OMG! Kerry knows that the "Recession" is coming and things are going

[KoKo]

to be way bad before they get better. He isn't promising much because he can't. When he said "I can't tell you those outsourced jobs are coming back," I got a shudder in my gut.

I wish he had vowed to clean up Corporate Crime and reinstitute the regulations that Reagan and Poppy and Clinton dismantled...but I guess that would have been too dangerous.

But, it was a very gloomy debate which seemed to focus more on the Religious Right Wing Conservatives and Evangelicals in America than the Middle Class.

No new initiatives proposed to get folks back to work...except by Bush to "educate them for the 21st Century. What about all those who went back to school to learn computer skills that his Poppy told us we needed to do. Where are they?

I guess he means we need to learn to dig ditches and clean streets, maybe work as domestics for the wealthy. Retraining to be butlers and valets to the Executives in the new Global Economy.

BTW: I think Bush did worse than was apparent. It takes awhile for his idiocy and lack of knowledge about anything to sink in but for the reasons above I think people are going to be very angry with Bush in the coming weeks. Jobs are a big issue, and so is worry about the economy. Kerry couldn't say much in detail...because Bush has left him a mess like we've not seen since Nixon...and even then the country was more economically healthy....

I don't know what Kerry was proposing.. Giving us health care to survive the fact that we don't have jobs and raising the "minimum wage to $7.00 over a period of years?" Is this all we have to look forward to?

We must be in deep doo doo for them to both back off how we get America Back to WORK....

[Dogmudgeon]

1. We're deep in debt. We have a $450Bln deficit.

These things have to be paid, or at least paid off over time. Without that, the value of the Dollar collapses, which in turn takes down the whole world economic system.

The Dollar is the world's pre-eminent reserve currency. The Euro could pick up the slack, but not all at once.

And just look at all the bonds issued in the USA that have been used to back the currencies of smaller countries and multinational industry. You and I may not have a pot to piss in, but there is enough paper representing dead presidents on the proverbial street to pay for that street many times over.

So, basically, the American worker bee is going to have to take up the slack. Or else.

Yes, it really is that dire. We are really and truly and royally screwed. And if this segues into a "peak oil" scenario, we will be like Richard Corey's miserable employees -- while Richard Corey pops Paxil for those inconvenient suicidal thoughts.

--bkl

[kurt_cagle]

2. Kerry knows...

Bush did not bring on the 2000-2002 recession, and to a certain extent he is probably being somewhat unfairly targeted for perhaps 40% of the deficit. These could be attributed to structural problems, most of which date back to the big period of financial deregulation from the mid-1990s, when the Republicans regained control over the house and we had a predominance of "New Era" DLC Democrats.

The last recession did not hit everyone equally, however ... unlike every other recession in history it hit predominantly the upper-middle-class technocracy hardest, while causing a slow and steady erosion in jobs elsewhere. In a way, the recession of 2000 was a combination of overcorrection in the too hyped technology sector and the failure of the most fragile industry in a much bigger, more profound depression.

We're now on the cusp of what I think for most Americans will be the Great Depression of the 21st century. America has lost its manufacturing base to China, has lost its technical base to India and Russia and Japan, and has used up most of its "cheap" energy resources. While "home ownership" has gone up by nearly 12%, most Americans today own far less of their own homes than they did even a decade ago, and in many cases are spending so much for a house that whatever has been gained by low rates is being offset by property taxes and high principle costs. The housing bubble is within a year of collapsing, and is already beginning to collapse in the highest priced areas.

In other words, there is no miracle technology that will save us as the Internet did in 1993. Biotech is too specialized an area to create a large job base. IT is turning around, but it will not be the great engine for jobs that it was a decade ago -- many of these have been automated as computers have become more powerful. Alternative energy could sport a small renaissance of jobs, but even there, you're dealing mostly with specialized skills; manufacturing gets outsourced to the area of the lowest waves. In other words, the pressure on wages right now is mostly down right now, rather than up, even as inflation (so underreported currently) becomes an ever bigger factory for the core areas of energy costs, food costs, health care and housing.

