John Kerry Wins Ohio by 25,660 votes

[Forever Free]

According to new calculations at DailyKos.com, it is perfectly viable and possible that Kerry can win Ohio by a significant margin.

*snip*

"Right now, it's 286-252 in favor of Bush.  Ohio has not even begun to count the provisional ballots.  There are 155,000 or so.  Ohio has a history of provisional ballots, based on state law.  In 2000, 90% of the ballots counted, and of those I understand that 90% were for Gore.  Applying that standard to the 155,000 would give Kerry 125,550 additional votes, and Bush 13,950."  

*snip*

"That would narrow the margin from 132,000 (the 136,000 figure includes the now-infamous Gahanna 4,000 vote error in Franklin County) down to about 24,600.  Originally, this was why Kerry conceded; he just couldn't get it done on the provisional ballots alone."

*snip*

"Traditionally, 90% count, and the split is about 4-1 for Democrats -- undervotes are almost exclusively from poor and/or minority areas.  Take 93,000, 90% is 83,700.  80% of that is 66,960 for Kerry, with 16,740 for Bush.  That 24,600 vote Bush lead after the provisionals now goes to  . . . . fanfare, please . . . . ladies and gentlemen, I give you the 44th President of the United States, John Kerry, by a 25,660 vote margin in Ohio."

*snip*

"Now the margins could change, most likely on the undervotes.  Let's say Kerry only gets 70%, rather than 80, of the undervotes.  He still wins, this time by about 9,000 votes."

There is still a very good chance for Kerry to pull out a decisive victory in Ohio. As mentioned in the report, Ohio has NOT even begun the count of all provisional ballots and the recounts called for by Cobb and Badnarik.

It is also very heartening to know that in 2000, 90% of Ohio's provisional ballots went for GORE. That's right folks, NINETY PERCENT. We WILL win this thing. When we do, John Kerry will have pulled off "the greatest stealth operation in the history of the world". Karl Rove would be proud.

LINK: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/14/144941/51


:toast:

[American Tragedy]

1. When will the count be completed?

The suspense is killing me.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

23. i read it could take until mid december......

"It looks like this election might go until the Electoral College meets in mid-December," Hankins said.

http://www.mansfieldnewsjournal.com/news/stories/20041117/localnews/1605240.html

...any Ohioians know if this is true?

[wtmusic]

2. "OK, now where did we put the provisionals?"

"Speak up, I can't hear very well...there's a garbage truck unloading a dumpster over here...you put them where?" :crazy:

[malatesta1137]

3. lol

[Selatius]

4. It won't matter if we fail to guard the ballots

We'd need a small army just to look after the provisional ballots in every county.

[Awsi Dooger]

5. Is it really 93,000 undervotes?

I thought the 93,000 was the total among 3 categories -- undervotes, overvotes and intentional non-votes. Only the undervotes would be partially salvageable.

Maybe I'm wrong. Regardless, I can't believe a vast majority of Ohio counties still used punch cards, especially after $133 million was set aside to replace them.

[Selatius]

6. The poorest neighborhoods got the shittiest voting equipment

It's always been that way. It's not right, but it's an all too common reality.

[ClintonTyree]

21. And never enough of them................

these are the districts that had to wait hours to vote. Now in the Republican districts.............walk in, vote and walk out. These are the Captains of Industry mind you, the ones that are "creating all of those jobs". We couldn't have them waiting for hours now, could we? They might have missed their tee time.

[Fescue4u]

25. Anecdotal I know

But my county used punch cards and its hardly. In fact the neighboring precinct, where Congressman John Boehner lives used punch cards to.

[VOX]

7. Kick for the early morning crowd.

:kick:

[Wordie]

8. ...and Kick again

[Pachamama]

9. This was my dream!

:bounce: How wonderful if dreams really come true! :hi:

I can't tell you how much I hope this is true....and I do hope that there are those who are watching that the provisional ballots don't disappear.

