"Restricted" Kroll Rpt Ties Iraq policy to US politics

[Rose Siding]

Even though the Agency for International Development has restricted distribution of reports by contractor Kroll Security International -- annoyingly pessimistic and negative reports, saying the number of daily attacks by insurgents in Iraq is increasing -- the weekly "Kroll Monitor" is still available, even online.

Last week's report says that "doubts continued to grow this week over whether elections can take place in January as planned against the current backdrop of relentless violence." (Note to AID: Either these guys get on message, or that contract will have to be terminated.) Election prospects, the report says, "receded this week," with Shiite cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani sounding pessimistic, a major Shiite party pushing for delay and influential Sunnis having "grave reservations."

"For the time being, however," the report continues, "the U.S. appears determined to proceed." Some officials suggest that places such as extremely dangerous Fallujah and Ramadi be excluded from the elections, the report says, "but such places could amount to 25 percent of the country, and that would severely undermine the credibility of the ballot."

"It is likely that the current U.S. firmness is tied to the November presidential elections, and that its stance could change after the U.S. vote, if George Bush is reelected. A revised and perhaps more realistic timetable could then be adopted, especially as violence is expected to escalate further when the election board starts to register an estimated 12 million voters after Oct. 27."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A4520-2004Oct3.html?nav=rss_politics