Gallop on Iowa, Kerry ahead registered but not with Likely voters

[still_one]

Gallop is really screwed:

Iowa

likely voters

bush 50
Kerry 46
uk 3


registered voters

bush 47
Kerry 48
uk 4

Oct 22 through Oct 25

[Dalvis]

1. that means....

Kerry is ahead by several points

[cubsfan forever]

4. Yes, I don't know why they

continually use LVs as a baseline. This omits tons of people (particularly young people)from the mix. You are quite right, this means that Kerry is up by several points.

Professor 2

[GOPBasher]

2. "Likely voter" models are stupid. They mean nothing.

This is why gallup had Bush leading Gore in 2000 by comfortable margins, yet Gore won the popular vote (and the electoral college).

[9119495]

6. I am personally picking up votes in Iowa

If a dem is registered, they are voting. We are going to their houses to pick up ballots and beginning Thursday, we will canvas neighborhoods with up-to-date voter lists every day crossing off those who've voted and dragging others to the polls. Republicans just don't do that stuff as well here.

In 2000, dems got more absentee votes by a 6-1 margin over reps. It will be a closer margin this time but still

[displacedtexan]

3. Excellent news!

JK is also ahead in early voting in San Antonio... BIG HUGE RETIRED MILITARY COMMUNITY (Fort Sam Houston).

Stats are posted on my blog (under the burning bush).

[Nicholas_J]

5. Now ZOgby has Kerry ahead in Iowa

n/t