So... October Surprise next week, you think?

[Cat Atomic]

I've got to think the Bush team expected Bush to at least tie in the first debate- the one focussing on his perceived strength (foreign policy), and his opponents' perceived weakness (flip-flopping). Instead, it's turned into a mild feeding frenzy on GW Bush's idiocy- even amongst his hardcore supporters at Free Republic.

If he took a hit from the first debate, he'll be bludgeoned by the second, where he has to talk about domestic issues.

If they have a distraction to offer, or some way to ditch the next debate, this would be the time to use it.

[Huckebein the Raven]

1. I'm going still going with Osama (or someone resembling him)

but I'm more concerned with what crap they are going to pass today since it's Friday and Mt. St. Helens is filling the news.

[dave123williams]

2. Here are the possibilities about a 'suprise'...

1. Suprise! We got Bin Laden!

Will the country give him credit for the capture, or wonder if it's a cynical ploy, that they were saving him for the election? When you have the Whitehouse writing the speeches that the prime minister of Iraq is giving before our Congress, it's not going to pass the smell test.


2. Suprise! We just got bombed! The port of Los Angeles is smoking rubble!

Will the country rally behind Bush, or vote him out for yet *another* hit on our soil under his watch? I know how I'll be voting no matter what happens.

[Cat Atomic]

3. Or...

3. Surprise! We're bombing Iranian nuclear installations to keep you safe (nevermind the question of the installantions' actual function).

They could then say the president is "occupied with matters of state and unable to take part in the debate", or something along those lines.

[Vickers]

4. I could see that as a reason for Tricky Dick missing the VP debate

since he would be busy, but why would Georgie miss any debates? Not like he has a say in any of the important decisions or anything.

:spank:

[OneTwentyoNine]

5. Can't be an attack,Bush claims to be keeping us safe...

Nope,they have to pull OBL out of a hat or foil a major,major attack on Murikans that was just hours from happening.

David

[Tims]

6. Is their any credible evidence

that Osama is still alive? Would the finding of a year old corpse give a boost to Georgie the same as capturing him in a spider hole?

One thing I said many months ago was that I felt that if Bush did have him in a deep freeze somewhere, Osama's supporters would know it even if the American public didn't and I believed there would have been an immediate terrorist retaliation in response that would have exposed the whole thing.

The desperation and viciousness of the Bush campaign and Bush's obvious stress may mean they may not have an October surprise, at least not one they can pull off as easily as they had hoped. If they have a plan to get Osama, it has to be timed very close to election day, because if it is too early, a retaliatory attack by the terrorist before the elections could backfire on Bush. Any attack after election day - they don't care.

I still believe 9/11 was a "Let It Happen On Purpose" rather than a "Made It Happen" event. I think actually planning such an even would provide too many fingerprints and involve too many people to keep under wraps. Likewise a "Let It Happen" attack as an October surprise would not be easy to time and time is running out. It all depends on how desperate they are and if they think they can completely suppress opposition in a second term as to whether or not they would actually risk taking a direct hand in making an attack happen.

The other thing is that enough people are talking about an October surprise that if it did happen, the public response may not be as predictable as Roveco would have hoped.

My feeling is if there is an October surprise, it will indeed have to be a true surprise, something totally different than Osama or and attack.