'06 Senate prospects

[nixonwasbetterthanW]

Most pressure, from both sides, will be on the senators up for reelection in '06.

Three Republicans up again in 2006 are from solidly blue states: Santorum (PA), Snowe (ME) and Chafee (RI).

By dumping Santorum and flipping Snowe and Chafee -- or holding their feet to the fire on votes that count -- that would get the Dems plus GOP moderate base up to 48 in the Senate.

I don't know where to place Collins (ME) and Specter (PA), while Hagel (NE), Lugar (IN) and McCain (AZ) remain wildcards. For worst-case purposes, I'm assuming they'll drink the Kool-Aid at least a while longer.

On the flipside, among the red state Dems, the only truly vulnerable one in '06 might be Kent Conrad (ND). But even he has come through in bad years before ('94 and '00). There's something odd about the way the colder prairie people like to split tickets between "values"-centered nationwide nominees and populists from back home. (I believe the Daschle loss is an anomaly -- he's been wearing a big fat RNC bull's eye for years.)

A question about PA: Which is growing fastest (or not receding as quickly): the Alabama portion; Pittsburgh and Philadelphia; or the suburbs?

[SaveElmer]

1. Go after Chaffee!!!

Just like the Democrats went after Connie Morrella in Maryland....attack him based on his support for Republican leaders. Chris Van Hollen was able to take down Morella by campaigning aginst her votes to install Hastert and Delay into power, not her positions on the issues. In a liberal state like Rhode Island this may work.

The only other viable target on that list is Santorum. Unless we come up with a way to counteract the "Gay Marriage" issue (and no I do not think we should abandon our position on this), it is going to be tough.