable...

ranging from LA (leans for) to MS (total toss-up) to KY (leans very slightly against).

[Dob Bole]

14. This could greatly help us..

All 3 races are winnable. And all 3 are in the South. Imagine how this would look going toward the 2004 election if Democrats won all three.

[jiacinto]

15. Yeah

I know.

[mndemocrat_29]

16. Absolutely

If we could take all three of these, not only would Democrats receive an enormous boost, but the news media would constantly be saying:

"Democrats huge victories in the South in 2003 indicate that the region is very much in play for 2004"