Voter fraud claims are bull

[DFLer4edu]

Sorry to do that, but I had to get all of your attention. Maybe it is just me who has been off the DU for awhile and out of the country, but everyone is throwing around graphs that show differences between exit polls and "actual results", but I can't for the life of me find one source. I am no conspiracy theorist, but I have always been extremely suspicious of no paper trail and diebold so if this is real I want to see where the hard data is coming from

P.S. Sorry for the title, but other methods of getting everyone's attention weren't working.

On edit: I am looking for state by state results of exit polls verses "actual votes"

[Obviousman]

1. look here

http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/1106-30.htm
i was skeptical at first too. but the more i look at this stuff, the it seems that there was something massive that happened on nov. 2nd that needs to be uncovered

[DFLer4edu]

2. Thank you, I'll take a look

Boy, that worked well.

[DFLer4edu]

8. Nope

This is very interesting, but is not the source of state by state exit polls which people are claiming to be vastly different than the actual vote.

On edit:
This says state exit polling, but doesn't give a source

[BUSHOUT]

27. Look again. You're 100% missing it.

You need to take some responsibility to understand what you're posting about, especially on such an important issue.

Look at the numbers linked to in this story:
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/1106-30.htm

In case you don't see them, here they are:
http://ustogether.org/Florida_Election.htm

You need more than 4 minutes to look at and understand these numbers.

[DFLer4edu]

31. Common dreams says ABC TV exit polls, but

I'm sorry, but you just can't use common dreams as a source. If it is frol ABC can anybody find ABC saying it. As for ustogether, this is just Florida and it looks to be projections, I'll take a look at it, it is hard data, but it doesn't appear to be exit polls as far as I can tell. Not what I asked for, but it is the type of thing I'm interested in.

[BUSHOUT]

44. Can't use Common Dreams? You're on glue man...

First of all, I'm not using common dreams as a source.
The numbers are the important thing.
Here they are in isolation, so you can't complain now about me using Common Dreams as a source:
http://ustogether.org/Florida_Election.htm

Now, regarding this not being "exit polls" like you "asked for", what the FUCK are you talking about?

You said claims of fraud were bull. This is the basis for a claim of fraud. You didn't tell us that any claims other than exit poll-based claims would be dismissed by you.

I'm glad you're interested in this. I look forward to a considerate and thoughtful response to it. So far I haven't seen it from you, but I'll keep my eyes open.

[DFLer4edu]

52. Sorry

but to me these don't look like exit polls (ustogether) they look like projections based on how democratic a county is. And I just put the title there to get peoples attention. I'm not sure what to make of it all. I think the ustogether thing is interesting, I'm going to run over it seriously, but I'd like the exit polls for all the states as you're all claiming that CNN changed theres I want proof.

[BUSHOUT]

56. They're results, not exit polls.

You're being disingenuous with me and I've alerted the moderators to you.

You're either not playing with a full deck or you're purposely disrupting here.

[JohnnyCougar]

63. hey, hey easy...

What we are talking about here is a crime so grand, it would shake the foundation of this very world if exposed. If you want to talk seriously to serious people, you better be able to source every last bit of your argument. That's all he/she is asking for.

I don't know where most of the numbers came from originally, but this link is the most convincing one for me so far:

http://ustogether.org/election04/florida_vote_patt.htm

[Roxy66]

86. DEIBOLD is the vendor on almost all Optic-Scan machines!!!

Look at the vendor column.....DEIBOlD almost all the way

[Roxy66]

84. I posted this on Randi Rhodes web-site

http://ustogether.org/Florida_Election.htm

Hopefully she will see it.

[KC21304]

13. Wouldn't those small counties with optical scanners, the ones

supposedly flipped have the original paper ballots to review ? I don't see anyone doing this with the optical scanner votes which leave a paper trail, so to speak. I voted in central Wisconsin with an optical scanner so I know what they look like. The ballots are thick, almost like cardboard and quite large.

[shelley806]

21. Thank goodness for the heading on this thread or I wouldn't have linked

to your post at Common Dreams. I've downloaded the actual votes by county, the registered Rep and Dems by county, and the type of voting machine by county. I've not had the time yet to fill out the spreadsheet I'm working on, but I noticed again and again, B* leading in the smaller Democratic counties. It looks like someone has already completed what I intended to do, but I have to run an errand and I've not completely read the article. This makes me ill. We have to be able to provide convincing evidence for a recount...demand it if necessary.

