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welshTerrier2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 12:20 AM
Original message
the U.S. economic model is unsustainable
the focus of the election and the national dialog has failed to focus on the sad reality that the U.S. economic model is unsustainable ...

i'm afraid we're looking at far worse than a recession ... it seems to me that our system is approaching a critical point of failure ... and to help matters along a little, corporate America is scavenging the last remains aided by bush and his greedmeisters ...

in a global economy, a nation with a comparatively high standard of living suffers from increasing "leveling pressures" ... we're already seeing the tip of the iceberg with outsourcing and companies moving overseas ... it's all about lowering the costs of production and countries with high production costs are not well suited to that objective ...

so, what's the answer ... in the short term, increased nationalism and protectionism ... withdraw from global trade treaties that allow multi-national corporations to escape regulations imposed by their host countries ... Kucinich is dead on with his call for bi-lateral trade negotiations ... Kerry also shows interest in this model by his call to restructure the tax code ... punish companies that export jobs and reward those that don't ... both of these ideas are, or will become, very politically popular as the U.S. continues to decline ... and they may help spread the inevitable "leveling" over a greater period of time ...

but these ideas will ultimately be too little too late ... some may have faith in the "business cycle" ... "we've been down before ... i'm sure we'll bounce back" ... but this argument fails to understand the macro changes happening around the world ... the U.S. suffers from a non-competitive education system ... countries many Americans have little respect for are producing literacy rates far greater than the U.S. ... several of the countries, specifically China and India are producing far more engineering graduates than the U.S. ... when your economy goes up and down in a closed system, the ebb and flow of the business cycle makes sense; when the whole world is networked together and global treaties like the WTO are entered into, a new dynamic is created ... and the new dynamic is called "shrink the giants" ... in the new model, all workers compete on the same playing field ... and workers in wealthy countries are forced towards the mean ...

not only will workers in wealthy countries suffer, but the number of jobs globally will decline for all workers ... several key factors will cause the number of jobs to decline globally ... these factors include an expanding global population, a decline in global natural resources (e.g. peak oil, global warming, food shortages), and technological advances ... coupling these factors with multi-national corporations controlling the global economy and workers will come under increasing pressure to find work ...

but there is still reason for hope among all this darkness ... in a world very far into the future, in a world that i'm afraid is far beyond the imagination of the major parties and the American people, there is a world that truly will re-evaluate the meaning of work ... the goal of working and providing work for others will be to provide people with a productive avenue for their lives ... the concept of profit will take a back seat to the importance of human fulfillment ... unfortunately, there will be great pain during the transition, especially in the U.S. ... and these more peaceful times are far beyond any horizon we can see today ...

to discuss a program to help the American economy "fail gracefully" is not political viable ... even if candidates shared this vision of the fate that awaits us, they wouldn't want to be the bearers of bad news ... of course, this will change as things get worse ... the games that seem necessary to win in our political arena do not align with policies that would be in the best interests in the country ... and so, even national leaders with vision, and there are very few, are unable to chart the necessary course ...
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NJCher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 12:33 AM
Response to Original message
1. economic change
the concept of profit will take a back seat to the importance of human fulfillment

I would love this. I am already doing it; it's not economically great but it is satisfying and creative work.


Cher
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welshTerrier2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 12:39 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. thanks for the reply !!!
i didn't actually think anyone would read my post ... the title was a bit dry and the post was very long ...

what kind of work do you do ??? it sounds great ...
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serryjw Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 12:40 AM
Response to Original message
3. Very well written.......
Have you read this article? ( fascinating quote)


quote..........
The most important statement of the article:"The only alternative right now is to shrink our economies."
end quote.........


Report from _2003_ from THE ASSOCIATION FOR THE STUDY OF PEAK OIL&GAS 2nd
> International Workshop On Oil Depletion in Paris - that Peak Oil may
> already by here...
> http://www.peakoil.net/iwood2003/MatSim.html
>
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welshTerrier2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 12:50 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. no, but i will ...
i've read articles on peak oil but not the one you cited ...

if i could share one link in return, it would be the following:
http://www.dsausa.org/about/where.html (Democratic Socialists of America) ... it's very long but it's very strong ...

i read this two days ago and i'm still totally blown away ... i've written tons of essays on DU on the subject of corporate power and massive wealth and their incompatibility with democracy ... the themes on the website i provided are almost identical to my own political views ...

arriving where i have, it's sad to know that not much of what is needed is really being discussed ... it's tragic that we get so obsessed with winning and losing that we're all going to lose ... perhaps this is what was meant by a "house divided" ...
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serryjw Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 12:57 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. Yes, That's why I was a DK state delegate.
Edited on Thu Oct-14-04 12:58 AM by serryjw
I heard Bushit refer to what is happening as a 'contest'?? We are talking about the lives of 6 BILLION people. I don't call this a contest........thanks I will read it and report back.
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Old and In the Way Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 01:00 AM
Response to Original message
6. I was disappointed that Kerry didn't talk about a new energy economy
that uses alternative/renewable energy infrastructure to drive a new economic model for this country....
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welshTerrier2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 01:20 AM
Response to Reply #6
9. very good observation ...
this had been one of the real keystones of Kerry's jobs program but i never hear him talk about it anymore ...