It will take 2-3 years of continuous work to just turn around everything that Bush has broken, and all the while the spectre of retiring baby boomers is creeping ever closer. All this of course assuming that the political structure remains intact, something that I think is not necessarily a safe assumption. There is also the very real worry right now about what happens if, regardless of the outcome, the other side refuses to recognize the legitimacy of the vote.

No, Kerry knows ... the next four years are going to be the most challenging of any in the history of the nation.

-- Kurt Cagle

[KoKo]

4. Thank you both for the detailed replies. I agree or I wouldn't have

posted this...and we need to talk about it more here...

And, the fact that our difficult time..is going to be the "World's" trouble, also. If we can't afford to still buy from China, their economy suffers and it dominoes around the world. Who knows if even the job "outsourcing" going on now will still be viable?

So much needs to be done to clean it all up. Tougher regulation like was done after the Great Depression. So much of that regulation saw us through decades of boom and bust cycles, but the dismantling under the last four presidents doesn't leave much left for us to have a cushion.

Steep taxes for those making over $200.000 (more than during Clinton) and stiff monitoring of all our companies and individuals who are stashing "undeclared income" in offshore banks, regulation of derivatives and hedge funds, might pull us out. But, it ain't going to be pretty and there are going to be some big problems getting legislation through.

It can be done, but we need the best and brightest to do it. Greenspan and his ilk have had their day. We have to hope there are new ideas out there...

[loudsue]

5. That was a great post, Kurt...

And many good points you made are so true. If/when the Iranian government opens a market for trading oil futures in Euros, in March of 2005, there is a very real possibility that the dollar will collapse. Kerry has his hands full.

The greatest service he can do to his country AND HIMSELF, is to re-regulate the media so that Americans can be truly educated about what we are facing.

I'm a strong believer in American ingenuity, even though we've become a little side-tracked by the current political climate. I still believe that if Americans are given fair ground rules, that aren't going to be changing back and forth, small business and strong workers can make this country strong and secure again.

Countries need consistency to be successful. You can't tell people that they'll have social security when they retire, and allow them to plan for 20 years ahead based on that promise, and then rip it out from under them overnite. Corporations can't tell people they're going to have x-amount of dollars at retirement, and allow employees to work for 20 years planning toward that, and then bankrupt the retirement funds. It is LONG TERM CONSISTENCY that makes people strong financially. The technologies can change, and the products and services can change, but the PROMISES AND THE RULES (LAWS PROTECTING THE PROMISES) should never change. But that is what the neocons have given citizens of this country. Kerry is going to have his hands full trying to put Humpty Dumpty back together again. But it is going to take a person JUST LIKE KERRY to do it.

:kick::kick::kick:

:kick::kick::kick:

[KoKo]

6. Another good read, here, Loud Sue. So much work to be done. And,

Kerry does seem very serious about it. We have to hope that those around him are willing to roll up their sleeves and get to it. And, the Media...omg. So much work to do.

Thanks for adding more insight..:-)'s

[ProfessorGAC]

15. Where Do We Get This At DU?

Where do DU'ers get this notion that the currency by which a commodity is purchased would cause the collapse of the former currency?

This is chickenlittle-ism to the extreme. There is absolutely no data in economic history to indicate that the currency leads the economy. Nor is there any data to indicate that the purchase price of even a critical commodity leads the value of any other currency.

I know there are folks out there who think that. But, remember this: The neocons believe the currency by which oil is purchased is important. They have been wrong about every other economic construct they have pursued.

Do you folks really want to agree with a fundamental premise of the neocons?
The Professor

[KoKo]

12. kick

[jbonkowski70]

13. One correction, Kurt

I don't disagree with your posting, but I have read that the Congressional Budget Office attributes 2/3 of the current budget deficit to the 3 rounds of tax cuts. That's 66%. And the military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq are adding to that, especially since they have been requiring supplemental funding on top of the "planned" budget.

