18 Battleground State Exit Polls: Prob Kerry>50%: 99.998% ( he got 48.87%)

[TruthIsAll]

MORE CIRCUMSTANTIAL PROOF OF FRAUD:

The Exit Poll 18 state average: 
Kerry 51.53%-Bush 47.53%(4% Kerry margin)

The actual average vote: 
Bush 50.20%-Kerry 48.87% (1.33% Bush margin)

That was a 5.33% net change in Bush's favor, assuming equal
state weighting.Bush beat tremendous odds in winning the
popular vote margin based on 18 exit polls (below)

Of the 18 states, only ONE (MO) saw a Kerry vote pickup (of
1%)
Six (6) showed no change (the exit polls were precisely
correct)
Eleven (11) showed a Bush pickup, ranging from 1 to 18%.


		Exit Poll 2pm	Actual Results			
	ST	Kerry	Bush	Diff	Kerry	Bush	Diff	BushGain		
1	AZ	45	55	-10	45	55	-10	0		
2	LA	43	56	-13	42	57	-15	2		
3	MI	51	48	3	51	48	3	0		
4	IA	49	49	0	49	50	-1	1		
5	NM	50	49	1	50	50	0	1		
6	ME	53	45	8	53	45	8	0		
7	NV	48	51	-3	48	51	-3	0		
8	AR	45	54	-9	45	54	-9	0		
9	MO 	46	54	-8	46	53	-7	-1		
10	IL	55	44	11	55	44	11	0		
11	WI	52	48	4	50	49	1	3		
12	PA	60	40	20	51	49	2	18		
13	OH	52	48	4	49	51	-2	6		
14	FL	51	48	3	47	52	-5	8		
15	MN	58	40	18	51	48	3	15		
16	NH	57	41	16	50	49	1	15		
17	NC	49	51	-2	43	56	-13	11		
18	CO	48	51	-3	46	52	-6	3		
										
average	       51.53	47.53	4.00	48.87	50.20	-1.33	5.33		
										
Prob of Kerry vote majority: 99.9982%								
Assume a 3% Margin of Error (MOE):								
n (sample size) for 18 polls @1000 exit voters/poll =
18000								
Then the margin of error
MoE=1.96/(2*sqrt(n))								
Std=.5/sqrt(n)								

MoE=	0.0073							
Std=	0.0037								

Plugging into the normal distribution function:

Probability =NORMDIST(0.5153,0.5,0.0037,TRUE)= 99.9982%

 

 
 

[Randi_Listener]

1. Keep fucking crunching

We need data, stats, and information for the media to pick up on this motherfucker. We need to keep digging for the turd.

[Hubert Flottz]

2. Thanks!

Keep right on pumping out the truth! Hope is still alive here, thanks to you DUers!

[0rganism]

3. What turnout model are you using now?

Just curious, cos it seems like the bush excuse for winning this time is out-hustling the Democratis in rural counties.

[AlexHamilton]

4. We Need Data...

We also need a ton of money to offer up as a reward for anyone who would come forward with evidence that there was voting fraud. Anyone want to start a collection? I bet the money used as a reward would go further than money dumped into legal challenges.

Alex
Impeachment by the People

[KC21304]

5. Do you have the 4 o'clock exit poll numbers ?

Some of those races tightened up as the day went on I believe.

[idiosyncratic]

6. Just curious . . .

"Eleven (11) showed a Bush pickup, ranging from 1 to 18%."

Was that in the States with the bad, discriminatory amendment on the ballot?

[PATRICK]

7. Need to correlate

to the BBV map and ability to recount, Senate races where a new discrepancy(Illinois) would be very red flag, not to mention states controlled by Dems, useless electoral point or presumed Bush wins.

the latter, presumed assured results don't matter as much except under the general cover of all such BBV states in racking up the plurality undercover. In that case all states, not just battleground, should be examined. I find the NH discrepancy particularly damning for the "values" argument. Where did all the Bible nuts come from in Kerry territory?

