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How accurate were the polls in theIowa Primary?

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NNguyenMD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-31-04 05:16 PM
Original message
How accurate were the polls in theIowa Primary?
Edited on Sun Oct-31-04 05:33 PM by NNguyenMD
I don't remember how accurate the polls were before Kerry won Iowa, but were all the pollsters and networks pretty much calling it a clear Dean victory? Shortly before being proven devastatingly wrong.

Makes me wonder if the margin of a Kerry victory will be much greater than the polls are suggesting.
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DU9598 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-31-04 05:26 PM
Response to Original message
1. It was a caucus
That makes polls much less reliable. But, they were all wrong. Dean went in with the lead and finished third. Kerry was trailing and won. But, people switch candidates in caucuses if their first candidate is not viable.
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ISUGRADIA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-31-04 05:54 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. No..they were not all wrong
The final DSM Reg Poll had Kerry 26%, Edwards 23%, Dean 20% and Gephardt 18% . The poll demonstrated Kerry's and Edwards' momentum.


http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2004/01/19/MNG5V4CRC01.DTL&type=printable

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