btw, i do believe that the U.S. could perhaps create jobs in the short-run by developing alternative energy sources ... the problem i see with relying on leading edge technological advances is that once the r&d is completed, there's no guarantee that jobs relating to production (e.g. building wind turbines or solar cells) will be staffed by workers in the U.S.
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idlisambar Donating Member (916 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 01:09 AM
Response to Original message
7. "unsustainable" is a good characterization
Check out this article...

http://www.unsustainable.org/view_art_un.php?AID=70

Nonetheless, I disagree that a wealthy country with high wage workers can't be internationally competitive. It would take a revolution in the current thinking, but if the U.S were to systematically recultivate its manufacturing base with particular focus on those industries that are capital rather than labor intensive, the U.S. can get back on a sustainable path.
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welshTerrier2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 01:26 AM
Response to Reply #7
10. "capital rather than labor intensive"
wouldn't this model "sustain" investors at the expense of workers ??? if workers aren't working and maintaining or increasing their standard of living, it's not clear to me how investors would find lucrative companies to invest in ... wasn't this Henry Ford's idea of paying his workers enough so they could buy cars ??

anyway, thanks for the link ... i look forward to reading it ...
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idlisambar Donating Member (916 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 01:33 PM
Response to Reply #10
37. The bigger picture
Edited on Thu Oct-14-04 01:34 PM by idlisambar
It's true that a capital-intensive field will hire fewer workers but in some ways that is what we want. One, capital-intensive activities are not as vulnerable to international competition from cheap labor countries. Two, workers in capital-intensive fields tend to be better-paid. Three, and most critically, though much of the conversation centers around the "jobs" issue, jobs is really not the central issue -- the central issue is production capacity. From the perspective of production capacity, it is better to lose a job to an American robot than a non-American human, because the robot is working for us, and when the product is sold we get the money. Then, with that money, we can employ people in other endeavors, or perhaps allow ourselves a bit more vacation time.

The point is not just to preserve jobs, but to get better jobs. One way for a wealthy nation to maintain or improve its standard of living is to lose jobs to machines instead of cheap labor from abroad.
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necso Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 01:18 AM
Response to Original message
8. I like much of what you have to say.
But selfishness (in some form) will always be the "driver" for the majority of mankind. And as a first step, we must make it enlightened.

And I think that there is a great deal of incompetence, self delusion and ineffectiveness in the world and particularly in the US.

With a improved understanding of how to "work" and the vision to target the products of tomorrow (medicine, fusion, solar, etc), much can be done. Protectionism can center on items essential for "Nation Security" and provide a firm basis of good paying jobs for the long term.

Of course, the individual, as consumer, citizen and "neighbor" will also have to play an "activist" role. And, of course, schools must be improved -- but "working" skills can be built in a lot quicker than 12 or 16 years.

Difficult, yes. Impossible, I think not.

And this is exactly the sort of thing (one of) that I am interested in.
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cthrumatrix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 11:21 AM
Response to Reply #8
29. "selfishness" from our leaders policies are affecting middle class
people...

Shrub made his choice before the recession about tax cuts for the wealthy...the 7 million jobs he promised as a result were BS.

We are at a point where selfishness can do greater damage than we ever thought.
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Julien Sorel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 01:27 AM
Response to Original message
11. Your major premise is false.
it's all about lowering the costs of production and countries with high production costs are not well suited to that objective ...


"Production costs" are entirely relative to productivity. I'm willing to pay someone $20 an hour instead of $4 an hour (or less) when I get more for my $20 than I would with my $4. The infrastructure here (roads, waterways, a well educated populace, political stability, language) gives us a productivity advantage, generally making it worth employers' while to hire Americans and pay them more. As that becomes less true, jobs will leave this country, as has happened in certain industries. However, as other countries modernize, the cost of their labor will also go up, leveling the playing field.

There will likely be bumps and bounces along the way, but it hardly means the economic system here is "unsustainable." It means the world is going to become more prosperous, and the huge income gap between the U.S., and developed countries in general on the one hand, and the "Third World" on the other will shrink. It does not necessarily mean U.S. income (think of income as a catch-all for standard of living) itself will shrink, or collapse, as is suggested by the word "unsustainable," and the generally dire tone of your post.
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welshTerrier2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 01:55 AM
Response to Reply #11
12. well, let's hope you're right ...
i read something a few days ago that you can hire 26 programmers in India for the cost of one programmer in the U.S. ... i have absolutely no idea if this is true ... but even if the proportion is 10:1, or 5:1 or even 2:1, American workers would not be competitive ...

you made a number of other arguments that are very valid ... there certainly are reasons to do business in the U.S. ... the infrastructure points you made are especially true ... but your acknowledgement that less developed countries will soon modernize is perhaps the key issue ... the American infrastructure is aging while emerging economies can be far more easily built to today's requirements ...

