Spanish paper says Bin Laden in custody China--US negotiating

[musiclawyer]

This was Sunday see www.elmundo.es/cronica/2004/469/1097487207.html
Someone please read and translate (better than me). This gist of article is that US is negotiating and that this would be the October surprise that assures re-election. Don't ask me about paper's credibility or anything. I don't know

[fertilizeonarbusto]

1. i don't see

the Chinese handing * the election, sorry.
BTW, IMHO Osama died of his kidneys a couple of years ago and his followers kept it mum. If he were alive anywhere, he'd still be making videos like the sick egomaniac he is.

[nebula]

2. How the hell did China get a hold of bin Laden?

This sounds odd, but then I no habla espanol..

[flyingfysh]

4. China has areas with Islamic revolutionaries

[Brotherjohn]

5. Pakistan also borders China, and he has supposedly been in...

... the mountains of Pakistan (I think in areas close to China).

[On the Road]

14. China Has a Small Border with Afghanistan

near the mountain called Little Pamir. There was some speculation during the Afghan War (from the unreliable Debka if I remember) that this is where bin Laden fled to. Maybe it was correct and he was never at Tora Bora at all.

I wouldn't put too much stock by the story yet, but it wouldn't be too much of a surprise if it happened. And I think China would be tempted to hold off releasing him.

[Lucille]

16. It says OBL negotiated med. treatment in China in exchange for peace

with the Muslim guerilla insurgency that has been at war w/Beijing. This war necessitated tens of thousands of People's Army troops to keep the insurgency down and to try to limit the drug dealing, slave-trading, and warlording that goes on in the Muslim dominated provinces of China's northwest. It says that these areas have been unusually peaceful because of the agreement w/OBL. However, now the Chinese are negotiating with the Bush administration to turn over OBL to US custody. Bush would present this as a new era in which China and the US are partners in the war against terrorism and China now has a "special relationship" with the US. Only a handfull of people know about this plan, but that handfull includes Cheney and Rumsfeld.

El Mundo is a extremely reputable paper AFAIK and is not considered either left or right leaning.

This does not appear to be a done deal. The article concludes by quoting a state department official as saying that the collaboration will be successful only if Buscho convinces Beijing that they are good for their promises. Also: White House sources have refused to comment publicly on this question. "if the negotiations fail, It won't look good for the president" to be seen as personally involved in the negotiation.

[alvis]

3. Translation via Google

http://translate.google.com/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.elmundo.es%2Fcronica%2F2004%2F469%2F1097487207.html&langpair=es%7Cen&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&prev=%2Flanguage_tools

[neomonkey]

9. That's cool, I never knew about this

Instead of my futile attempts at interpreting this article with my crappy Spanish skills! :)

[alvis]

13. The language tools on Google come in handy

I wouldn't trust my Spanish to read this...

http://www.google.com/language_tools?hl=en

[papau]

15. Bin Laden is in China ?- translation(paraphrase) of highlights below:

The idea is that Bin Laden is in China in the northwest area of the Great Wall where his hiding place is near a lake next to the border between China and Pakistan. He has many followers among the more than five million Muslims in the area

And that he has been given Chinese asylum/medical treatment in return for telling those followers to stop causing problems in China - and the article notes such problems have been few of late in China!

But the Chinese will trade him to Bush so as to guarantee the re-election of George Bush Jr

The supposed reason is to look good to the world relative to fighting terrorists, Plus Bush will give China money via multi billion dollar Contracts that would be quickly approved, and Bush would promise to ignore the violations of Human rights in China, and Bush would grant "special relations status" to China

The article notes that GOP tricks were done in the past and refers to an interview with Ari Ben-Menashe, former adviser on national security to the Shamir government, and his confession in that interview that he was a go between, at the request of Reagan/Bush in 1980, to get Iran to NOT release the hostages until after Carter was out of office, and Ari says extremely large amounts of money then flowed from Reagan to Iran's Ayatollahs.

Finally the article provides an "out" to all the above, saying that it will not happen unless Bush convinces the Chinese that he will indeed maintain his promises with them - and claims this last part is per a civilian employee at the Pentagon.

[Union Thug]

6. October Surprise?

[dogtag]

7. Octobre Pinata is more like it! (n/t)

[rocktivity]

How is that good for Bush?

He didn't do the capturing if he has to negotiate for his extradition--you could even say that he HAD to outsource the job, LOL! It's going to look like he's been keeping him on ice. It's not as though all the other terrorists are going to lay down their arms if it's true. So what really changes? What really changed when Saddam was captured?

:headbang:
rocknation

[neomonkey]

8. My spanish is rusty...

But they talk about the October surprise alot...

