AFL-CIO already running anti-Bush ads in Ohio

[ShaneGR]

No President has been elected WITHOUT winning Ohio for over 80 years now. Not one. The AFL-CIO, a friend to the working men of women of our country, knows this. They have vowed to spend the money it takes to defeat him. And they are ALREADY running ads in Ohio! Today they began running an ad critical of Bush's attempt to cut overtime pay for millions of working Americans. I love it!

Tonight I've seen the ads on both a local affiliate and CNN.

[poskonig]

1. Losing Ohio will be fatal to the GOP

and they know it.

[goobergunch]

2. Furthermore, no Republican has EVER been elected President w/out OH

AFL-CIO, :loveya:. If we win Ohio, we have probably won the election.

[Sequoia]

3. "Do a little dance,

make a little love, get down tonight". You go OHIO! I know lots of Ohioans who came to live in the Golden State and I've got to say they are some of the best people around.

[hang a left]

4. where do we donate to help them out

let's keep those commercials coming.

[tedoll78]

5. It's my opinion..

that we should go after Ohio more than we would Florida. The union presence, combined with turnout in cities, could make it ours.

[cthrumatrix]

6. never before have we had the "issue" of electronic voting ....scary

we can't leave anything to chance whith these thugs and voting

[TheBigGuy]

7. they should be running those ads in Pennsylvanina and WVA

I think Ohio is still pretty iffy for the Democrats while they have a solid shot at holding PA and picking up WVA.

The problem with Ohio is that while the Lake Eirie coast and inland areas like Akron and the Mahoning Valley are pretty good for th Democrats Western Ohio and esp. Southewestern and Central Ohio is very solid GOP.

PA is, I think, more competitive for the Democrats and maybe a better investment for them for TV ads.

[tedoll78]

8. I have a counter-strategy.

Demoralize core GOP supporters.

Run advertisements in GOP-strong areas flaunting how "liberal" Bush has been. Appointing gays, increasing non-military spending by >20%, praising the affirmative action ruling.. if we can get just 3 or 4% of the GOP vote to go Libertarian or sit at home, our chances jump.

[ShaneGR]

12. Uhhh, I have a point about your comments

Ohio is about the cities. If the turnout in the cities is big than the Dem wins. While the Repubs have been strong in the last two elections, it is mostly because of poor turnout in the cities.

Did you know every major city in Ohio has a Democratic Mayor and a majority Democratic city council now?

Cleveland
Colombus
Cincinnatti
Toledo
Akron
Youngstown
Dayton

All Dem

[TheBigGuy]

17. Im more intrerested in metro area voting trends.

The GOP has a big voting advantage in the suburbs...in southwest and central Ohio...Cincy, Dayton, and Cols, the GOP dominates. This overwhelms Democratic turnouts in the citys..and is why Cincy and Dayton now have GOP Congressmen.

In northern Ohio there is still some strong Democratic support in suburbia, which is why Marcy Kaptur and Kucinich are still able to win while having districts that include suburban areas (like Parma in Cleveland and Toledos suburbs).

The old trend is that the Dems had to win big in the Toledo/Cleveland/Akron/Youngstown areas...in the city snd suburbs, and then come real close in the other parts of ths state...not actually win but pile up enough votes to flip the election to the Dem side.

Another part of the state that the Dems have to cary is the appalachian part of the state...places like Vern Rifes old home district of Wellstone and Jackson, Porstmouth & Ironton, Steubenville, etc....and I think the Dems can capture that part of the state.

The problem is the increasing GOP hold on the Cincy/Dayton/Springfield area combined with the lock on the rural western/central Ohio countys,.

[ShaneGR]

19. My answers

Your comments and my responses:

The GOP has a big voting advantage in the suburbs...in southwest and central Ohio...Cincy, Dayton, and Cols, the GOP dominates. This overwhelms Democratic turnouts in the citys..and is why Cincy and Dayton now have GOP Congressmen.

Actually, those cities have GOP Congressmen because Ohio has been gerrymandered all to hell by the GOP. Take a look at the district map. It's a friggin joke.

In northern Ohio there is still some strong Democratic support in suburbia, which is why Marcy Kaptur and Kucinich are still able to win while having districts that include suburban areas (like Parma in Cleveland and Toledos suburbs).

Lakewood is Kucinich's district. Lakewood is NOT suburbia. More like apartmentville, and pretty urban. With a pretty substantial gay population too. As for Kaptur's district, I've never been there but I've heard it is similar.

The old trend is that the Dems had to win big in the Toledo/Cleveland/Akron/Youngstown areas...in the city snd suburbs, and then come real close in the other parts of ths state...not actually win but pile up enough votes to flip the election to the Dem side.

This is correct. The problem is that to overcome this, turnout in the cities has to increase at least 5%. Especially Franklin County (Colombus)

Another part of the state that the Dems have to cary is the appalachian part of the state...places like Vern Rifes old home district of Wellstone and Jackson, Porstmouth & Ironton, Steubenville, etc....and I think the Dems can capture that part of the state.

No offense, but this is patently false. No one lives out there anymore. The only large population center is Marietta and Athens (Which neighbors it) and it votes solidly Dem because it's a University Town. Ohio is won and lost on the city vote now. Especially if you're a Dem running statewide.

The problem is the increasing GOP hold on the Cincy/Dayton/Springfield area combined with the lock on the rural western/central Ohio countys.

Cincy, Dayton, and Springfield have always trended to R's. Except for John Glenn. Once again, if turnout is above 60% in the cities than the GOP has no chance in hell of carrying this state. Especially with all of NE Ohio voting solidly Democratic now. Focus on Cleveland, Colombus, Youngtown, and innercity Cincinatti and you win. Start driving around rural nowhere and you're screwed.