one point you didn't put as much emphasis on as I did is the issue of education ... there are countries in the world with literacy rates approaching 100% ... depending on which report you read, something in the order of 25% or more of the U.S. adult population is not able to read at an "adequate level" ... and the U.S. is falling far behind several emerging nations in math and science skills ... to include education in a list of items that gives the U.S. a productivity advantage is a bit more optimistic than I can be ...

finally, you made the argument that a closing income gap could be caused by income gains in emerging nations rather than declines in the U.S. ... again, i hope you're right about this ... what i can see from my little perch in the tree is a tidal wave of American employers seeking to participate in cheaper labor markets overseas ... instead of talking about turning the tide of outsourcing, I heard Kerry honestly observe tonight that many jobs won't be returning ... and our "knowledge industry" that fueled much of the boom years under Clinton is seeing thousands of jobs exported over global networks ...

whether my post is excessively dire or not, i don't think there's been much comfort for American workers in the give and take between Kerry and bush ... if you're out of work today, i'm not sure what ideas they've raised that would give you a sense of well-being in the near-term ...
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Julien Sorel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 02:33 AM
Response to Reply #12
16. re: education
one point you didn't put as much emphasis on as I did is the issue of education ... there are countries in the world with literacy rates approaching 100% ... depending on which report you read, something in the order of 25% or more of the U.S. adult population is not able to read at an "adequate level" ... and the U.S. is falling far behind several emerging nations in math and science skills ... to include education in a list of items that gives the U.S. a productivity advantage is a bit more optimistic than I can be ...

The U.S. literacy rate is almost 100%. "Adequate level" is different than the threshold used for literacy.

As for the point about math and science, it's certainly true, and there is huge room for improvement in education here, particularly in those areas. We are one of the most educated countries in the world however, and no large country has a workforce as highly educated as is ours. About 1 in 4 Americans has a four year degree; I don't think that rate is as high anywhere else.
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Blue Wally Donating Member (974 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 12:34 PM
Response to Reply #16
32. It depends on what you mean by education................
As for the point about math and science, it's certainly true, and there is huge room for improvement in education here, particularly in those areas. We are one of the most educated countries in the world however, and no large country has a workforce as highly educated as is ours. About 1 in 4 Americans has a four year degree; I don't think that rate is as high anywhere else.


Are the four year degrees in the hard sciences, engineering, and mathematics or are they in theater arts, journalism, and sociology?? Maybe we need a two tier college tuition program with those in "economic" fields getting real tuition assistance while those in "uneconomic" fields see their tuitions climb.


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HEIL PRESIDENT GOD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 12:57 PM
Response to Reply #32
34. Lovely sentiment
But does it occur to you that people are paid to administer surveys, act in plays, commercials, etc., and write newspaper articles? Sometimes they are paid to do this even while engineers and economists are being laid off!

Most of the fields thought of as economic are basically useless; anyone can do almost any job that exists. Mostly what is required is on-the-job training. For pete's sake, it doesn't take a four year degree in bio to sit all day swabbing bunny's eyes with chemicals. Or a four year degree in computer science to stand all day by a conveyor belt sticking circuit boards in a cool oven and then testing them with a plug-in device. These are real education-job transitions that friends of mine have gone through; they are typical, not extreme. It's what's driving all of us back to grad school.

What you're talking about is college or not; too many people are going to college, it's too easy to get passing grades, and graduates are not competent enough in any subject.
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Eloriel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 02:03 PM
Response to Reply #16
42. U.S Literacy - rate and definiton
definition: age 15 and over can read and write
total population: 97%
male: 97%
female: 97% (1979 est.)

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/us.html
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Jose Diablo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 11:20 AM
Response to Reply #12
28. I would think the embedded cost of infrastructure
within the cost of labor is one reason American labor is expensive.

If we remember that taxes pay all the cost of infrastructure and that all costs for taxes inevitably end up in the cost of products mostly bought by labor, plus taxes paid mostly by labor then we can conclude that all that infrastructure is embedded in the cost of labor.

Now add in the pork from government that gets buried in thing like building and maintaining roads then the high cost of labor becomes increasing apparent.

I doubt the infrastructure for electricity is far out of line, except we use more than most other developing countries, on a per capita basis.

As for water purification and sewage processing, what we have here is probably more cost effective than developing countries because of the potential payback, in theory, in health costs. I say in theory because something is wrong with the overall costs of health care, I suspect the insurance companies are taking a huge bite they should not have access too.

Now one more things on embedded costs, what is the total bite these insurance costs are adding to the price of labor. I would imagine that if the average cost of labor was say $20/hour, then $5/hour would probably be attributable to insurance costs either directly or indirectly through higher prices labor must pay to buy shelter, food, transportation and other stuff to survive.

Anytime, productivity has gone up by 300% in say 35 years, yet the adjusted labor rate in dollars has stayed the same, then somebody other than labor is making a lot of money.