I've studied the graphs posted at DU about the differences between exit polls vs actual vote results, and paper vs non paper trail Here is another one posted yesterday, that shows the growth rate for Dems and Reps from 2000 to 2004. The scew is solid for B* and abnormal enough that lostnfound (sig) stated that it indicated machine fraud. Thanks for the link...very convincing what I've read so far.

[DFLer4edu]

25. Thanks for your post

The more I read the more I think it is possible. But someone has got to pin a real source down or this just looks like conspiracy theory to moderates, or for that matter, a lot of liberals. I need numbers. Tell me when you compile your spredsheet.

[requiem99]

3. Lots of info with sources here.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=2615075&mesg_id=2615075&page=

[DFLer4edu]

4. Link doesn't detail source of graphs

[requiem99]

7. AP did exit polls the night of the election, as did other places.

I think that is from AP, but I'm not sure. I didn't make the graph, but I did confirm it with my cached pages of CNNs exit polls which were changed around 1-2am the night of the election to reflect bush wins in the states that 'just didn't match up'.

[DFLer4edu]

19. Can anybody confirm this?

[smiley_glad_hands]

5. Here is some raw data .

Dunno if this what your looking for. If your expecting someone well known, Stephen Hawking or such, to come out and say definitively that voter fraud was specifically done by the W campaign, hang it up. Not yet anyway. As a consumate cynic, I will not pass judgement on what I've seen so far, but I do know that there are alot people out there working their ass off seeking the truth, you should at least be supportive of their efforts.

Anyway here is a link to the raw data that has been used in some of the graphs that you speak of.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=2617461#

Edited for spelling & grammar.

[irancontra]

6. don't buy the spin about 'moral' votes.. it WAS FRAUD.

like 2000(gore), 2002(cleland), 9/11(no footage of pentagon plane), iraq(no wmd), el-kayda(let them escape), patriot act(search & detain "terrists"... total unadulterated CRAP.

[DFLer4edu]

11. Yeah

but I need the hard data

[Misunderestimator]

9. Optical Scan Ballots are themselves the paper trail you're looking for.

[glitch]

22. Only if they are randomly tested against hand counts - otherwise BBV nt

[papau]

23. True - with optical scans it is the summary vote software telecommunication

and the fact that if you steal enough, the paper trail does not get a free audit.

[mbee]

10. Read Common Dreams and you'll see someone just turned the

frauds into the FBI!

[DFLer4edu]

14. I've heard

but I'm still not seeing state data.

[Obviousman]

12. I found it!

http://www.mydd.com/story/2004/11/2/135756/299

[DFLer4edu]

16. I've seen these numbers

but now the question is, where the hell did they get them, as this site doesn't seem to have the power to do exit polling nationwide.

[Obviousman]

18. here is what the national election pool is

ABC, AP, CBS, CNN, Fox, and NBC, have created the National Election Pool to provide tabulated vote counts and exit poll surveys for the 2004 major presidential primaries and the November general election.

These six major news organization, in a joint decision, have appointed Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International as the sole provider of exit polls for the most important political races of 2004. The AP will tally the vote

The exit poll data is available for purchase by TV-affiliates, newspapers, internet sites and other news outlets. The polling data will be delivered through a secure web application directly to subscribers on primary and election days. Political candidates may subscribe as well, but the data is available one week past voting day.
http://www.exit-poll.net/pool.html

So that's why you are having a hard time finding the results because they sell them out. But the numbers on mydd are the ones all the networks saw

[DFLer4edu]

20. Yeah, but

the numbers on mydd are from 1:57 pm, at least the ones someone gave me a link to. Those aren't late enough to fully count. As they say on the sight, the early voters wanted Bush out.

[Obviousman]

26. well,

then if you really want the #s shell out the cash and buy the exit polls yourself

[DFLer4edu]

40. Ah, if I only I had the money

[ParanoidPat]

15. Go away

If you don't even know where to start looking for the source of the (HINT CNN, ABC, AP) media exit polls or the source for (HINT HINT) State and County election results, why should anyone stop what they are doing to take the time to answer your claim of "Bull".

Learn how to use Google and make your case like an adult. :evilgrin:

You are making the claim that it's all bull, now back your claims with facts!

[DFLer4edu]

17. I'm not making the claim it is bull

I'm getting your attention. I have looked at cnn and their numbers are different than yours. I know who does exit polls. I'm not making any case, I'm asking you to make your own. Because right now the country things we got our asses kicked. That stands until you can prove it wrong. I am anxious to see what Nader can unearth, but until then, I would like the source of the numbers.

[in_cog_ni_to]

24. CNN exit polls showed Kerry winning

the presidency. CNN changed their exit polls at 1:00 A.M. Their final exit polls are BOGUS. They made them up when they saw the chimp was hijacking the race.