Thanks Ralph Nader for the duh! wake up.

Are the new exit polls rigorously accurate? Or were they bumped a bit to account discrepancies of 2002(and map that in correlation). other years exit polls too and the ground rules of their methodologies.

In effect we need some fast deep and far reaching analysis. This stuff is shaving ice off the top of the iceberg. Also there was other stuff besides BBV going on. Anybody got a supercomputer for an hour?

man, are we on our own or what? Is there ANYONE from the campaign helping? Any loose disgruntled lawyers? What is the burden of proof or proportion in the case of spoiled elections, fraud incidents, suspicion of criminality, to reverse ANY election? I don't see why in theory the Presidency should be above the quantitative or principals of legitimized elections. Technical sealings that prevent reasonable redress should be appealed to the SCOTUS(the bastards).

The GD poorly researched(BBV), clueless ICC and other world bodies needs to refine their weak standards. The "strongest democracy" in the world don't exist fellows. No more seals of approval and muzzlement needed.

Yeah, a whistleblower in a fit of American patriotism will confess. Bush will bring himself down. Enough fraud will be uncovered to reverse public attitude into frothing street dissent. Edwards or some advocacy sleepwalkers will launch a gutsy massive lawsuit.

People are dying right now for the Monkey's business. Any preferred miracle?

The GD f-ing DNC.

[Spiffarino]

8. Dammit, Truthisall...

...you friggin' rock my world!!!

Here's to ya, friend :toast:

[barackmyworld]

9. stats can't fix experimental problems though

I understand the stats (it's probably gonna be my minor), but the probability means nothing if it's not a random sample. Have there been people who have studied who votes and different times during the day? I have heard (not sure if it's true) that the unemployed, young people who are at school not working, etc vote earlier in the day.

p.s. please don't call me a freeper, I will do number crunching if you guys need it for anything, but stat tests can't be used on any data!

[Spiffarino]

11. My understanding is

...that the data were collected throughout the day. Is this correct, oh DU gurus? If so, the sample should be a good one.

[TruthIsAll]

14. Random sample? It's an EXIT POLL. They are ACCURATE. Period.

tia

[Dancing_Dave]

10. Not only that

But this years exit polls were generally correct EXCEPT in the many places where fraud-prone voting machines and tabulation were being used.

Blackboxvoting.org is using some of the exit polls as "Red Flags" and filing a bunch of FOIA requests for tech info that may show what went wrong. I sure hope they get what they need!

[Robert Oak]

13. exactly

history of the exit polls, taken through x times during day until close, for every presidential election since 1968 (when it appears
they started).

then all exit polls, per precinct and then correlation to determine
if there is an error only with a certain type of voting machine...
against the exit polls, raw data, from close of polls values.

Not the "corrected" exit polls, the raw polls.

if there is an error, not a consistent error in general across
all methodologies, but an error here, then something is up.

Side note but I'm now hearing exit polls are useless due to the last
2 Elections...

and I am shaking my head for we know the election was stolen in 2000
strong proof the exit polls were right.

and instead of acknowledging that, if all who reported how they voted
actually had their vote count, Gore would have won.

so, now the media claims the exit polls were inaccurate versus
examine this.

Venezuela can examine this, but not the US. I see.

[althecat]

12. We need the data for the other 32 states...

Thanks TIA..

[TruthIsAll]

15. Aw, come on. These are the 18 that count.

One-sided states like Idaho and Mass. would be overkill.

[Omnibus]

16. We do need the data from all states.

What if Bush further inflated his popular vote totals by expanding his margins in red states, or by shrinking his margin in blue states with BBV?

Besides, if we don't have data for ALL 50 states, people will say we're cherry-picking data, picking the best of the auditable states and the worst of the BBV.

[althecat]

17. I am most concerned about the cherry picking concern...

Also I really am curious. I am pissed off severely that the poll data was changed.. and the real data ought to be published somewhere.