[Forever Free]

10. It WILL happen

BUT we need people here at DU and other places to keep this story and this recount alive. Without the efforts of countless bloggers at Democrats.com and DailyKos.com, we would have no chance of resisting another 4 years of George W. Bush.

Keep it up guys and remember HELP IS ON THE WAY...just keep hope alive!

:kick:

[liberal N proud]

11. I saw last night that only 85% of Porvisional ballots are valid

I can not find the article this morning. I will do more searching later and post.
Does that change your numbers?

[Forever Free]

13. Even so, Kerry still pulls out a win

Even taking into account that only 85% of the provisional ballots are admissable, that would only increase Bush's lead to 26,600 as opposed to 24,600. If Kerry maintains the same percentages of the undervotes that Gore won, he would pull ahead of Bush.

P.S. Where did you see that report?

[liberal N proud]

18. Could not find the original story but here a similar article..

http://www.wytv.com/news/headlines/1190831.html
Provisional Ballots Are Being Counted
Columbus
Associated Press


Election officials say most of the presidential election provisional ballots rejected so far in Ohio came from people who aren’t registered to vote.

Most of Ohio’s 88 counties are continuing the process of verifying the 155,000 provisional ballots cast on Election Day and it looks as if most of those ballots will count.

Nancy Moore is deputy director of Belmont County Board of Elections where about 40 percent of the provisional ballots have been rejected.

She says the big factor is that board officials couldn’t find a valid registration, whether it was in Belmont County or some other county.

In Cuyahoga County, about three quarters of the rejected provisional ballots came from voters who aren’t registered.

[TomClash]

12. blackwell will certify the election before the provisionals are counted

. . . or a recount is performed. And the Bush electors will be selected by December 13. Then we really don't have any recourse.

[sled]

14. COLORADO: Recount ahead in Jeffco House race

Wonder if anybody's looking at Colorado...Salazar also beat Coors, in
statewide race...very unusual outcome...

Excerpt:

Democrats also won an 18-17 majority in the Senate, giving them
control over both houses of the Legislature for the first time in 44
years.

********************************************************

Recount ahead in Jeffco House race

http://www.denverpost.com/Stories/0,1413,36~34018~2538964,00.html

By Jon Sarche
The Associated Press

Tuesday, November 16, 2004

A razor-thin margin in a Jefferson County state House race will
trigger an automatic recount, election officials said today after
compiling final but unofficial results from the election two weeks
ago.

If Green's victory stands, Democrats would have a 34-31 majority in
the House. Democrats also won an 18-17 majority in the Senate, giving
them control over both houses of the Legislature for the first time in
44 years.

One other state House race that had been too close to call ended in a
victory for the Democratic challenger, Debbie Benefield. She beat
state Rep. Bob Briggs, R-Westminster, by 520 votes.

The margin wasn't close enough for an automatic recount.

Candidates can request a recount by Nov. 29 if they're willing to pay
for it.

Republican and Democratic state officials said they had no plans to
ask for recounts, but the GOP could change its mind after it sees
Davidson's final numbers, GOP executive director David Wardrop said.

Before compiling final results, counties had to sift through about
50,600 provisional ballots cast statewide by voters whose eligibility
was in question for a variety of reasons.

[Forever Free]

15. I see the beginning of a trend

Let's get the momentum behind our cause, the fight is just starting.

[sled]

19. I think so, too.

If it walks like a duck, & smells like a rat...must be a Junior...

[TexasChick]

36. Dude, that was hysterical! n/t

[SammyWinstonJack]

39. Okay that was really funny!

:-)

[OneBlueSky]

16. just being hypothetical for a moment . . . what do we do if . . .

Kerry actually takes Ohio (something that I do not believe will happen, btw) and therefore has enough electoral votes to win the election? . . . because BushCo certainly won't give it up without a fight . . . it may end up back in the Supreme Court, and we know what happened there last time . . . but putting all that aside for a moment, what do we do if Bush just doesn't accept a new count and announces he's the president, na-na-na-na-na-NA!? . . .

