Florida results - some thoughts

[the_outsider]

When the results came out on Tuesday, it was hard to believe the 5% margin in Florida keeping in mind the exit poll and also the close pre-election polls. So I spent some time tonight looking at Florida data. I thought I would share a few interesting points. I apologize if these have already been discussed here. I have not felt like reading DU much over the last few days. Actually I have not felt like doing anything.

(all numbers are close approximations)

Nationally * gained 17% more votes and Kerry gained about 10% more than what Gore got. In Florida, the percentage gains are exactly double of the national gains. Kerry gained 21% more votes than what Gore got in Florida in 2000 and * got 34% more votes.

Two things happened here. 1) the increase in voter turnout in Florida was twice the national average increase. 2) However, the relative gains of two parties in Florida are exactly the same as the national average. It seems to support the oft-quoted theory that Florida is an accurate minuscule representation of the national trend.

Assuming we have statistically insignificant crossover from 2000 voters, (I cannot believe a whole lot of Gore voters went for * this time) the distribution of new Florida voters in 2004 is eerily identical to the national distribution of new voters. This is clearly in contrary to the popular assumption that greater the turnout, the better it is for us. For two completely different levels, (12-13% national turnout increase and 25% turnout increase in Florida), new voters broke down almost identically in favor of them. This is troubling.

If we look at different counties within Florida, however, there are some unusual data. Percentage wise, 's gains across counties are very uneven whereas Kerry gained a lot more evenly.

In 45/67 counties, * gained more than his stage average of 34%. In 25 counties, he had >40% gain ! In 10 counties, he had > 50% gains !! Most of these counties are very small with population in tens of thousands. These large gains were absolutely critical because he has the smallest gain in the largest county - Miami-Dade. Large % gains in a lot of small counties more than offset Kerry's gains in cities.

Kerry's gains are more even across the mean. He has >21% (his mean) in only 25 counties. In only 7 counties, he had > 34% (*'s mean gain). Also Kerry gained less than his mean (21%) in all 3 counties that mattered - Miami-Dade, Breward and Palm Beach. He won only 11/16 counties Gore won in 2000.

I have not looked at the national data in detail yet. But I have a feeling that this Florida pattern will be repeated in other states as well. Kerry's significant but could-have-been-better gains in large counties (cities) will be defeated by *'s small gains (small in absolute numbers, but huge % wise) in a lot of small counties.

I do not know how to explain the large % gains in small counties. Most probably it was a result of church-driven GOTV efforts. Interestingly in Florida at least, most of these small counties where * gained huge, Kerry's gains were marginal. In some counties, he even lost some votes.These large % gains in very small counties look definitely odd and we should investigate further.

I am not sure if the Florida counties showing the largest % gains for * were hit by hurricanes. I will try to find out.

I have built a database combining county wise 2000 results, 2004 results, population etc. for Florida and will build the tables for other states as well and I can run complex SQL queries on it. Let me know if you guys would be interested in any specific analysis.