PLEASE KEEP THIS HOT and COMMENT - THEORY ABOUT POLLS

[DuaneBidoux]

I have a theory that the average household that supports Kerry has many more voting age adults than the average household that supports Shrub. Do they adjust for this by ethnicity?

I have Asian friends that are letting their son and his wife stay with them while they save for a house: 1 polling call (but 4 votes for Kerry).

Some other friends of mine are Arab and I know they are ALL voting for Kerry (and I'm not even sure how many voting adults they have in their 3900 square foot home but I bet it's more than 5) And they all voted Bush last time. But again=1 polling call and 5 votes.

I think there are many more couples in typical nuclear families who vote shrub (two voting adults). 1 polling call=2 Shrub votes.

Hope I get some responses and thoughts for this. Diversity ROCKS!

[LiberalEsto]

1. 4 votes for Kerry at our house

in Maryland, considered a safe Kerry state.

One daughter is volunteering for Kerry in Florida and my husband has gone canvassing in swing states Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

On Saturday the Maryland/DC-area Democrats sent 200 people to canvass in Harrisburg, PA, and I'm sure there were other buses and vans and individuals headed for the swing states all weekend.

[DuaneBidoux]

3. Thanks for responding...I've wanted to get response badly

but haven't been able to get much (this is about the third time in three days I tried to start a thread). I think my theory might be hot, and might explain a lot about polling weirdness. Again, though, just theory.

[stevedeshazer]

2. If you like to read about polls and the methodology they use, try this

A Consumer's Guide to the Polls
Read the ingredients before you buy.
By William Saletan, David Kenner, and Louisa Herron Thomas
Updated Thursday, Oct. 28, 2004, at 2:31 PM PT

http://www.slate.com/Default.aspx?id=2108778&

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Lots of good stuff. Polls adjust for ethnicity, region, age, gender, and the ubiquitous "likely voter" using all kinds of means.

If you're serious, that is. :shrug:

[DuaneBidoux]

4. thanks - just wonder if they ask "Who you are voting for?"

then ask number in household of voting age, do they adjust for 1 call equaling 4 votes in one household vs. 1 call equaling 2 votes in another.

[stevedeshazer]

5. I got polled just once

A few weeks ago. It was CNNTimeWarnerAOLandKitchenSink. They only asked about me, not my wife or voting-age daughter.

[LiberalFighter]

13. They couldn't assume that all of voting age would vote the same

and that all are registered to vote

[Orangepeel]

6. maybe... but there are also many more singles that support Kerry

so it probably evens out in that regard. Historically, though, if there is a big turnout, the polls tend to underestimate the Democratic vote. There are a lot more Democrats in that state in between LV and RV.

[union_maid]

7. At least 5 in our house

Not counting my son because he only sort of lives here and should have voted by absentee ballot by now. I'm not sure about my son-in-law. He doesn't say much about politics. But that still leaves 5.

[DuaneBidoux]

9. Yea, but that's my point...I don't think it balances out.

If you say there are many many many more voters that are single and support Kerry then maybe. But let's say single support is 60/40 Kerry. You get a single call for a Shrub household and a single call for a Kerry Household, then subtract 30% plus or minus. But then you got households with 5 or 6 Kerry supporters also getting one call. You'd need to get households where they had the capability to have NEGATIVE Shrub votes to balance it out.

[friesianrider]

8. 5 votes for Kerry at our house!

In PA! GO KERRY!

[Zorra]

10. I think your reasoning is sound, good point. n/t

[oldlady]

11. 4 in mine; 5 in my daughter's college apartment n/t

[Hatalles]

12. Muslim votes in Florida...

The national Muslim vote in 2000 was something like 70-80% Bush while this year, polls show 2-8% in favor of Bush. I've heard there are some 250,000 Muslims living in Florida -- do you think this will be enough to turn the tide?