Likely Scenarios if Roe is overturned

[cali]

There's lots of speculation, but here is the most likely scenario:
Roe is overturned, throwing abortion laws back to individual states. Some thirty states have laws on the books banning abortions to various degrees. Abortion will likely remain legal in the others. This will further cement the divide between red states and blue states. What can we do? Contact NARAL or Emily's List to find out.

[Journeyman]

1. Why do you say abortion "will likely remain legal". . .

in the individual states that don't ban it? What would stop the federal government from enacting federal statutes outlawing abortion that would override state laws? I'd like to think the federal government would leave the states alone, but after Bush v Gore, I've little to back that belief.

[requiem99]

2. Don't forget medical marijuana.

[regnaD kciN]

3. More to the point...

...a resolutely "pro-life" SCOTUS could, in the decision overturning Roe, also declare that, as a definition with legal precedent, "human life" begins at conception. That means that every murder law on the books would automatically apply to abortion as well, and no state decision ruling otherwise would count.

OTOH, I'm not at all convinced that Bush et. al. would actually appoint jurors that would overturn Roe altogether. Maybe his religious beliefs might trump his political calculations (but I seriously doubt it -- and am sure KKKarl would set him on the right track if they did), but ending abortion is not in the G.O.P.'s interest. First of all, it would lose them a huge issue that they use to keep a hold on the fundie vote. Second, it would mobilize and swell the ranks of those on the left -- if you think abortion is a hot button issue on one side right now, think of what having the right to an abortion taken away would do to stir up the other side.

Republican presidents have been denouncing abortion, and making common cause with the religious right over the issue, since the days of Reagan. Nonetheless, despite having conservative Republicans in the White House for sixteen of those twenty-four years, and having made many SCOTUS appointments over that period, they have never put together the five votes needed to overturn Roe. My suspicion is that what they really want is not so much an end to abortion but a situation where abortion is always on the table as an issue that can be blamed on those awful liberal Democrats -- something that they can promise to end in the indefinite future, but not quite just yet.

[Iris]

4. and would also ban contratceptives like the IUD and even the pill. n/t

[cali]

8. JD, Yours is the best analysis

I've read anywhere. I think you're spot on. They know that their dominance goes out the window if Roe is overturned.

[cali]

5. All I can tell you

is that this is the consensus opinion of the Center for Reproductive Rights, Naral, and other pro-choice groups.

[Journeyman]

6. I hope they're correct, cali. . .

Atrios speculated earlier the newly constituted cabal court may only start with Roe v Wade, that Griswold v CT (the case that established privacy rights for use of contraceptives) may be on the table soon, as well.

[greymattermom]

7. abortio illegal

They would ask for the death penalty for any woman who has an abortion. This is the logical outcome of their thinking.

[Mend]

9. I Remember When It Was Illegal

When I was a medical student, a woman came in with a self-inflicted gunshot wound to her abdomen. Both she and the 8-month fetus survived, but like most of the abortions I saw back then, no woman was worried about the laws....they just didn't want these pregnancies. They used poison, coat hangers, knitting needles, and they all knew they could die from their attempts but did it anyway. Abortion will never end, just safe ones if the red-tards get their way.

[noonwitch]

10. My cousin had an illegal abortion that almost killed her prior to Roe

She had serious problems conceiving children later, although she did eventually have two kids, and she had a hysterectomy at age 35 due to complications from the abortion when she was 18 or so.

If she had been able to seek an abortion by a real doctor in a real clinic or hospital, she wouldn't have almost died from hemorraging after the procedure.