[TheBigGuy]

23. I disagree w. you re Cincy and gerrymandering...and Kaptur.

Cincy has a very compact urban congressional district which should go Democratic, but the Democrats can't win it.

Daytons Congressional district was gerrymandered to pick up some suburban areas and rural Republican areas too. But it was going to have to be redistricted anyway to account for lost population, and that redistricting would have to pick up rural and suburba Republican voters.

A more obvious case of gerrymandering is the split of Franklin County (Cols) into two Congressional districts and then extending those districts well into rural Republican areas.

Marcy Kapturs district comprises all of Lucas County,which has some fairly typical postwar suburbia as well as the old part of Toledo.....

Dayton and Springfield have went Democratic, but the Democrats have become weaker and weaker with every election cycle, esp. in Dayton and its suburbs. The Democrats are pretty much marginalized into holding maybe one or two countywide seats and controlling the CIty of Dayton, which is itself iffy as the GOP held the mayor seat until recently.

I think the Democrats could really do well in Columbus/Franklin County, tho, given the nature of the socioeconomics and demographics of that place. Maybe enough to swing statewide races to the Democratic candidate.

[jiacinto]

27. Except for the 6th

I think the precincts in Strickland's district underperformed against Gore. Those areas should also be focused on.

[graham67]

20. The Upper Ohio Valley...

will typically vote Democratic. We didn't particularly like Al Gore (he was the whipping boy for lack of action re: foreign steel dumping) but we voted for him because he was the Dem candidate. The only thing that really disturbs me right now is that so many people aren't engaged in the process. I'd guess there's a huge percentage who don't even know who Howard Dean is (or Dennis Kucinich, Edwards, Moseley Braun). The unions will help with that...there's a rally planned for the 13th of this month.

edited for clarity

[ShaneGR]

22. Yup

Your area is so Dem it gave Ryan (Who is an EXCELLENT rep for the area) 51%, Trafficant 15%, and the Repug (Ann-Wohmer Barfawoman) 34%.
As a Dem, I love you. Now if we can get the word out on Arshinkoff in Summit County, Ryan will carry his district with 70% in 04.

[jiacinto]

9. JFK won without Ohio

Nixon carried it then 53-46.

[wuushew]

10. Also the current President Al Gore won without Ohio

Ohio is going red, prove me wrong.

[ButterflyBlood]

14. Gore only lost the state by 4 points

1 month after he conceded it and quit running ads there. it is definately in play.

[ShaneGR]

24. Actually, 3%

Rounded down. I think it was like 3.7%....

Gore's campaign ran the worst campaign ever. He left Ohio almost a month before. He ignored WV, KY, and his own friggin home state of Tennessee.

[TheBigGuy]

26. bet u even money Ohio goes for Bush in 2004.

I just am not conviced that the Dems can win here statewide.

[TheBigGuy]

11. JFK won in a stolen election.

It is sort of tough to say this as I am Democrat and JFK was one of the great political legends of the Democrats.

But Mike Royko, in his book on Richard J Daley, "Boss", makes a pretty good case that the Daley machine stole the election in Illinois of JFK via vote rigging in Chicago and Cook County. The Illinois win gave JFK the necessary electoral votes to win against Nixon.

[wuushew]

15. WRONG!!!!!!!!! the popular vote was disputed not the electoral

go to this site and change Illinois to Nixon, it makes no difference

http://www.grayraven.com/ec/

[TheBigGuy]

18. So it does...

thanks for pointing that out. That was a good link.

[Yupster]

16. You would have to switch Texas too

for Nixon to win. Of course Landslide Lyndon had pulled plenty of shenanigans down there too.

[jiacinto]

25. That is the biggest myth propogated by the GOP

Even if JFK had lost IL to Nixon he still would have won the electoral college.

[ikojo]

13. Anti shrub pro overtime ads

also ran on the 6:00PM news in St Louis!!! So thrilled to see them finally doing something on this issue! I mean something all people, union and non union, will see. I talk about this issue at work but I am not sure my co-workers believe me!

[shirlden]

21. I plan on going door to door in my

precinct which is smack in the middle of Columbus. It is a very strong Dem precinct ......IF WE CAN GET THE VOTERS TO THE POLLS. Sorry about the caps....but we really have to scream this message. We can win Ohio if......so get on your walking shoes. My sister and husband are going to do the same thing in Chagrin Falls. A few days before this election, if all Duers would turn off their computers, and hit the street...we could make a major difference. The old fashioned way......door to door
.

:bounce:

[Lefty48197]

28. If we win Ohio in 2004, then we win the entire election

Just like Florida, either one will put us back into the WH where we belong.
It's fascinating that we are actually talking about winning Ohio. It wasn't even considered to be within striking distance in 2000.
I guarantee you that this strikes fear into the hearts of Dumbyah's campaign staff. Ohio just might single-handedly fire Shrubyah. Almost nobody expected Ohio to even be in play for us, until recently.
I just heard that 15% of Ohio's manufacturing jobs have left since Dumbyah rode into town.
Apparently it's those lost jobs that have the Buckeyes up in arms. If we want to win Ohio, then we should spend lots and lots of time talking about those lost jobs.

BUSH + HASTERT = UNEMPLOYED OHIOANS

Oh yeah, Kentucky and West Virginia don't like it when Ohio's economy tanks either. Oh, and another thing, let's start tying the Republican Congress to Dumbyah's crashing approval ratings.