[DFLer4edu]

28. Show me

[St. Jarvitude]

36. Someone had a post with a screenshot

It might have been EarlG... I didn't bookmark it (stupid me) so I can't find it.

If it matters, I saw the exit poll numbers on CNN before they mysteriously changed them (with no explanation), and they showed Kerry had a several point lead among both male and female voters in Ohio (at least, I didn't bother checking out Florida's numbers on election night).

[Zookeeper]

50. I was watching TV and the internet on election night...

and I remember DUer's observing, in real time, that CNN's exit poll numbers were changing. Someone may have gotten a screen shot. Perhaps you should look in the DU archives.

[in_cog_ni_to]

60. I don't have the screenshots of the original exit polls, but a few DUers

do have them. Maybe you can do a DU search and find them. Trust me. We ALL saw the original polls and then CNN's change in the wee hours of the morning. We were all on here watching the retuRns. We KNOW what we witnessed.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

69. I was on on election night and there is a screen capture in the archives

of CNN altering their exit polls to match the result. I don't know where to find it but I do recall it occurring.

[Obviousman]

34. you're right

i remember seeing the exit polls showing a kerry lead in several key areas in florida and ohio. what i see now doesn't match up

[DFLer4edu]

43. I want you to be right

but I'm a seeing is believing guy, show me

[Obviousman]

51. i found this over at kos

Screen Shots of CNN Exit Polls (Changed) (none / 0)

Try over at DU (democratuniteddotcom)a poster named SoCalDemocrat has both the screen shots of CNN exit polls before and after the "switch" for both FL and OH.

In addition he has the math analysis to prove the 4-6% bump for shrub ONLY on the touchscreens without the paper trail audit. DAMNING EVID.
(if the sample size don't fit - you must acquit.
raver
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/3/04741/7055

it's towards the very bottom of the page. i can't search on du, but ask socaldemocrat for his screen shots

[BUSHOUT]

29. Did you notice how he out-and-out rejected the Florida evidence above?

He came back a few minutes later saying "nope" to another poster in response to this article:
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/1106-30.htm

This poster is not inquisitive or deductive. It's another knee-jerk reaction to fresh fraud evidence.
Just like the rightwing reaction on other forums I'm a part of.

[George_S]

38. Not true.

Anyone who is going to PROVE there was fraud will have to start with source numbers. They could not start in the middled and assume anything. We are talking PROOF here, no guessing.

Maybe he's asking for something like that map of the Florida election that has the stats county by county. I don't know.

And what if this is the man who we asked to help us?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x26421

[BUSHOUT]

59. This incurious specimen is not a professor, I assure you!

[noiretextatique]

78. the maybe he should fo the the florida election site

frankly folks, why are you wasting your time with this person?

[George_S]

33. Why so rude?

And who the hell are you to talk to someone that way who is only asking some questions?

Lighten up. The poster is trying the help.

[DFLer4edu]

37. Thank you

That is what this is about after all. The need to ask questions. When people say that people who want to audit are just sore losers, they actually are full of bull. There has to be a way to audit and recount.

[George_S]

42. If you visit the sites,

There may be links to the source numbers. Most of us are on the receiving end and are not involved in the calculations.

And we're all a little edgy. Understandable.

[DFLer4edu]

46. Here is the thing

I think that we need to find out whether this is real or just a hope, if it is real we take the hachet to them. If it isn't real we need to move on, push for paper ballots, but look ahead to 2006. I want this to be as real as the next person, but if it isn't, we've got to start building for 06.

[George_S]

47. Well, you'll have to talk to the ones crunching the numbers about that

And think they know what they are doing. Not matter what, it looks bad and makes Bush look bad, so it's good.

[BUSHOUT]

58. This poster is being disingenuous. Maybe that's why "so rude".

[ParanoidPat]

61. For someone "trying to help".......

.......Posting that all we are doing to expose the fraud that has already been found, not to mention what the other evidence points to, is nothing more than "bull" is hardly "helpful".

[BUSHOUT]

30. SO WHAT IS YOUR TAKE ON THESE NUMBERS???

http://ustogether.org/Florida_Election.htm
???

If you have trouble understandign them, they're explained here:

http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/1106-30.htm

but I hope you will take the time to understand them. There's even a key to explain the columns at the bottom of the number table.

[Deja Q]

32. Why? Just knowing that a banking company that

atypically and audaciously refused to put in a paper trail (and all banks they support would DEMAND paper trails and accounting audits and such)... Seems like the dollar is more valuable than a vote... That alone is highly suspicious; the Diebold exec's own comments don't even need to be put into play.