So I'm not sure why you say "Bush is unfairly targeted for 40% of the deficit". Unless you are trying to blame congress instead (who truly are also at fault for some of the deficit), I would put about 90% of the deficit right at the President's feet.

If you throw in the fact that Bush has never vetoed ANY bill so far (or so I have heard; Presidential first?), you could say he has taken no steps to curb congressional spending, and is at fault for ALL of the deficit.

[Cleita]

3. We know our guy isn't superman, but

I appreciate that he isn't making too many empty promises. He sure beats the alternative though. His first term is really going to be tough.

[KoKo]

7. Kick for the very late night crowd who want to read some good posts about

our economy... Going to bed, but thanks all. :-)'s

[Pax Argent]

8. And the greatest challenge will be

trying to do anything about any of this with a hostile media and a hostile congress. I'm hoping the Rethugs can put aside their petty, bullshit games and join together in order to face these rising crises.

[juajen]

9. They might as well

There's nothing left for them to steal, and by the time we correct it and start getting prosperous again, they will come along and steal it again. Damn it, there oughta be a law that prevents a new President from tearing down what the previous President accomplished without some kind of accountability to the people. I coined this phrase in another post, but I'll repeat it here. They're Pirates of the Potomic."

[w4rma]

10. Repugs are in total denial about all these problems. They're nuts. (nt)

[JohnyCanuck]

11. Old MacDonald's farm ain't what it used to be.

Imagine for a moment that someone inherits a farm. Let's say that the farm has good topsoil, a good well, good breeding stock, good seed, and excellent farm equipment in good repair. Prior to passing into the control of the present owner the farm did a good business selling vegetables, meat, and dairy products to the local market, and it made a small profit.

But let us suppose for a moment that the present owner of the farm doesn't understand farming, or isn't even really interested in learning. The present owner has no objection to standing around looking good, so he stays at the farm, standing in front of it, looking good to passers by.

Of course, the bills still come in, so our farmer puts them on his credit card. When that bill comes due he uses another credit card, Then another. Pretty soon the interest payments alone are higher than his bills and the banks get nervous and call him. No problem. Our farmer sells the tractor, takes the money around to the various credit cards, the food store, the utilities, and pays off all his bills. Then he stands around in front of the farm looking good to passers-by, the lord of his domain.

Will, the bills still come in. Again the credit cards get loaded up. So, this time our farmer sells the harvester. Then later on, the cattle, then the chickens, then the seeds, then he leases the well to his neighbor and finally sells the top soil from his farm to another farm down the road whose soil is getting tired. The cash is taken around to the various creditors, the food store, the utilities, etc.

Now at this point, our farmer thinks everything is okay. The bills are paid, he has a little cash in his pocket, and everything is fine.

Of course, you know better. The farm simply does not exist any more; it's just an empty lot with a few buildings, and soon they will be gone as well. The path from the farmer's present condition to seizure of the property for unpaid taxes is a foregone conclusion, even if the farmer doesn't look far enough ahead to see it.

Poor, dumb, stupid farmer.

That farmer is our government, and our business leaders.

Just as our hypothetical farm has lost its soil, livestock, seed, and farm equipment, America has lost its manufacturing ability. Short sighted business leaders, with as little interest in manufacturing as our farmer had in farming, decided their own personal bonuses would be higher if they simply sold their factories rather that ran them.

More at: www.whatreallyhappened.com/ARTICLE2/doodoo.html

[T Town Jake]

14. It's the oldest story in recent American history:

...Republican administrations create a mess, and a Democratic president has to come and clean it up. Think Hoover/FDR, Ford/Carter, Reagan-Bush I/Bill Clinton. In each case the Democratic president had to straighten out the numerous problems his GOP predecessor had created. The record speaks for itself: Republicans create or ignore problems that Democrats then proceed to solve.

[KoKo]

16. kick