Cell Phone Users Under 35 - Repubs or Dems?

[TexasSissy]

On MSNBC one of the pundits was talking about how the unknown factor in all the polls is the approx. 12% of cell phone users under the age of 35 without land lines.

We knew about this issue. I assumed that the young ones would be Dems or independents. But now for the first time I'm wondering - yeegods --- are they Republicans? Wouldn't the cell phone users be college kids whose parents have the $$$ to buy them cell phones, and so they'd be more likely to be Repubs? Or would they be 30 year old sales people? Are they mainly women or men?

Anyone have any stats on the cell phone users who don't have land lines? This could mean another 10% added to one candidate or the other!

[footinmouth]

1. Two sons

Both cell phone only guys, one registered Democrat, one registered Independent, both voting for Kerry. Does that make you feel any better? One makes lots of money, one makes squat, neither can believe that around half the country will be voting for a dumb ass.

[Kierkegaard]

2. Or, they could be IT people, like my wife and I.

There is a diverse group that could fit into this category.

[madmom]

3. my daughter is a 20 year old college student...

with a cell phone. She is definitely a dem. There are cell phones that don't cost a arm and a leg basically the prepaid, and they work quite well.

[IrishBloodEngHeart]

4. that's me!

I don't have a land line, I'm 34, and unfortunately dropped my cell phone in a bucket of water yesteday. I'm without a phone for 3 days!

Seriously, the polls are undercounting people like me, and people who are new voters. Kerry is at worst tied right now.

[oldlady]

5. Dems

I know more than 20 who fit this category. All but one voting Kerry. The holdout is speaking Nader, but may check Kerry on Nov. 2

[lakeguy]

6. The group of friends I hang out with

all have cell phones and no land line...2 repubs and 8 dems but all are voting Kerry this time around.

[TexasSissy]

7. Phew! Thanks, guys. I needed that. Was having a panic attack!

I don't have a cell phone at all! So I'm in the dark as to who has those and uses them to the extent that they don't keep a land line. I don't know anyone w/o a regular phone.

Glad to know that Dems have them! And IT people (of course!).

[kysrsoze]

8. Most people go with cellphone only because they can't afford both

My guess is 80%+ democratic.

[Philostopher]

9. Comparatively, they're just not that expensive anymore.

They're not that much more expensive than carrying a land-line, if you shop wisely. I don't even have a cell -- we don't see any point in paying for both services, and we have thus far decided we prefer to keep a land-line phone with an answering machine.

But here's another thing to consider -- we're in another one of those 'gray areas' as far as phone polling is concerned. We have Caller ID and an answering machine, and we screen all our calls. We're not on the Do Not Call register, and we own our home, so we receive an immense number of cold calls from mortgage companies trying to get us to refinance. We don't want to. We don't answer the phone unless it's someone we know and know we want to talk to. The pollsters don't get us, either. I know we're not alone, though I don't know what kind of percentage we're talking about, here, and I don't know what the demographics would be of people like us, who don't pick up the phone every time it rings. May not make a difference, I don't now -- but we are another 'blank spot' as phone polling is concerned.

[TexasSissy]

10. I'm in your situation, too. No cell phone. Only land. Own home, so

I get tons of telemarketers, although less since I put my # on the national and state "do not call" lists. I SOMETIMES just answer the phone, but usu. I screen to avoid calls that are from people or numbers unfamiliar to me.

It would be hard to poll me. Not impossible, but difficult.

[Used and Abused]

18. excellent point about caller ID

I avoid virtually all calls, even some from friends. A telemarketer / poller will definitely not have access to me. It could be that Republicans are more inclined to speak to random strangers on the phone.

[snooper2]

11. All my friends like that...

can think of 7 with no land lines voting dem...I can think of two * supporters with only cell phones, but they don't vote..

One of the main reasons polls are bullshit, and the number is higher than 12%, probably more like 20-30%.

Down with Pete Sessions cell phone users!

[Barney Rocks]

12. some of each I imagine.

I have observed that the people with more money seem to be more likely to get cell phones young and switch over quickly. The poorer people are on the slower side with new technology. But cell phones are getting cheaper all the time--so as time goes by I think this will be less obvious.

[ArkDem]

13. The poorer people ARE NOT getting cheaper all the time!

[Barney Rocks]

15. I meant the phones

are getting cheaper all the time--not the people. I am one of the working poor myself.

[ArkDem]

20. Oh, never mind.

[pauliedangerously]

14. I would disagree...

with your generalization about the poor. They may not have the newest and the fanciest, but cell phones are widely available. I live in the inner city and see cell phone users ALL OVER THE PLACE.

Cells have been around for quite awhile, and several generations of cell phones have been rolled out in the last decade. So, YES, you are probably right about the poor being a generation or two behind on the technology, ie flip-tops, and video, but the "vanilla" cell is all over the place, and the competition is fierce.

I am hopeful that the cell mystery will turn out to favor Kerry.

[GreenPoet64]

17. I live in a low SES area and have noticed . . .

many single moms with teens or elementary age children opt for cell phone over land line so they can keep in touch for safety reasons.

Also I don't trust polls because people with more traditional republican values are more likely to be homemakers--and to be near a phone when the polsters call. If you look at Rasmussen's daily numbers over the last few months, you will notice that the weekends favor Kerry. (I'm thinking you are more likely to get in touch the working class on the weekends).

In other words: If you're working two jobs, and can't afford a phone, you're less likely to get polled.

I think the cell phone variable is bigger than both parties realize.

[politicat]

16. Cells tend to be cheaper than land lines if you go for the Prepay route

or use a service like Cricket where the cost is cheaper than a land line...

From what I see, cell only transcends all lines.

Pcat

[geniph]

19. My stepsons both have cell phones

thanks to Family Plan calling plans that allow them in on their mother's cell phone for very little additional money. Both are of voting age, and thanks to Michael Moore and Howard Stern, not only are both voting Democratic, they've rallied all their friends to vote, too.

[mindfulNJ]

21. A son and a daughter

19 and 21...both cell only, and both voting for Kerry.:)