Could the Persian Gulf become a deathtrap for the US fleet?

[starroute]

This article was posted in Foreign Affairs/National Security two days ago and hasn't garnered a single comment. It's far too important to be allowed to go unnoticed.

It suggests that there's a world-class disaster in the making if the US (or Israel as a US surrogate) tries to attack Iran's nuclear facilities and the Iranians respond by striking back at the US fleet with anti-ship missiles.

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article7147.htm

The Gulf is nothing but a large lake, with one narrow outlet, and most of its northern shore, i.e., Iran, consists of mountainous terrain that affords a commanding tactical advantage over ships operating in Gulf waters. The rugged northern shore makes for easy concealment of coastal defenses, such as mobile missile launchers, and also makes their detection problematic.

<snip>

Let us pray that the US sailors who are unlucky enough to be on duty in the Persian Gulf when the shooting starts can escape the fate of the Roman army at Cannae. The odds will be heavily against them, however, because they will face the same type of danger, tantamount to envelopment. The US ships in the Gulf will already have come within range of the Sunburn missiles and the even more-advanced SS-NX-26 Yakhonts missiles, also Russian-made (speed: Mach 2.9; range: 180 miles) deployed by the Iranians along the Gulf’s northern shore. Every US ship will be exposed and vulnerable. When the Iranians spring the trap, the entire lake will become a killing field.

<snip>

From here, it only gets worse. Armed with their Russian-supplied cruise missiles, the Iranians will close the lake’s only outlet, the strategic Strait of Hormuz, cutting off the trapped and dying Americans from help and rescue. The US fleet massing in the Indian Ocean will stand by helplessly, unable to enter the Gulf to assist the survivors or bring logistical support to the other US forces on duty in Iraq. Couple this with a major new ground offensive by the Iraqi insurgents, and, quite suddenly, the tables could turn against the Americans in Baghdad. As supplies and ammunition begin to run out, the status of US forces in the region will become precarious. The occupiers will become the besieged…

With enough anti-ship missiles, the Iranians can halt tanker traffic through Hormuz for weeks, even months. With the flow of oil from the Gulf curtailed, the price of a barrel of crude will skyrocket on the world market. Within days the global economy will begin to grind to a halt. ... From across America will be heard histrionic cries for fresh reinforcements, even a military draft. Patriots will demand victory at any cost. Pundits will scream for an escalation of the conflict. A war that ostensibly began as an attempt to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons will teeter on the brink of their use…

[napi21]

1. The Navy Fleet is much better than you think!

I sure can't speak to the price of oil. I suspect it will skyrocket, but then it's done that already, huh?

The fleet will surely have their hands full, but these guys are very good at their jobs. They will have strong superiority!

[Media_Lies_Daily]

2. How's that Koolaid taste this morning?....

I'm former Navy from about thirty years ago, and even I know that good defensive weapons are only as good as their ability to survive successive waves of incoming missile strikes.

[napi21]

3. Well, my son is active duty Navy. Was on the Nimitz during the 1st Gulf

war. I don't need koolaid! I know from his first hand experience.

[jpak]

4. US anti-ship missile defenses will have a hard time

defending against late model high-Mach Russian missiles.

Mines are also a threat, as are small boat attacks by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

If any one of the 3 Iranian Kilo class subs gets to sea, a considerable effort will have to be made to sink it. That alone would shut down tanker traffic in the Gulf.

...and let's not forget the thousands of Iranian mujahadeen that will spill across the borders of Iraq and Afghanistan...

$100 a barrel oil???? I think $150 a barrel would not be out of the question.

If we attack Iran, we would both the US and World Economy.

ChimpCo better think long and hard about this one....

[sleipnir]

5. Not bloody likely

The reason no one is commenting is that it's really not at all likely. This article ignores logic, basic known capabilities of the US Navy, the failure of Russian weapons systems, lack of real nuclear weapons owned by the Iranians. I'm not in the mood to write a huge debunk on this, but let's just say it's just a war fantasy.

The only real danger is if Iran actually possess Chinese Silkworm anti-ship missiles. Those missiles could actually defeat the known defenses of the US ships if launched in large enough quantities. But then again, Iran doesn't have the large quantities that would be needed.

[Maylee]

6. I don't buy it either

This is the sort of combat the military plans for. Just because we're in an unwinable insurgent war we need not question the military's ability to prevail in conventional combat. My 2 cents...