stupid question, what is this about bush not having 50%

[democrat in Tallahassee]

Kerry doesn't have 50 either. not flaming or anything like that just trying to understand.

[MidwestTransplant]

1. Generally undecided voters break strongly for the challenger

so the idea is that an incumbent won't ever get a higher vote margin than their final poll.

[democrat in Tallahassee]

3. ok, thanks

[terrya]

2. Bush is under 50% job approval rating.

No incumbent has won re-election while below 50%.

[democrat in Tallahassee]

7. No incumbent ever in the history of the US? if so, that's great

edited from inbumbent, but in this case, imbumbent might be better. maybe i was thinking incumbent bumbler

[nostamj]

4. an incumbent, war-time prez (sic)

under 50% is toast, if not bread crumbs. and that goes for approval (he's under 50%) and PV (he's under 50%)

[Worst Username Ever]

5. Undecideds break to the challenger.

If the incumbent is under 50%, generally he is fucked.

[bowens43]

6. an incumbant polling

below 50% on election day almost never wins re-election. Those who are undecided on election day almost always overwhelmingly support the challenger.

[nostamj]

9. AND..... 10 MILLION newly registered voters....

the majority will break for Kerry.

[Trajan]

8. The idea is this ....

IF the incumbent does not enjoy over 50% support, then there is a strong likelihood that those who are undecided will NOT support that incumbent .... and that the challenger will get their vote ...

Its a strong argument, but not a guarantee ...

[immoderate]

10. the common wisdom is

that the incumbent is known to the electorate, and if people haven't determined to vote for him/her before the election he will not get their vote. Consequently, the undecided voter will make a lat minute decision for the challenger.

--IMM

[Fleshdancer]

11. When the incumbent is polling less than 50% this close to the election...

then it's a sure sign that he/she won't be re-elected. Apparently undecided voters tend to break for the challenger at the last minute. I don't know why (then again, I can't understand being undecided at this point) but that's what all the mouthpieces on the network news channels are saying.