Do you think they'll let you see the real data? Or source code? Even then there is reasonable doubt.

Computers are a very BAD idea for voting, I don't care if it's 3004 and Professor Farnsworth created the ideal and most accurate voting machine.

[DFLer4edu]

35. I'm completely with you, Diebold scares the hell out of me

Diebold scares the hell out of me and before the elections I was saying they could steel the elections. But unfortunatly that isn't enough to convince the American people.

[George_S]

45. Are you going to verify the results?

Or are you just curious?

[DFLer4edu]

48. I want a firm source

so if I talk to people about it outside of the DU I don't sound like a nut.
On edit: Please realize that I'm not saying this is a nutso theory, only that you need a good source to not look like a nut when talking to a moderate. And as practical matter, a good source is always important.

[George_S]

49. You don't have to say there is proof of fraud...

... because there isn't yet. But it is suspicious and worth looking in to. That's enough for now.

[DFLer4edu]

55. For me, but not for pitching the case to a moderate

[George_S]

57. Mm, maybe ParanoidPat was right.

My bad.

[ParanoidPat]

62. It isn't "moderates" that we need to convince.......

.......it's the COURTS. :evilgrin:

You're just way too obvious! :)

[Name removed]

64. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[DFLer4edu]

73. Exactly the courts are moderate to conservative

We went through 8 years of Reagan, 4 of Bush, 8 Clinton, 4 Bush, the courts are moderate to conservative to say the least.

[GreenPartyVoter]

39. We'll get the evidence compiled soon enough.

--------------------------------------------------------------------
FIGHT! Take this country back one town and state at a time!
http://www.geocities.com/greenpartyvoter/electionreform.htm

[DFLer4edu]

41. Again, site doesn't give source

Although the site does look interesting, again no source

[DFLer4edu]

53. It is 12:30 my time so I'm heading to bed

I have seen a lot of intersting stuff which I will fully examin tomorrow. However, as of yet, no one seems to have the source of these exit polls which are different from what CNN is showing. I hope you're right, but you've got to show me the numbers.

[Kathy in Cambridge]

65. Why do we have to show YOU the numbers?

Google is your friend, and get a star and search on DU.

[Kurovski]

54. We are told information will be released beggining tommorow

--slowly. You might want to bookmark this site and check up on it daily.

If you toss 10-20 bucks their way it could help speed things up.

[Pobeka]

66. AAAUUUUGGGHHHH. I didn't bookmark the thread.

The original source came from Faun Otter (someone with search capability can find it in a flash).

There was an analysis of "raw exit" polls that were released (but they were not all that early in the day) -- and those raw exit polls accurately predicted the outcome of the election in states whose election machinary was largely "paper" oriented (i.e. auditable). Those raw exit polls did not predict the outcome so well in "electronic balloting" states so well (and hence the charts from TIA).

And despite what the media has been saying with their noise machine for the past 4 days, exit polls have been very accurate at predicting the outcome of elections for many, many decades. Someone will be sure to tell you the exit polls from FL 2000 didn't work, but we all know the problems in FL, between butterfly ballots, punch cards, etc.

There is also evidence that one of CNN's exit polls, which had something like 1980 samples and was a few points in Kerry's favor, dramatically swung like 5 points giving Bush a few point lead. The swing came about after only 50 more samples were added to the poll.

The evidence is there to show the "final" exit polls may well have been "cooked" to match the final "official" tallies. This is why the focus is on the "raw" exit polls, because if they predicted the outcome in paper balloting states, then why the heck do they not predict the outcome in electronic balloting states?

Please read that previous paragraph again. It is the crux of the issue which has us smelling vote fraud at a massive scale.

[DFLer4edu]

67. Again, you didn't give anything that shows your claims

[Kathy in Cambridge]

68. Again, you're too lazy to look up the info on google

I would say you're here to stir the pot. I hit alert.

[Joe Chi Minh]

71. Strumming lips...

[mountebank]

70. Your line of questioning is wearing thin.

You have your answer, buddy. The exit poll data was collected by a consortium of news agencies and SOLD to other news outlets and generally kept under wraps. These results are usually LEAKED during Election Day. Several sets of results appeared on the internet on November 2 (on Slate.com, Wonkette.com, and myDD.com – I understand these are not PRIMARY sources) and corroborated one another.

Now it seems that YOU AND I cannot get our hands on the raw data from these exit polls YET. Still, I think it is now, with the information you have, up to you to discredit the numbers that were posted on the web sites listed above. There is not a good reason, in my opinion, to believe that they aren’t the real numbers.