It is my take that the embedded costs labor must absorb is what is making labor seem less competitive than many others around the world.
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sweetheart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 01:05 PM
Response to Reply #28
35. And the largest embedded cost of all --> WAR
What kind of competetiveness can there be when every labour hour
is financing a trillion(s) dollar war machine. All the other things
are negligible considering that one factor.
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Strelnikov_ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 01:38 PM
Response to Reply #28
39. Transportation Bill Pending Calls For $318 B (Senate Ver) Over 6 yrs.
Assuming labor force of 140 M, this comes to $381/person/year.

Considering that the share of the FY03 Federal Budget of $2,158 B is $15,414/person, it appears that transportation is a small part of overall 'taxation' costs.

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murdoch Donating Member (658 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 01:59 AM
Response to Reply #11
14. but...
"It does not necessarily mean U.S. income (think of income as a catch-all for standard of living) itself will shrink, or collapse, as is suggested by the word 'unsustainable,' and the generally dire tone of your post."

But the average inflation adjusted hourly wage in the US is below what it was 30 years ago.

See for yourself: http://www.bls.gov (I can give you detailed instructions if this site confuses you - it's the US federal governments BLS)
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Julien Sorel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 02:18 AM
Response to Reply #14
15. Are your living standards worse than they were 30 years ago?
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murdoch Donating Member (658 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 02:56 AM
Response to Reply #15
17. no
But I wasn't alive 30 years ago
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Julien Sorel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 04:08 AM
Response to Reply #17
18. I was.
And life is better now than it was then. Without even examining your data, I can tell you that there's more to living standards than income tables.
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rman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 07:56 AM
Response to Reply #11
20. Then again, paying $19/hr will make you more profit then paying $20/hr
Isn't making ever more profit the main goal of any capitalist corporation? So you just got to keep cutting production cost, and the easiest way to do that is to pay ever lower wages.

As you say: "Production costs are entirely relative to productivity"

That means productivity can be expressed in terms of production cost; lay of some workers, have the remaining workers make longer hours - e presto: increased productivity. Same with lowering wages.

Once one population is pushed to the limit in lowering wages, you move your business where the labor market is even more "flexible" (aka 3rd world nations). One would think big corporations actually have an interest in making and keeping those markets flexible - in other words: keeping those nations poor. Which of course doesn't prevent them from claiming they are "helping" those nations and the rest of the world. After all, cheap labor is good for the economy, and what's good for the economy is good for the people. Or so they would have us believe. They usually don't mention that many people are in fact less well off, while they themselves reap most of the benefits.

Seems to me the premise of the topic starter is correct.
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robcon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 01:50 PM
Response to Reply #20
41. That's a silly example, IMO
It all depends on productivity. There no doubt that if workers are equal in productivity, paying $20 yields less profit than paying $19...duh.

It's how productive workers are relative to pay that determines the standard of living.
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murdoch Donating Member (658 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 01:56 AM
Response to Original message
13. The US and world economic situation
I saw the bubble up close and have suffered the downturn up close so I've become more interested in what is nowadays called economics (in olden times it was called "political economy" which is probably more appropriate).

Some basic facts of the economy aren't generally known to people. One is that starting in the mid 1960s and undeniably there by the early 1970s, a large economic "crisis" as some like to call it came along which is still with us in the US and world economy.

One interesting aspect of the crisis - the average inflation adjusted hourly wage in the US is below what it was 30 years ago. Go to the BLS ( http://www.bls.gov ) and look it up yourself. The average worker made more 30 years ago than they do today. How's that for progress?

That's a good way of translating the whole thing to the average person - "You made more 30 years ago then you do today". But then there's other connected things - the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the early 1970s and the transition from gold standard backed money to fiat money. The economic growth from the mid 1940s to the mid 1960s started to slow down.

Unions became very inconvenient then, but the AFL was started as a sell-out business union, and after massive resistance of the labor movement in the 1910s (IWW disbanded), and then starting again in the 1930s and lasting until the 1950s until the Taft-Hartley act was in place and the AFL bureaucracy was put in place to smother their organization, and especially foreign labor unions. But anyhow, that hollowing of the labor movement from the inside which happened with little resistance from the 1950s became important in the mid-1960s when the labor movement needed to be attacked since they'd obviously fold when asked to. So private unionization in the US is 8% right now (compared to over 30% in Canada, or over 30% in the US government). Some economists think the labor militancy of the 1930s and early 1940s is the cause of business to seek rapid growth in the 1950s and 1960s.

