Paul Begala says Kerry WILL win

[friesianrider]

He spoke on my campus tonight, and Paul said he has access to private polls that are very credible, and he said Kerry's gonna win - probably by around 3% points or more. He also said that the best, most reliable "equation" that tells us if a President will be re-elected is the right track/wrong track question. He said given the numbers for the re-election efforts of Reagan (who was of course re-elected) and Bush Sr (who of course was not re-elected), Bush is somewhere in the middle, but closer to his Dad. He said both these factors make him pretty comfortable predicting a Kerry win - big enough that the GOP can't reaosnably contest it (although they'll try).

Just passing along some good news; stay positive everyone and envision a Kerry victory!!

[johnnyrocket]

1. What's he have to say about the Stewart ambush!?

He must not have liked it...why did he actually say Bush was a good guy?

[friesianrider]

4. I don't know...

Paul I think sees good in everybody, and he said he likes Bush fine, he just thinks he's a terrible President. I've never met Chimpie so can't say ;)

He didn't really mention Jon Stewart, someone mentioned him in a question and Paul (and the crowd) had a good laugh remembering Friday's Crossfire!

[Arkana]

19. Paul Begala said it in his book

"Is Our Children Learning? The Case Against President George W. Bush" that Bush was a nice guy and all, but he didn't do shit for Texas.

[My Pet Goat]

2. Thanks for taking the time to pass that along...

appreciate it.

[sally343434]

3. I've made the same observation

All the polls about who is better at this or that never seem to be that accurate at who gets elected. It's the negatives. If a candidate has X% negatives, the other candidate gets that X% of the vote.

[friesianrider]

5. I agree, too...

Paul said that * needs to make up I think 10% on the right track/wrong track question to be re-elected. I think he said that's something like 100,000 (maybe 1 mill?) votes - I don't really remember but he said it was statistically speaking pretty impossible.

He pretty much said Kerry's got it in the bag - so long as WE keep working our asses off and make sure we get every person we know off their ass on Election Day and get out to vote! Turnout, turnout, turnout always benefits us and if we can do it, we'll all be celebrating a Kerry presidency come January!! We can do it!

[LTRS]

6. Was in DC about 10 days ago....

and was also lucky enough to get a look at those polls, and Begala is right. Kerry is headed for a win. Don't let up on GOTV, but I believe we will all be VERY happy on Nov 3rd.

[Poiuyt]

7. Thanks for the info

Sometimes it's hard to keep your chin up with all that's been going on.

[mahina]

8. Cannot tell you how grateful I am for that info.

I try not to get too overwrought but lately it's been tough. Big mahalos for that great news, it lifted years off my shoulders! :)

[friesianrider]

11. Worry not my fellow Dems...

I trust Paul's evaluation, and he says the polls he has access to point to a Kerry victory. We'll have to be vigilant, but things are looking very, very good for us. Ignore those Gallup right-wing polls. Come on - none of us seriously buys that Chimp is 8% ahead! Paul says that without a doubt, the best and most reliable predictor of re-election success or failure is the right/wrong track question. Given that information, Bush is gonna be toast come November 2!

I have a very, very good feeling that good will triumph over bad this time. We've been waiting for this for four long years, and I KNOW none of us are going to roll over and die now! Karma is about to catch up with Chimp, and Mr. Rove's luck is about to run out. Truth is on our side, and we need no other defense than that.

Kerry WILL win if we all believe it in our hearts, and each do our parts to GOTV in two weeks! Imagine the flood of relieved posts on here when Kerry is declared the winner! Imagine the voters interviewed who will be so relieved "help is on the way"! I can see it now...keep believing, keep envisioning the relief and the excitement and it WILL happen!!

[Kanary]

12. How does he say that fits into the sudden upswing in *'s numbers?

:shrug:

[friesianrider]

13. You assume the polls are correct ;)

The ones showing an 8% point lead for Bush, which we all know is complete phooey. Gallup has been shown to sample favoring Republicans, and we don;t need to rehash all the new voters, etc. Let's also not forget that Gallup, in the last days of October 2000, had Gore down by what...14%? Gore went on to win the popular by 3%.

Paul literally said "those polls that have Bush up by 8% or something like that...pssh". He gestured brushing them off, and said he has access to private polls that are very reliable and show Kerry with a reasonable lead (plus, he's a former strategist - the right/wrong track question predicts the re-election hopes best, and in this case Bush isn't looking too good). He said candidly: "Kerry's gonna win this thing".

[Kanary]

16. I assume nothing. I thought I could ask a question.

Sorry I barged in on your thread.

Please excuse me.

Kanary

[friesianrider]

17. Oh. um...

I wasn't trying to be nasty at all, just saying that you'd have to believe the polls to respond to the supposed "bounce" Bush received, which it sounds like PB did not. Sheesh.

[friesianrider]

15. Also...

The Gallup poll is of course the one the whoring media reports the most, but it is one of the only (if not THE only) major poll that has Bush up and out of the margin of error. I saw two polls that had Bush up 2 or 3 with margins of error of 4 or 5 points.

Again, the polls that the media chooses to report to us are a bunch of BS; we all know this. :)

[sundancekid]

9. yep. Kerry.in.a.landslide. SmarmySmirk is a total WRONG track.

Polls? We don't need NO STINKIN' polls.
Don't buy into the propaganda machines.
Keep sayin' and prayin': KERRY IN A LANDSLIDE

and, oh yea, work yer/our butts off on that GOTV ...

WHEN WE WIN THE TURNOUT, WE TURN OUT TO BE WINNERS!

[Barney Rocks]

10. I think the polls are

just putting out bogus data trying to depress us and make us lose our momentum. I don't believe the polls for one minute!

[T Town Jake]

14. So do I - Begala is right. We're going to win. (n/t)

[robbedvoter]

18. Begala also thinks W is a nice man. This worries me.

I mean, I KNOW there's enough of us out there to win in a landslide (much more than 3% points).
But what BFEE trait will triumph in this election? Their dishonesty or their incompetence? That's my only question.
Polls are BS.

[nostalgicaboutmyfutr]

20. Think of polls like Stoack analysis....

you know there is the standard public analysis that always seems to trail behind the true analysis.....

the regular polls all folks quote are what 'they' want you to hear/see...

the polls done by the dem or pukes for tha matter are very specific and controled by the them so that they are looking for very pricise information....

that all said....vote early...get your friends out to vote....get everyone you know to the polls....