You’re posting this same question in several threads. I was willing to believe that you are a curious and questioning fellow. We are all beginning to believe otherwise. We are all involved in doing our own research and don’t have time for you anymore.

Tell us why you think the leaked exit poll results were out-and-out fabrications. OR SHUT UP.

[WHAT]

72. turn-off the television...

eom.

[DFLer4edu]

75. Ironically, I have turned off the TV in a manner of speaking

Ironically, I haven't watched an American news channel in over two months. I'm an exchange student in Europe. I guess you could say I've stopped getting my news from the American TV news media. Not that I watched the news on TV anyway, the paper and the Internet are my sources, but still, your comment is ironic.

[DFLer4edu]

74. MY RESPONSE

I think I've read everything that has been posted in this thread. The election is starting to smell fishy. Two links caught my interest the most.

http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/1106-30.htm

http://ustogether.org/Florida_Election.htm
The first was a very good article that raises the red flag. The second compares projected results based off former democratic verses Republican voter registration with the "actual results." What I have not found out and am still looking for is a source for the graphs appearing on the main page comparing exit polls with the "actual results." If anyone can give me the source, I'd be thrilled. This election is looking fishy, especially considering these graphs, but to firmly believe them, I want to have a source for them.
I want to thank everyone for posting their links, which although not exactly what I was looking for, were helpful. However, I was disturbed by how many people attacked me for asking for the source of the the graphs on the exit polls. The point is to ask questions. That is what needs to be done. I'd like to see an audit of the results. I realize everyone is on edge, but attacking me for asking questions is exactly what the Republicans would do if this went mainstream and voter fraud was proved. The right to ask questions is fundamental to democracy. Besides, if you find me inquisitive, try the courts.
Regardless of how this all turns out and how our opinions all end up as to whether there was fraud or not, I think we can all say that we need to fight for paper trails and standard audits of those paper trails.

[m berst]

76. Thank God we convinced DFLer4edu

At this rate we should have the word out to the majority of people in the country in 27 years, 11 months, 3 days, 13 hours and 23 minutes.

(kidding)

DFLer4edu - thanks for your skepticism and for holding people's feet to the fire. The question is this - is there sufficient evidence (circumstantial, of course) to warrant calling for a complete investigation of this election?

I say yes, there certainly is. That isn't the same as pushing a particular theory, it has nothing to do with Kerry or Democratic party partisanship, and doesn't require "proof" of anythimg other than that there is reasonable cause for suspicion.

On second thought I DO have a theory -

"A democracy is dead when there is a lack of confidence in the integrity of elections. When there is any doubt, it is essential that there be a full investigation to restore the people's confidence in their democracy."

That is my tinfoil hat conspiracy theory.

on edit- spelling error

[DFLer4edu]

77. I love your quote

"A democracy is dead when there is a lack of confidence in the integrity of elections. When there is any doubt, it is essential that there be a full investigation to restore the people's confidence in their democracy."

[noiretextatique]

79. you got those links early on in this thread

glad you finally looked at them.

[Kellis]

80. very strange that

officials who know the ins and outs of politics are alerting the FBI because they are so sure of voter fraud and yet this person is questioning the sorces themselves......

[Chili]

81. I know people from one drawer don't always go to another...

I posted this in the Presidential drawer... see the links on the page, I tried to gather everything together, but I may have missed something...

http://shadowbox.i8.com/stolen.htm

Here are the CNN altered exit poll numbers (screenshots):

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x19715

I'm still looking for the graph juxtaposing the 2 CNN exit poll results that somebody took screenshots of... I saw it just last night, dammit.

Apologies if these are dupes of what others have said above, I may have missed some posts flipping back and forth between screens.

[DFLer4edu]

87. Thanks

The first link looks to have a wealth of info and the second one is exactly the type of thing I'me looking for.

[Chili]

82. found it - SoCalDemocrat's original post

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=1290765

[ElsewheresDaughter]

83. try here .."National Election Pool">>exit polls

http://www.exit-poll.net

Exit Polls From Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International:
The Exclusive Source for Election Day Information
The major news organizations have hired Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International to conduct the official exit polls for all 50 states and the District of Columbia for the 2004 elections.

We offer exit poll data that was previously provided by Voter News Service (VNS).


Exit Polls Provide Rich Content for News Outlets

[truhavoc]

85. If you think the voter fraud claims are NOT bulll

Then check out this thread:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=2631016&mesg_id=2631016

And get active...do something about it.