Paul Krugman writes well about this stuff in his books, but while he writes very well, his vision is kind of limited. Maybe it's been too long since something like the 1930s Depression, it makes people think it can't happen (although Krugman says it can nowadays - but it still hasn't really seeped into his thinking as it would in the flesh perhaps). Doug Henwood is good as well. The Monthly Review has interesting economic articles from time to time, although the quality varies.
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KlatooBNikto Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 05:53 AM
Response to Original message
19. I have seen first hand the impact of our standard of living on
our manufacturing activities as I own several small corporations that manufacture highly complex parts for several industries.More than college graduates we need people capable of running ( which includes programming) precision machinery.For quite sometime now we have been training youngsters straight out of high school ourselves using our skilled people to run classes for them. This has worked out well for us, but I was amazed on a recent trip to India how many such youngsters are coming into the market over there.While we hear about the programmers and other highly educated people from India, what is creeping up on us is a lot of people being produced over there who are adept at CNC (Computer Numerically Controlled) machinery.These people are trainded at the thousands of institutes which are free for any high school graduate.Their pay is even less than that of the programmers who are successfully competing in world markets.

For someone like me, this vast highly skilled labor pool is far more of an attraction than having college graduates. I think this is where we are going to be beaten. When I can get an Indian worker already highly skilled for $3 a day instead of having to train a youngster over here for $15-20 an hour and have to train him to boot,the odds remain heavily titlted in India's favor.So, yes, we are in a non level
playing field, and productivity increases may level the playing field somewhat but with the kinds of investments India is making in education, both technical and college level, we must increase our own investment in our youngsters and make them see what the future for us will hold if we don't do something now.The decline fo the British Empire as it became more and more used to the labors and toils of its colonial people should be a warning to us.

Thanks for your post.It was sobering to me because I face these decisions each day.
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RollergirlVT Donating Member (452 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 08:36 AM
Response to Original message
21. beyond education...
We must also consider the new power and competition from the emerging economies like China. There is greater world demand for investment dollars and limited resources and our deficit will put heavy upward pressure on interest rates. Although higher interest rates will help improve our declining foreign investment scenario, they will severely impede our own economic growth. I agree the recession will be very severe. A lesson to all, a powerful military means nothing if you can't pay your soldiers, just look at Russia.
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IrateCitizen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 08:42 AM
Response to Original message
22. It is, but for reasons beyond what you state...
The one thing that really stuck out to me last night in the debates was how BOTH candidates spoke of the need to increase "consumption" as a cure for the economy. We already consume 1/4 of the world's resources (and only have 4% of the population). Please tell me how in the hell consuming MORE can possibly be good in the long run.

About 47 years ago, John Kenneth Galbraith published an interesting book titled, The Affluent Society. In it, he argued that conventional wisdom concerning US economic growth was dangerously misplaced. He said that while increasing production was a good goal in coming out of the depression (where the US was at less than 1/2 of its productive capacity), the continued emphasis on "growth" was sure to be self-defeating. He denounced the advertising industry and its business of "manufacturing desires and wants", and urged us to follow a path that subordinated private sector growth to true societal needs -- and placed growth of public works and the commons on at least equal footing with private sector growth.

In reading Galbraith's work (and precognition), I am able to much better see the glaring deficiencies in our economic system. A system in which children are not viewed as our most prized resource, but an all-important marketing demographic, is a sick one. A system that prizes things over civic participation is a sick one. A system that glamourizes those who aggressively go after "what they want" ahead of those who live lives of altruism and helping others is a sick one.

Our economic model is certainly not sustainable. Throughout the post-war boom, we saw both our middle class expanding and the wealthy doing well. We were confronted with the decision back in the late 1970's and early 1980's of whether to force the wealthy to give up some of what they had in order to enable the middle class to keep expanding, or whether to sacrifice the middle class in order to allow the rich to keep getting richer. We could no longer do both. I think it's pretty clear which path we chose in this regard. While this may work out well for the rich over a period of time, a system of such grossly increasing inequalities is bound to become unstable.

Furthermore, we need to look at the issue of the environment as it applies to our economic models. What seems to be often forgotten is that the words economy and ecology both come from the same root word -- ecos, meaning "from the earth". However, we have conveniently managed to separate the two simply because acknowledging their interconnectedness would make things more complicated for us, and force us to make some difficult decisions. However, it cannot be denied that our economic models of consumption are having a significantly negative effect on our environment. Fresh water supplies are disappearing, old-growth forests are being felled for timber, rainforests are being cut down to the tune of thousands of acres per day. Arable soil is being washed or blown away. Global warming is becoming more and more of a reality. How much longer can this go on before we have caused irreparable harm to our environment? Who knows? We may have already passed that point. What is certain is that there is a dangerous lack of political and societal will to confront this problem.

I agree with you that our economic model is unsustainable. I just think it goes a lot further than the "leveling" of global standards.
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IrateCitizen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 09:42 AM
Response to Original message
23. KICK for an interesting discussion...
:kick:
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sweetheart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 09:44 AM
Response to Original message
24. An old solution: "trustbusting"
The concentration of ownership of capital, has lead to a decreased
net competence in managing that capital, as those with the control
are too far removed from the business capability to develop businesses
further.

In essence, the economy has become overcentrallized in the mistaken
perception that global economies of scale actually exist, and that
it is a perferred maximum to "globalize". So by supporting the
status quo, we are supporting neoliberalism, and having already
recognized the failures of that, there must be an alternative.