La captura de Osama Bin Laden virtualmente garantizaría la re-elección de George Bush Jr., OBL's capture would guarantee Shrub stays in the White House...

el funcionario proporcionó detalles del plan para capturar a Osama bin Laden como un medio para mantener a Bush en la Casa Blanca. Explicó que no es la primera vez que una administración estadounidense ha recurrido a semejantes maniobras durante un periodo electoral A plan to capture OBL to keep Shrub in the White House...this person explained that it is not the first time this happened, referring to Ronald Reagan's Irania October surprise Hacia el final de la presidencia de Jimmy Carter se cerró un acuerdo secreto entre el entonces futuro presidente de los EEUU, Ronald Reagan, e Irán mediante el cual los diplomáticos estadounidenses secuestrados en Teherán, capital iraní, serían liberados el mismo día que Reagan accediera a la Casa Blanca.

[nebula]

10. Well if thats the case,

China, not Bush, would (or should) be getting the credit for his capture.

[KansDem]

12. Then we should put Jiang Zemin in the White House...

Could he be any worse than George W. Bush??????

[meow2u3]

17. October surprise

Bin Laden's capture? You heard it first on DU

[troubleinwinter]

11. I translated through Babblefish and read it.

It looks like a bunch of HOOEY to me.

I recommend (personal opinion) to let this totally rest. Let's not go off on a tangent until there is any kind of confirmation.

Looks completely hoodoo.

[knowbody0]

18. i thought i was the only one who saw

that they look like the same creepy diabolical non human piece of yuk

[troubleinwinter]

21. I couldn't sleep last night, the images were in my mind.

I will get rid of em soon. A serial killer and a mass murderer. Disturbing.

[Cleita]

23. Interesting idea that he could have escaped to China.

If Osama is as smart as he is said to be, then it would be expected that he has many exit and escape plans for wherever he has worn out his welcome. A man with failed kidneys needs constant medical care. If by chance he were to get a transplant, it needs to be in a place with fairly modern medical facilities. Even with a transplant, he needs access to approximately fourteen different drugs he needs to take for the rest of his life. China or India would be prime locations.

I have been told that El Mundo is pretty credible as a news source in the Hispanic community. I would keep an open mind. If it turns out to be true and if the Bush administration has known all along, they have some explaining to do.

[Lucille]

24. It doesn't look like they actually "have" him

The entire article is a lot of speculation. It seems that the author concluded that OBL is in China and he had contact with the Chinese government in order to get medical treatment and sanctuary. (The article mentions that he is traveling with a doctor). This is based on reports from agents who know that he contacted Beijing, as well as circumstantial evidence of the relative peace w/the insurgency. It's unclear about what China would have to do to secure him or if they will even be able to come to an agreement with the US. How much control does Beijing actually have over the provinces?

[July]

19. I don't think it says he's in custody, but I'm going to look again.

I think they say they know where he is, and that the U.S. is negotiating with China to get him.

But I just skimmed it really fast, let me doublecheck.

[bobbyboucher]

20. My friend is Chinese, and she read about 5-6 weeks ago

That Bin Laden had been caught. Not cornered, caught. She read this on a Chinese website.

For what it's worth.

[July]

22. Okay, looked at it again.

Still seems that bin Laden is not captured, but they think they know where he is. Says bin Laden made a deal last summer w/the Chinese for asylum. Now "anonymous sources" say the U.S. is negotiating w/China for the capture. High Pentagon source says bin Laden will be exchanged for most favored nation status for China, billions of fast-tracked contracts for China, and says that China's long history of human rights abuses will be ignored.

If this looks more and more like it's going to pan out, won't we need some pre-emptive talk of the last October Surprise, along with underlining of the fact that we've got huge Iraq problems with or without bin Laden? It's not going to change my vote, but how do we talk about it to the rest of the country.

I'm hoping it's bull, but it's hard to say from the article (those pesky anonymous sources!), and I don't know the author.

[troubleinwinter]

25. That is my point

"Still seems"
"they think they know"
"anonymous sources"

I just don't want this to go all over the place as rumor and gossip, like the "Bush is wired" deal.

It is not really germaine to important issues at hand (particularly tonite!).

My thinking is to leave it for the moment and see if anything comes of it, rather than posting it everywhere and wasting energy.

[July]

26. I'm not selling it.

But the fact that it is in El Mundo is interesting. That's one of the bigger papers in Spain.

I'm only interested in ridiculing Bush with the October Surprise -- Not! idea. I think we should talk it up, get a Pick the Bin Laden Capture Announcement Day contest going, etc., to take some of the force of such a (possible) announcement from Bush.

[Merlin]

27. Sounds like total bullshit.

If the article alleges the US is "offering Most Favored Nation" status to China in exchange for OBL, that's nonsense, since MFN has long since been supplanted by the WTO agreements and China's membership therein.

If OBL has a "doctor travelling with him" why would he have to, or want to, go into the remote regions of China?

IMO, OBL is alive and well, though disfigured, and living in the Tribal Region of Pakistan.