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POSTED AT DEMOCRATIC UNDERGROUND
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=2625708#2626012BASED ON EXIT POLLS, THE PROBABILITY KERRY WOULD LOSE OH AND FL = 0.15%
That's less than 1/6 of one percent!
To put it another way, the chances are 1 out of 667 that Bush would win BOTH states.
Assuming a 2% MoE for the exit polls (they are much more accurate than standard polls), the probabilities are:
Ohio Exit Poll:
Kerry 52 - Bush 48
Prob (Kerry wins OH)= 97.7%
Florida Exit Poll:
Kerry 51 - Bush 48
Prob (Kerry wins FL)= 93.5%
Then
Prob (Kerry loses FL and OH) =0.15% = (1-.977)*(1-.935)
Prob(Kerry wins OH or FL or Both)= 99.85% = 1 -.15%
How did I calculate the probs?
Simple. Feed the data into the Excel Normal Distribution function:
Since the MoE = .02, the Standard Deviation is .02/1.96 = .01
Prob (Kerry wins OH)= NORMDIST(0.52,0.5,0.01,TRUE) = 97.7%
Prob (Kerry wins FL)= NORMDIST(51/99,0.5,0.01,TRUE) = 93.5%
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Here is the reason why they covered up the exist polls
http://www.truthout.org/docs_03/voting.shtml#part1The story you are about to read is in this writer's view the biggest political scandal in American history, if not global history. And it is being broken today here in New Zealand.
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This explains the need for election to be close
http://www.commongroundcommonsense.org/index.php?showtopic=53Explanation of rigging an election
As John Hopkins University and Bev Harris have pointed out repeatedly in their first field studies; I have seen the duplicitous nature of just how easy it is to rig elections using the G.E.M.S system.
GEMS central tabulator is nothing more than an ATM machine on your home computer, with all the escape routes and backdoors. There are two columns for votes, one for the plus side and one for the negative. You can freely change the opposite column at any time you like, using MS Access. Doing this means you can add or subtract however many votes you want, within the GEMS system's rules.
What this means is that the opposing rule of positive, must turn out negative. If you take away 5000 votes from one side, reversing his percentage that exact same number will be applied to the other guy's total. It can not work any other way.
In order for the fraud to be workable, it must always come within the same vote total score GEMS tabulates. So yes, it does count every vote there is always. They never lied here. But, in order to keep the total accurate, they can freely remove or add the same number of votes, making it seem like nothing happened, to the other side. Thus the other candidate always wins. Ta daa.
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The actual voting results of paper ballot versus electronic, off by huge incremental margins of votes
Posted here at DU
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=1333866&mesg_id=1333866&page=