I think it appropriate that the tax code is changed that all public
companies report their work force statistics, numbers of men/women
white and other races. This to be reported by nation state, so that
transparency can affect where affirmative action fails. As well,
the companies will be responsible for reporting international transfer
prices, with any net-deficits charged income tax. This would
punish companies that pay labour overseas and keep few staff in
their home markets, as level would be to pay your staff where the
products are sold.

As well, there should be a significant tax on speculative transactions. For example, to buy some equity stock on the markets
should cost a "tax" of 10% if the stock is sold within a year.
This would immediately bring about a more serious tone on behalf
of investors, as it would put capital on a long term course along
with the rest of us.

As well, the foreign exchange rate vs. the Indan rupee and the
Chinese yuan should be encouraged to adjust by the treasury to
bring about a more realistic parity. This change will close the
loophole of dumping labour in india, as it won't be cheaper net net.

Speculation tax on international capital movements would also greatly
stabilize the deterioration, as it would force "free capital" to
find a solid investment home, instead of exploiting public
market inefficiencies to the disadvantage of real producers.

Sarbanes-oxley (sp?) is a stillborn, with companies box-ticking thier
way to thinking they are in compliance with public interests. The
reform of corporate law should be more significant, with a federal
corporate website "federalizing" corporate law, and offering a
special corporate court system that charged huge fees to recover
the public cost of corporate court usage.

As well, the subsidies need to stop, the cotton dole, the steel dole
and the oil-dole + war costs. These public subsidies distort
and prevent the economy from correcting its "unsustainability".

The anti-trust courts should be given a strong hand to break up
market abusers like microsoft and other monopolists who are reaping
unfair profits based on market abuse. All this is based on the
theory, that 1000 people can invest 1000 dollars more wisely than
one person can invest a million. This is not to say, large-cap
needs to not exist, but MOST businessess stimuation is in the
small and midcap areas, and too much power has been given to the
large cap abusers to the expense of us all.
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gpandas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 09:59 AM
Response to Original message
25. the neocon answer...
kill whomever we need to. this will sustain our system.
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tlcandie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 10:17 AM
Response to Original message
26. Thank you for this post and discussion!
It is very much needed! I am not an economist or numbers person, but what you are saying is what rings true to me. I truly think we need to look at this and rethink/reform/re-envision(?) some things because this can't/won't continue to stand.

Again, thank you!!! :+
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Desertrose Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 11:06 AM
Response to Original message
27. great thread welshTerrier2
thats what I love about DK...he saw the whole global picture......

I think I pretty much agree with what you say.....will show this to my ex..repub accountant (who is voting Kerry btw- but still doesn't get it:eyes: )

peace
DR
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info being Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 11:23 AM
Response to Original message
30. I agree with many of your points.
I also wanted to suggest that, since you're such a good writer, why not use standard punctuation? Why not use regular periods and capital leters to start sentences? It will make your writing even more impactful.

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venus Donating Member (527 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 12:24 PM
Response to Original message
31. From the boots on the ground perspective,
it is corporate outsourcing that is causing most of our job loss problems. Also, experienced, mature,less formally educated workers are not being hired in lieu of the recent 20 something college grads. If you look at any refereed engineering journal, almost all of the research scientists are from India, China, Japan, etc. These cultures are ingrained with a high degree of discipline, and given the opportunities of globalization, they are excelling. This is good news as we want to spread democracy. With that comes education and taking on American values. But they're kicking our butts and we have to rise to the occasion. This does not mean not protectionism, but taking better care of our workers. This involves thinking seriously about immigration, HB1(?) visas, and abandoning corporate involvement in educational institutions.
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HEIL PRESIDENT GOD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 12:48 PM
Response to Original message
33. Editing and other comments
You write well; you should not rely on ellipses (...) for your punctuation.

As far as content goes, I'm 100% with you, except on the optimistic part. There will be dark ages, and what survives by accident or is worth saving from our civilization will be revived by the next one. I don't think the human race can stay civilized permanently. The earth would be so devastated that we would have to colonize other planets. I've heard an argument FOR Bush's foreign policy that we need to conquer the world militarily in order to build space capabilities and ditch the earth when it's wrecked. I think this is just a recipe for more dark ages, and I'm fairly complacent that the dark ages are coming. I hope that doesn't mean a violent end for myself or anyone I care about, but the current situation makes me not so hopeful even on that count.
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reprobate Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 01:37 PM
Response to Reply #33
38. Shortbus, I'm afraid I can't be as optimistic as you.

In fact I can see an almost biblical period of disaster looming ahead. Combine peak oil, global climate change, with the terrible anger that is growing in the muslim nations against us, and I think what you will see is the perfect storm.

All this will lead to famine, the end of the transportition system as we know it, and a massive die off of population. And I'm afraid that is what would be needed if the survivors are to build a new society that could be sustainable.

