Bogus polls mask landslide in the making

[dave502d]

Voter dissatisfaction indicates it won't be close
Bogus polls mask landslide in the making


Conventional wisdom suggests this year's presidential election will be close. Practically every poll taken has the race within the margin of error.
http://www.workingforchange.com/article.cfm?itemid=17880

[NMDemDist2]

1. yup. the horserace model is hype only

the landslide will "shock and awe" the country.

except us DUers of course

[eyeontheprize]

2. God I hope your right,

but I have this horrible feeling. Ever since Jeb won reelection I've given up on the argument that the Democrats aren't going to take it.

Not just the presidential race, but all over. The world will never forgive the United States.

[Mz Pip]

4. That's how I feel

I had the same feeling that 2002 would take it all back for the Dems because Bush and the Reps were such a disaster. So as much as I want to be optimistic I have this "Once burned, twice shy" attitude.

A Kerry victory would reaffirm my faith in this country and its citizens. Cautious optimism is about all I can muster these days.

MzPip
:dem:

[wildflower]

6. Don't forget that * had an 80% to 90% approval rating...

not that long before then. Things are so much different now.

-wildflower

[Kanary]

3. Local Dem with Veterans for Kerry says much the same thing.

We really won't know until after the election.

With so many of those new registrations under contention right now, who knows how many of those new voters will actually be able to cast their vote.

Also, I don't discount the effect Diebold will have.

I've seen too much willingness by this group of thugs to hope without reservation.

If this article turns out to be true, the celebration will be sweet!

Kanary

[nostamj]

5. totally agree. the obsession with 'polls' drives me nuts....

SCREW YOUR POLLS AND SHUT UP

(To the tune of "Take This Job and Shove It")

SCREW YOUR POLLS AND SHUT UP
I WON'T BUY YOUR CRAP NO MORE
THE SAMPLES ARE SKEWED
YOU SAY IT'S TOO CLOSE--
HEARD THAT LIE BEFORE.
YOUR POPULAR POLLING SIMPLY DOESN'T MEAN SHIT
AL GORE KNOWS THE SCORE...
SCREW YOUR POLLS AND SHUT UP
I WON'T BUY YOUR CRAP NO MORE

I'VE BEEN LIVING WITH THESE FASCISTS
FOR NEARLY FOUR LONG YEARS
ALL THIS TIME, I WATCHED MY COUNTRY
BEING RUN BY FEAR AND SMEARS
CAN WE ASK HOW MANY MORE MEN MUST DIE,
ALL THE ONES WHOSE VOTES ARE LOST?
I WON'T GIVE IN TO YOUR RIGHT WING SPIN,
YOUR PROJECTIONS ARE A LIE!

SCREW YOUR POLLS AND SHUT UP
I WON'T BUY YOUR CRAP NO MORE
THE SAMPLES ARE SKEWED
YOU SAY IT'S TOO CLOSE--
HEARD THAT LIE BEFORE.
YOUR POPULAR POLLING SIMPLY DOESN'T MEAN SHIT
AL GORE KNOWS THE SCORE
SCREW YOUR POLLS AND SHUT UP
I WON'T BUY YOUR CRAP NO MORE

WELL MY MAMA'S HEARIN' RUSH LIMBAUGH'S RANTS
AND EV'RY FOX NEWS SHOW.
IF YOU ASK FOR HER OPINION
YOU KNOW SHE DON'T KNOW.
ELECTION DAY, WE BRING IT TO A STOP
YOU LIARS ARE GONNA PAY
AND I CAN'T WAIT TO SEE YOUR FACES
WHEN THE MAJORITY CAN SAY:

SCREW YOUR POLLS AND SHUT UP
I WON'T BUY YOUR CRAP NO MORE
THE SAMPLES ARE SKEWED
YOU SAY IT'S TOO CLOSE--
HEARD THAT LIE BEFORE.
YOUR POPULAR POLLING SIMPLY DOESN'T MEAN SHIT
AL GORE KNOWS THE SCORE
SCREW YOUR POLLS AND SHUT UP
I WON'T BUY YOUR CRAP NO MORE

SCREW YOUR POLLS AND SHUT UP!

[VolcanoJen]

11. Love it!!!!!

Thank you, nostamj, for making me optimistic, while making me laugh my ass off. :D :D :D

[nostamj]

14. oh, you're quite welcome...

glad you liked it! (did you see "The Cheney Clan"?)

[featherman]

7. The current polling actually DOES indicate a likely strong

Kerry victory. IF you know how to read the polls. BECAUSE you have to figure in intrinsic disproportional underpolling of specific DEM voting blocs,the ground war edge, intensity and motivation, historical apportionment of "undecideds", etc.

Admittedly the general public (and the talking heads) foolishly take skewed figures at face value with little contextual understanding. But what can ya do except keep repeating "interpret the data, interpret the data...".

[whistle]

10. That sounds like "figures don't lie, but liars figure", why the mental...

...gyrations when a good well designed national survey will bring new data to the table? It may be too late for the current election for that now though.

[featherman]

16. polling is not an actual science but simply an interpretation of data

and the only value it has is based on the accuracy of that interpretation. Some are better at this than others.
It seems like where most pollsters are missing the boat this year is the assumption that the incumbent is popular and will drive supporters to the polls in greater proportion than the challenger's supporters. This seems to be opposite of my own interpretation of the state of mind of the electorate. But...whatever.
Another interpretation factor seems to be that an incumbent increases "party self identification" to reflect that incumbent's party. This is the voter who supports the President because he is the President, our leader. The primary reason, IMO, that the DEMS trail in "support their candidate" ratios.

[whistle]

8. I agree, the polls have relied upon a sampling model that is out-of-date

...and no longer reflects the voter blocks and profiles in the country. The polling companies are also corrupted by their own greed to maximize their returns since neither party has been interested in underwriting the costs of a truly representative national poll.

[w4rma]

9. Anyone who thinks this is going to be a landslide is deluding themselves.

It's not. Just ignore the polls and spend that time on increasing our share of the vote.

[drdtroit]

13. The polls are just "tools" for the White House.

If they reflected the true voter (not just the slanted "likely voters") outrage towards shrub and his cartel they wouldn't be able to pull off the grand larceny in the planning.

[Ezlivin]

12. Has anyone here EVER been asked to participate in one of these polls?

Neither me or my wife or anyone we've ever known has participated.

Where do they perform these polls? Shopping malls?

I find the polls as useful as a 10-day weather forecast—and about as accurate.

[leesa]

15. The point of the polls is to make the GOP theft attempt plausible.

[drdtroit]

17. You got it! n/t