check out electoral-vote.com .. interesting n/t

[President Kerry]

[WLKjr]

1. link please

like so

http://www.electoral-vote.com

[gardenista]

2. It's interesting EVERY day. What's so special about today?

BTW, it's also wrong. Based on polls that don't account for new voters. We will wipe out those miniscule margins of the boy king quite handily.

I also think we'll take the Senate.

I like the site, but it is a victim of its own methodology, and because of the data used, is innacurate.

[President Kerry]

5. they use assumptions...

- Voters who already have made a choice will stick to it
- The undecideds will break 2:1 for the challenger (Kerry)
- In states where Nader is on the ballot, he will get 1%; otherwise 0% (was 2.74% nationally in 2000)
- The minor candidates such as Badnarik, Cobb, etc. will get 1% of the vote (was 1.01% in 2000)

[gardenista]

6. And your point is what, exactly? nt

[President Kerry]

8. there's no foolproof poll.. my point is that they give JK 2/3

of undecideds, which might be a bit generous. So the poll MIGHT be a bit overoptimistic. Still some states are scary--i never would think we could lose HI or NJ. But i don't know what their pool of voters is--that's a big source of bias.

[gardenista]

9. Ok, I now have enough information to call BULLSHIT on this post.

Are you sure you want to do this before Tuesday? We have lots more fun ahead of us.

There were SO many more things that I found interesting today. But most interesting of all will be when we kick Bush's Chicken Shit Ass back to Texas.

[paulk]

15. why do you think the the 2-1 break of undecideds to Kerry is

"a bit generous"? Is this based on past elections or is it just your opinion?

Most of what I have read about incumbent races like this show undecideds breaking toward the challenger by more than two to one - in some cases as high as 80 to 90%.

[President Kerry]

17. there's a difference between independents and undecideds..

but in any case it's just my opinion.. while i think independents go overwhelmingly for kerry, anyone that's STILL undecided is a wild-card. So i expected it to be 50-50...

[paulk]

27. you may find this article interesting

http://www.pollingreport.com/incumbent.htm

[PittLib]

3. PA is not tied!

Argh! Where are they getting this?

[Maiden England]

4. that site is more undecided that your average undecided voter

it also flip flops about 20 times a day,

[Bluebear]

7. I'll finally say it. That site is full of shit.

EV's fly hither and thither like a seesaw every day. Completely unreliable IMHO.

[Name removed]

10. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[President Kerry]

12. Pardon? what do you mean unmasked???

read what i wrote first pls..

[President Kerry]

14. 2 things:

1) i'm not a freep and i resent u calling me one

2) just in general, keep hostility to yourself. I never said i agreed with the poll, I just found it interesting.

[Name removed]

16. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[President Kerry]

what's Republican poll talking points??

this is not Thought police AND it's subjective. I'm a liberal that just joined hence the low post count. In any case, i won't take offense, but I suggest we reconsider before accusing somebody of trolling on pure BS.

[gardenista]

20. You are saying that Kerry's EV outlook is even worse than depicted on EV

in today's "interesting" map.

To me, that sounds like a Republican poll talking point.

Show me how I'm reading you wrong.

[gardenista]

19. Why won't you be clear about exactly what you find interesting

about today's results on EV?

What I read you saying here is that you think that Kerry's going to lose.

I believe fervently that that is untrue, and all indications are that it is untrue.

If your point is to discuss EV methodology, please do so in relation to our mutual goal. A Kerry win.

Are you saying that EV is skewing for Kerry? That's what I'm reading in your posts.

[President Kerry]

21. No, that isn't what i'm saying at all...

As I said, I find some of their projections to be stupid--such as giving MN, MI, NJ, and HI to *--none of which I believe there's any chance in hell of happening. Given their assumptions, which are 2-1 undecided vote going to JK, I found that surprising. And there's no information on the voter pool--so there's NO BASIS to judge the validity of the poll, and that wasn't what I was doing.

I just found that to be interesting site, that I was soliciting du'ers opinion on.

[gardenista]

22. Ok, now we're having a discussion. It was too cryptic before for my

small and tired brain to understand what you were going for.

So, I apologize for being "tetchy".

[President Kerry]

23. haha... i'm afraid that's exactly the kind of attitude we need to

fight off the gop bastards on nov2.. so nothing to apologize for.:)..
it makes me feel good that finally we're adopting the collective "we won't take it anymore" attitude.

:toast:

[gardenista]

24. So glad you understand.

:toast:

I must admit, I'm usually not so paranoid.

Let's be sure to discuss EV again after Kerry wins!

[President Kerry]

25. 3 more days..... and this nightmare will be over..

OVER!!!!!!!!!..

Good night fellow DUers, and have no doubt--we WILL PREVAIL!

[high density]

11. Well even if we don't know the outcome on Nov 3rd...

...at least these lame ass polls will go away for about three years.

[onehandle]

13. Relax. Pollsters and pundits left and right are predicting a Kerry win.

Democrats will go to the polls on Tuesday. When Democrats vote, Democrats win.

Small dicked Freepers, get smaller all of the time.

[bpilgrim]

18. this is an excellent site for the lame-stream media numbers

but they are missing a LOT of folks imho.

i still see it as a landslide for kerry because i'm betting on the pundits to be WRONG as usual... but that sites is well done for tracking THEIR projections.

thanks for sharing :toast:

btw: has anyone double checked his poll numbers against his sources :shrug:

peace

[LiberteToujours]

26. I think this guy's heart in the right place

But he made a mistake in refusing to average polls. He started doing it a couple months ago when the polling started getting heavier but he backed down under criticism. But taking only the most recent poll at this point in the race is really quite useless. Polls only one day apart differ much more in other factors such as methodology than in how far apart they are.

[porkrind]

28. This website is all over the place,

but these are supposed to be current polls, not a prediction of election results. For the prediction, go to:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/pred/index.html

This shows that Kerry will beat bush easily based on a moving trend of the poll history.

[hollywood926]

29. I've been following this site all along...

and it does flip and flop, but overall I like what he/she has to say in the text below the map. He seems to be quite fair. I think as long as it remains a virtual dead heat, Kerry wins.