Messages of Doom, Messages of Hope...

[Solon]

Ever since the reselection of *, I have been seeing messages of Doom and Gloom and while I understand the pessimism, there are Bigger issues ahead. I will be honest, I voted for John Kerry because I believed he was our best hope to get us through this time, but I certainly did not expect him solve many of the problems facing us in the imminent future.

Simply put, I believe the most pertenant problems will be threefold, increased Government intrusion in our lives, in much more direct ways than ever before. Peak Oil and Natural Gas, this I view as a more immediate problem, we already peaked Natural Gas, and Oil prices countinue to rise. Hell, this past winter we almost ran out of Natural Gas in the Northeast for electrical generation. This winter, is it going to be nationwide next? Its not going to get better, more likely worse. And what about the summer months of 2005, what's going to power your air conditioning during peak times? We are switching over to natural gas plants for electrical generation at the worst possible time in history. There is simply not enough of it to keep us warm or powered for long.

Oil is also going to be a problem, but perhaps not for a couple of years. The problem here is the Government's response to this, I would venture to say that one of two things will happen, either * avoids the draft like the plague and hires PMCs to do the dirty work, which our government can't afford anyways, or he initiates the draft. I would not doubt that unrest will occur if the draft is reinstated, and the past protests against this war will pale besides what is to come. This will bring about more restrictions on our civil liberties and the creeping fascism we all feared will come to pass.

The next problem is economic, I predict that our economy will collapse no later than 2007, if * doesn't accelerate it further. The problem is that we will have a net energy loss across the board, one that will make the NE blackout last year seem like child's play. That was a preview of what could come. While it was triggered by bad infrastructure and a falling branch, our electrical grid has a balance to it that CANNOT be disturbed, like it was by that branch. For every light bulb you turn on, the power plants have to kick up that amount of juice. What would happen if one of the Natural Gas generators runs out of fuel, with no backup because of no more fuel? A cascade failure will occur, and an entire region of the Continent is out of power. Our infrastructure has not improved one iota since last year and that is a HUGE problem.

What would happen in this scenario, well, no power equals no economic activity, possibly for weeks on end. With an already shaky economy that could spell disaster for us. The biggest thing is that moving to Canada wouldn't help much, I said Continent not Country.

Now one thing I wanted to touch upon is the Federal Government's response to this type of crisis. At first, especially in regards to Natural Gas shortages, little or nothing will be done at the Federal level. Kerry, if he was elected, might have started some initiatives once in office to increase the survivability rate of those at most risk, the Elderly and Children. * will do little to nothing on this issue, and will leave it up to nearly bankrupt states and local governments to handle. Once the draft is started, protests, sit-ins and civil disobedience movements will be suppressed brutally. Bush will try to secure as much oil as possible in Iraq before barrel prices rise to the 100 dollar range. This cannot be disrupted, for not only does it ensure that his business partners get the payback coming to them, but so the Federal Government can use said oil as a stick to beat us down with. They will most likely hoard most of it, to increase the reserves for "National Security" no doubt, but more likely just to maintain control of the populace.

I know I listed many bad things here, and it would seem like I'm an alarmist or crackpot for saying this stuff. The Timeline for Oil Peak may be off by as much as a decade, but maybe not much later than that, we won't know untill we have ACTUAL numbers from OPEC and not the cooked ones they have now. The Natural Gas scenario I believe is accurate, though I hope someone has new information that proves me wrong. Unlike conservatives, we liberals don't mind being proven wrong, as long as it is with facts, not fantasy.

Now onto the Messages of Hope, if history is to teach us anything, it is that when faced with adversity we have a tendency to stick together, regardless of divisions. Granted, history also teaches us that chaos can ensue, but this need not be the case, we must not play the blame game with our neighbors when this comes to pass, because in reality, we all are ultimately at fault for our shortsightedness. So lets go on to, not solutions to these problems, but ways to deal with them when they come to pass.

First things first, get a gun, better to get two, a pistol and a rifle or shotgun. The reason for this is that, if Peak Oil hits, we are not going to be able to go to the grocery store for food for much longer. We are going to have to go to closer sources than that, ones that are local. The most obvious being deer and other game, also the pistol will serve as a personal defense weapon, and be trained on both please! Another note, try to get weapons in the most useful and prevalent ammunition, that is easy to reload if necessary. Hell if you have the inclination, get a bow or crossbow instead.

Another thing to do is start gardens in any open spaces availuable, securing food and clean drinking water are vital to all of us. Get iodine tablets or other water filtration systems/purifiers where availuable.

Another is to get really involved in your community, in an absolute worse case scenario civilization as we know it may collapse in its entirety. This can be devastating to morale of people in our towns and cities, so it is important to maintain relations with them to foster the sense of community and not be removed from it. I'm not advocating "heading for the hills" or any of that nonsense. No one is an Island and we have a better chance at not only surviving but also thriving in such communities.

An important thing to be concerned about is power, like it or not, we rely on electricity for a number of things that are vital, such as hospitals. While the challenges seem daunting, it is possible to maintain it for a while longer, off the main power grids. This would be a combination of community projects and individual action. One thing that will be lacking is big machinery for such actions, so I would suggest GEARING DOWN our power consumption and expectations for it. One thing that could be done is finding ways to maintain pockets of power in our communites if power outages are widespread. It could be anything from building a simple wind turbine, generators running on biodiesel, too even build steam turbines and even engines for transport. Unlike internal combustion engines, steam engines are particular about the fuel you burn, as long as it is hot enough. Anything from Wood and Paper to Coal will do. They are also, in the basic sense, extremely simple to design and build, hell people build them for hobbies in many places.

Now onto the most important item of them all, knowledge, reasearch, both the issues I raised in this post, and post your suggestions. Knowledge is power, if you are good at growing plants, or hunting, spread your knowledge to like minded people so that the message is spread. If you have lack knowledge in any area I mentioned, go to the library, or search the Internet, for survival techniques, planting, engineering, whatever you think will help your community and ultimately the world. If you don't know about guns, go to a gunshop and ask questions, go to the shooting range to practice, go out during hunting season.

This stuff may seem like crazy talk, but I remember in my scout days the motto "Be Prepared." We should not fear this time in our lives, but instead, simply be resolved to find a way to make it through intact, in mind, body and soul. I may sound like a crackpot for saying all this shit, but to put simply, hope for the best, prepare for the worse. Do I hope this comes to pass, HELL NO! But I hope that myself and all of you can find the strength to make it through.