John Zogby--The Race Is Still Kerry’s To Lose

[59millionmorons]

But the Massachusetts Senator still has aces in his hand that he can play. First, the President’s numbers are still not good. Despite a few outlier polls that show a large single digit or even a double digit lead for Mr. Bush, my poll has the President’s lead at only 3% and the average of all the public polls (as of this writing) is only a 4 point lead. Mr. Bush is only polling at 46% to 48% both nationally and in many key battleground states, hardly victory territory. And his barometric readings are still more negative than positive.

The best that can be said is that the President’s numbers are still better than Mr. Kerry’s. But my polling reveals another important fact – Mr. Kerry has more room for growth than the President. He has to first consolidate his base with an anti-war message that his base wants. He need not worry about accusations of flip-flopping on this issue because that is what the other side says about him and they are never going to vote for him under any circumstances. This alone will bring him to parity with the President in the polls.

From there we see a startling statistic: only 16% to 20% of undecided voters feel that the President deserves to be re-elected. Forty-percent of this relatively small group feel that it is time for someone new. They seem to have their minds made up about the President and have been given no reason to vote for Mr. Kerry. What is most important to this group? They agree with Mr. Bush on values, leadership, the war on terror, and likeability. They prefer Mr. Kerry on the economy, health care, the war, and education.

The debates will take on a special significance this year. The stakes are extremely high. Will Mr. Kerry be able bridge the likeability gap? Can he find his bumper sticker messages to make his point to those who want a change? Will he be able to put the President on the defensive on the war, health care, the economy, etc. without appearing to be bullying a leader that Americans seem to like? And can he make a connection with the war in Iraq spinning out of control and a squandered opportunity to pursue Osama bin Laden with full global support by alienating long-time US allies and dissipating US troop strength?

Will the President be able to force Mr. Kerry on the defensive by revealing the Senator’s changing positions? Can he do as he did successfully during the Republican National Convention by effectively linking his leadership on the war on terrorism with the ongoing war in Iraq? Can he finesse the three debates by just showing himself to be a plainspoken guy next door?

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=873

[Inland]

1. I trust Zogby skill, record nt

[speedoo]

2. Heh. Compare Zogby's analysis to that crapola from Frank Newport.

Oh but never mind.

Frank Newport is an idiot so it would not be fair.