Al-Hakim killing beginning of Iraqi civil war

[RainDog]

this is an interesting site, too. check it out.

http://www.occupationwatch.org/article.php?id=696

It is still not known who set off the explosion that killed him at the shrine of Ali, grandson of the Prophet Mohammad. It could have been Sunni Arab factions who fear the rise of Shi'a dominance in Iraq, or it could have been his own Shi'a supporters, disappointed with him for cooperating with American policies in Iraq. Or it could have been someone else. What is clear is that his death will now forever be a rallying cry for the Shi'ite community against its enemies.
It is notable that in Shi'ism virtually all significant leaders have been "martyred." Of the 12 historical Imams of the Ithna 'ashara branch of Shi'ism dominant in Iraq and Iran (Ithna 'ashara means "twelve" in Arabic), ten are buried in shrines in Iraq. Their tombs are ever-present reminders of the oppression and struggle of the Shi'a. Now Ayatollah al-Hakim will join them, and with the power of a saint, will inspire generations of grimly dedicated young warriors, determined to wreak vengeance and assert the power of their community. They will be led by his own paramilitary group, the Badr brigade.
Shi'a fury will be directed at the Sunnis to the north. It will also be directed toward United States as the occupying force who both did nothing to prevent this tragedy, and further continued the British doctrine of Sunni favoritism by insisting that the Shi'a religious leaders would never be allowed to come to power. In any case, the forces of retribution are about to be unleashed in a manner hitherto unseen in the region.
Could the United States have done anything to have prevented this tragedy? Of course it could have. As the occupying power U.S. officials knew

[alcuno]

1. Blame the Iraqis.

You've got to love the government spin; they didn't want us near the mosque. It's an occupation, you fools. The occupied aren't supposed to be the ones deciding HOW they are occupied.

[RainDog]

2. I don't know the spin

..and frankly, I don't think it matters any longer.

Iraq is beyond their control. I don't believe they lost control, btw. I don't believe they ever had control in the first place. This is because of what people who know the country were trying to tell them all before all the lies...

that an invasion and overthrow of Saddam would unleash a civil war which would be worse on the innocent Iraqi people than what they knew.

The Bush cabal is so incredibly arrogant or stupid, or both.

An Iraqi civil war, with American troops in the middle, is not something which Fox and CNN, and on and on can spin without totally losing credibility.

This is going to be brutal, I fear.

[ewagner]

3. Watch out for the Wahabis

throughout history they have been the most feared in this region. Apparently, they are Suuni and definitely don't want Shi'ia control over the whole country.

btw...the first American reports (Chalabi as a surrogate) said the bombing was Saddam loyalists. He had to say that to cover the fact that this was the beginning of the Iraqi Civil War and Chalabi is now irrelevant.

[RainDog]

5. Chalabi does not have the support of Iraqis

and yet BushCo keeps trying to tell Americans this is the guy who can lead Iraq to democracy...the Iraqis are smart enough and well informed enough to know he's just the front for American oil co. interests, etc.

The claim that Saddamites did it just parrots Rummy's line that attacks are only from his followers.

The situation is much more complex than that, but America wants its wars in black and white, so the Bush-shit has played at home, if not anywhere else in the world.

Until America, via the media, is ready to face the truth, I suppose we can expect more stupidity in foreign policy.

These idiots need to go before they kill us all.

[RainDog]

4. an independent journalist in Iraq

has this to say-

http://www.back-to-iraq.com/

It could set off a power struggle among the Shi’ites with the moderates — now possibly led by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim (who isn’t even that moderate, frankly) — and the hard-liners, led by firebrand 22-year-old Moqtada Sadr.

If it turns out that Sunnis were behind this, expect riots and clashes in Baghdad.

Iran will be watching this very closely as well. Hakim was their guy in Iraq and it’s unclear now what will happen.

Tin-foil hat theory of my own: Al Qa’ida operatives, who are Sunni, did this in a bid to spark a civil war, which would embroil U.S. troops and tie them down when they might be needed in South Korea, Indonesia, Afghanistan, etc. The attack also aims to show the Arab world that American troops aren’t up to providing security and can be put on the defensive. This will embolden jihadis and give other nations yet another reason to withhold additional troops. All this means America will likely remain pretty much on its own in Iraq and her ability to respond to threats around the world will be negatively impacted. Instead of flypaper for terrorists, Iraq is a tarbaby for America.

This could be the equivalent of the assassination of the Archuduke Franz Ferdinand that sparked World War I — although on national scale, rather than a global one. The probability of civil war — with American troops caught in the middle — just spiked.