So Kerry won the debate.. What will that do to the polls?

[andino]

I know people hate prediction threads but I love them. And I know that the national polls don't mean crap. What I am looking for is an average in the Battle Ground states.

I give Kerry a 2 point swing after this debate.

If he wins the next debate I give him another 2% points.


What do you guys and galls think?

[Mojambo]

1. How about this

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x937991

[fujiyama]

2. My guess is

that it will bring this match to a dead heat once again several battlegrounds - Kerry will do better in the upper midwest (WI, MN, and IA), where things have been either narrowing (MN) or showing Bush edge ahead (IA and WI). I think FL and OH will tighten too...

I also think that Kerry will be up by a comfortable amount in NJ and MD, two states which Gore won by a lot and which showed Kerry with huge leads earlier, but have shown the race to have narrowed considarbly.

My hope is to have Kerry with a huge lead in battlegrounds, but I'll be realistic. Most Bush supporters will be unswayed and they'll excuse Bush's performance as evidence to them that Bush is human and shares their values.

Also, there are two more debates...Any improvement by Bush will be spun as a "comeback" by the media.

[oscar111]

3. Hate radio will convince all that Kerry's points were lies

all lies.

It will take hate radio four days of long explanations... but they have that, and more time, too.

Hate radio will wipe out our debate win, and the two wins to come.

That is why we need aflcio and DNC to subsidize AAR, so AAR can grow into the RW states, and negate hate radio's awesome power.

AAR can grow faster with subsidies, especially if subsidies are enough to fully buy stations.

I hope i am wrong about losing our win.
Whatever, we need a stronger radio voice, and FAST. It should have been in every state since 1921.

[EST]

4. Tonight's results will assure that Kerry is solidly in the

game. This will also influence a bunch of the fence sitters in the barely Kerry states. The r/w hate radio machine will make sure that the thugs stay in their places, but there was no hope for them, anyhow. BTW did you know(on Democracy Now) two leftie freespeech radio stations were raided and shut down this past week? Assets siezed, etc. Shows tthe power of Rush and co, as well as the fact that to the right wing, freedom of speech only means that if you agree with them.

[Lexingtonian]

5. not that easy to say

I used to think I knew what the polling averages were, but it's pretty dang fuzzy even when you adjust for the biases the different pollsters tend to have.

NH: firms up a 49-46 Kerry lead (Nader ~3%, down from 6% in 2000)
PA: 1-2% movement, to a 48-45 or 49-46 Kerry lead (Nader is at ~3%)
FL: 1% movement, to a 50-48 Kerry lead (Nader/3rds are at 1%)
OH has been moving a little in Kerry's direction in the past few days. Bush will lead by 47-45, Nader gets 1%, but it becomes winnable for Kerry. (It may move to Kerry once he explains his jobs-related policies, like the healthcare coverage bit, in the next debate(s).)
NV: the present polling is missing a relatively large proportion of the electorate, the newly registered, so the published numbers are wrong. It's probably tied at 48 there, with Nader/3rds at 1% and the Undecideds leaning to Kerry.
IA and WI: Bush hangs on at 49-47; it's going to take Edwards going there with some skepticism about the Good Christian image to Bush to change things there.

[T Town Jake]

6. Oh, he'll win the election easily enough...

...this debate was just icing on the cake. I've been saying this for months.

[JCMach1]

7. 4-6% This was the best performance by a candidate since

Clinton ('96) and Clinton ('92/ second debate) (that performance poll was according to Gallup by the way)

The pre-game to the next debate... "What will * have to do to convice voters he is Presidential material?"

[Zorbet55]

8. Unfortunately, not as much as we want

Air America correctly pointed out that Bush's hardcore support would support his lies, even if they caught him in bed with a 12 year old. I just hope that it moves some independents and Naderites to see just how important it is to replace him.