In fact, if I were a more spiritual person, the idea of karma being visited on us as a nation would match the circumstances.

Then again, perhaps the problem is that Ghia is finally pissed off enough that she will seek a balancing.
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IrateCitizen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 01:46 PM
Response to Reply #38
40. You must've read a different post than me, reprobate...
If anything (and I'm in agreement with you both here), sh0rtbus seems to be saying that a dark age IS inevitable, and that "civilization" cannot be the natural state of mankind, considering the incredible environmental pressures and such that it has created.

The earth is already in the midst of a balancing, or a "restart", if you prefer. We're currently in the midst of the largest mass-extinction since the end of the dinosaurs. If that doesn't pull the rug out from under us entirely, then global warming will at least signal the end of human society as we know it. Personally, I tend toward the line of thought that we have ALREADY done irreparable harm to the environment, and it's only a matter of time before the backlash comes. When the severe effects of our actions start occuring, and we suddenly are able to find the political will to fucking do something about it, it will be too late.

However, the future still has many uncertainties. Perhaps the most important of these is what kind of societies will develop as a result. While there will certainly be pockets of people fighting it out over diminished resources, I believe that the future also affords the opportunity for the founding of communities based on cooperation and sharing as well, along with a genuine respect for the environment that provides every bit of sustenance needed for life.

In any event, we and future generations will see what the final outcome is regardless....
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happyslug Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 04:07 PM
Response to Reply #33
44. Another "Dark Age"
Like the last one, c 500AD to 1000AD, a period where writing declined, Arts declined, the number of super rich almost disappeared while the size of the poor grew to almost equal the size of people of wealth.

Yes, the size of poor people INCREASED during the Dark Ages (Reflecting access to more and better food). If you truly study the "Dark Ages" you will find out that the bottom half of the population did much better while the top 5% almost disappears. In the ancient world (and definitely during the Roman Empire) communications among the poorer classes was almost unheard of (they did exists but rare). Most poor people could not read of write doing both periods but HOW society valued the poor differentiated greatly. For example the Water wheel (Which helped poor people be more productive) took almost the whole history of the Roman Empire (c200BC to c500AD)to go from the Mid-east to Western Europe, while the Iron Furnace took Europe by Storm in the 600s (After taking almost 600 years to reach Europe from China).

This difference in the speed of the spread of each reflect the values of both societies, if it helped the wealthy elite it spread rapidly in the Roman Empire, but if it helped the poor it spread was slow. In the Dark Ages the opposite was true, if it helped the people the invention spread rapidly, but if it helped the Rich, more and more people cared less and less for it throughout the Dark Ages.

This can be seen in some other inventions of the Dark Ages. For example the Iron plow which was in use in Modern Turkey about 200 AD, when it was introduced to the Ukraine about 600 AD it spread rapidly through out Europe (Reaching France from Germany and Poland NOT via Italy and Greece). The Iron horseshoe, the Horse Collar, the ball-bearing, the Stirrup and Hay made horses a true means of transportation (supplanting and in many cases replacing Oxen). Yes, Ancient Rome did not have Hay, nor candles, nor soap, nor barrels nor tubs (All dark ages inventions). The inventions of the Dark ages are only surpassed by the inventions of the last 200 years, but inventions that helped people who were working as opposed to people who were ruling. Even better knowledge of plants started in the Dark ages (For example the trimming of vines to produce more grapes in the following year, first done in the Dark ages and spread by the Monks who first practiced this domestic "Art").

Yes, the inventions of the Middle Ages ENHANCED the working class, and spread rapidly. The Dark Ages are called the Dark Ages for intellectual pursuits were in Decline. You were valued more for what you did for your community or group than what you did for yourself (thus the high religious orientation of the time period, tied in with biblical rule to help the poor and the less fortunate).

The reason for this spread? (and lack of spread during Roman times?). The freeing of control of the Church (the main mean of Data Information distribution before the Printing Press) and related information Distribution systems from the control of the Roman Elite. Recent research even indicated this lost of Control by the Roman Elite even spread into the Eastern Empire (which remained under the "Roman Empire" Control throughout the Dark Ages). With this lost of control (and a policy of spreading information that helped people) people where free to spread information on how to make things, on how to build things, on how to transport things. These "Arts and Sciences" do not have the glamor of the true Arts but produce more "Wealth" for the working class than all of the Arts and Science of the Ancient world.

I suspect the same in the upcoming "Dark Ages", the powers that be will slowly lose control. People will group together to protect themselves from others AND TO PUSH FOR THEIR RIGHTS. Fears of Foreign Invasions (and terrorists) will be used to control but as these are show to be false fears people will stop reacting to them and assert THEIR RIGHTS.

In the Dark Ages it was the rights of the Common Man that expanded (You still had slavery but it was rare, but Slavery exists to this day so the existence of a slave or two proves nothing, for it was the general improvement of the Working Class that was the product of the Dark Ages not that everyone improved).

As to the barbarian invasions, close examinations of them show that most of them (if not ALL of them) were the product of INVITATIONS by the power elite of Rome so they could be used to suppress the peasants
Those that were NOT invited by the elite, seems to have been either invited by representatives of the Peasants (as in the Arabs Conquest of Egypt and maybe even the Lombard Invasion of Italy, c570 AD) or able to enhance they strength by recruiting from the Roman Pleasantry (as did the Goths as they march through Italy c400 AD).

Now some of these invitations backfired (For example the invitation of the Vandals into Modern Tunisia which lead to the Vandals conquering Tunisia and using it as a base to attack Rome in 450 AD). Now many of the invasions had elements of both support by the peasants AND the elite (For example while the Vandals had been invited into Tunisia by the Roman Elite to help in War over who should be the Roman Emperor, once the Vandals were in Tunisia they merged with the Peasants and did radical land reforms as the Peasants wanted but the Roman Elites did not).

The Dark Ages are a complex time period, it is a time period where control by force ceased. Control could only be kept by want or need. When force was used it only tended to survive a generation or two than collapse. Example of this are the Roman Re-conquest of Italy under Justinian, which was done about 550 but lost to the Lombards in 570. The Roman Re-conquest of Tunisia (c530) was earlier and lost later (c650), but more complete for within 100 years of Tunisia's conquest by the Arabs almost no one was still a Christian (Which compared to Egypt, which was Conquered by the Arabs almost 20 years earlier than Tunisia, but would remain majority Christian till the Crusades c1200 AD).

The same of the upcoming "Dark Ages" we will organize ourselves as needed and as we want but with little or no force. Arts will decline, Basic Science will decline (Through arts and Science that enhances livability of the masses will survive and spread rapidly). I see the net surviving, through most Governments will fall. Corporations will also fall for without Governments to protect them (Both from the workers AND other Corporations) Corporations can NOT survive. I do NOT foresee Chaos, or lost of Order, we will organize ourselves on as as-needed basis. New Governments will form (For Example Dark Age Italy broke up into City-States that could protect themselves and their members). Relationships between levels of Governments will become "Feudal" in the sense that people's loyalty will be to their community NOT to their State or Nation. People will continue to recognize certain obligations to higher governmental formation but when conflict between those higher formation and their local Community, it will be the local Community that will prevail (You will even see situations where a Local Community goes to war against the nation it is in allied with a "Foreign Nation", just like what happened during the Dark ages and the Middle Ages, for example when England wared with France during the Hundred Year War, Burgundy, a province of France was allied with England against France AND SUCH AN ALLIANCE WAS NOT VIEWED AS TREASON BY ANY OF THE THREE).

In sum a major change from today's top to bottom formation of Society, a change that is needed to reduce the power of today's elite. There will be costs incurred by this change but the gains from the changes will be greater than the losses.
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HEIL PRESIDENT GOD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 05:40 PM
Response to Reply #44
45. Really interesting take
I'd like to know your source books, not because I'm challenging your accuracy, but because they sound like good reading. I enjoyed a book called "The Year 1000" a few years back, which presented a cheerier picture of the Dark Ages than my European history teacher.

When I say Dark Ages, however, I'm not only referring to that era in Europe, which may even be a bad example. There was a Dark Age from about 1200-800 BCE after the invasion of the Eastern Mediterranean by Caucasians. China has had multiple dark ages, and it could be said that Africa today is in one that began with colonization. The welfare of individual common people differed greatly from time to time and place to place. Some people in the European Dark Ages prospered from their release from Roman Rule; others found themselves suddenly subjected to Anglo-Saxon and Viking slaughter.

Emotionally I feel that the world should be divided into smaller geographic units, that human organization should be brought to a more intimate level, and that individuals should have MUCH more responsibility for their own safety and sustenance. But I am realistic about the amount of violence this transition would entail unless it were extremely gradual--which the coming crises of resources will not be in the least. Power's main purpose is to maintain itself, and its intellectual strength is in creating technologies of destruction. Add AK-47s to your European Dark Ages, and you don't just have a killer D&D campaign; you have a world I imagine I wouldn't like to live in.

The aristocrats who came into the power vacuum in Europe were warlords, heirs to people who had proven themselves not as wise leaders but as effective fighters. Modernity inherited this lineage of violence, added layers of its own, and created masses of people prone to violence because of the messages in its religion and entertainment. I don't believe the impending implosion will be good for people until the VERY long run. The very globality of our civilization--no migrations without war--bodes ill.
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chaska Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 01:24 PM
Response to Original message
36. Read 'Ishmael' by Daniel Quinn
He has most of the missing puzzle pieces.
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Blue_Tires Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 02:12 PM
Response to Original message
43. the only economic model i realistically forsee for the future
is the one where greedy CEOs and Wall Street continue to rape the working class, pollute the environment, and then defraud the whole company of billions and retire with their $$$$ on some private island
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camero Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-14-04 06:09 PM
Response to Reply #43
46. That's the model that's unsustainable
Everything these assholes touch turns to shit.
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