[tritsofme]

17. IIRC Congress can contest the vote in the EC

and decide the election themselves.

Someone who knows a little more about the issue could probably expand, but I thought I remembered reading something about this in 2000.

[NinetySix]

34. The election is thrown to Congress if...

...there is a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College, or in case neither candidate receives a majority (270). This could happen if, for instance, a third party candidate receives electoral votes (e.g., Thurmond 1952, Wallace, 1968) and neither of the main party candidates receives the required 270.

[tritsofme]

45. I know that, but can't Congress

also intervene if they contest the voting in the electoral college?

Maybe I just misunderstood something...

[prodigal_green]

20. Does this take into account precincts where

Bush received an additional 4,000 votes when only 500 or so people turned out to actually vote. The "overvotes" I guess you would call them. I believe there were several instances of this, yes?

[Kahuna]

22. Bush will never concede. The media will underplay the story. And

just like in 2000, congress will refuse to acknowledge any winner but *.

Afterall, * has already declared a victory. :eyes:

[Forever Free]

24. A victory speech is not legally binding

and neither is a concession speech.

[Fescue4u]

26. Won't those be offset by the military votes?

Assuming that 90% of the provisional ballets go to Kerry..which is a pretty steep target, we still have to contend with about 70% of the military ballots going to Bush.

I hope Im wrong, but a Kerry win at this point is an extreme longshot.

[Chimpanzee]

27. Don't underestimte the military

I suspect they aren't too happy with Bush. I think their votes will be no more that 50-50, and possible more for Kerry.

[Snivi Yllom]

28. Category 6:Day of Destruction is on CBS tonight

The natural disaster drama is about three enormous weather systems that ultimately collide over Chicago, creating the worst super-storm in the nation's history.

It's about as likely as this election scenario.

[UdoKier]

29. *IF* This scenario were to come true...

and IF somehow Kerry were able to get the presidency, He would have won with a SIGNIFICANT minority of the popular vote. It could be a very rough time after that, maybe even unrest.

One way he could try to defuse it would be to advocate abolishment of the Electoral College in the future so that the will of the people would come first...

[rinsd]

30. More provisional ballots news,

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/news/archive/2004/11/16/national1836EST0720.DTL

This article states that 11 counties have finshed and 81% of the ballots were valid.

Also I'm not sure where this person got their 90% of the provisionals went for Gore figure.

[RevolutionaryActs]

31. Don't toy with me now!!

I dont think I could take that!!!!! :scared:

[berni_mccoy]

32. Kick

:kick:

[kostya]

33. Kick it some more.

[AlFrankenFan]

35. Whether or not this is true, I just started crying

excuse me for a moment.

[goclark]

37. I know how you feel

It just seems that there must be a silver lining to all the sorrow this election has caused.

[Ferretherder]

38. We can only hope, my friend.

n/t

[OutsourceBush]

40. The recount will be AFTER the certification of the Ohio vote

Therefore, it really doesn't matter what the Ohio recount says. Bush will be our next anti-christ christian DICKtator.

The only good that can come of this is that maybe we can maybe expose some sort of fraud and then suck our thumbs for 4 more years hoping they won't do it again.

[Chomskyite]

41. Who was the Sec of State in 2000?

Was it a Democrat or was it Blackwell? Somehow I don't see Blackwell allowing 90 percent of the provisionals to go for Kerry.

[Technowitch]

42. Nice dream, won't happen, sad to say

[jerryman814]

43. The probability of a 90% split for Kerry is VERY slim...

The number of provisional ballots in 2000 was SIGNIFICANTLY less than 2004. So, a 90% split is a bit unlikely.

"Cuyahoga County, which began processing its 24,788 provisional ballots Wednesday, found 1,749 valid and 917 invalid ballots the first day, said Bob Bennett, chairman of the county elections board and head of the state GOP."

But, if it does close the gap, I'd love to see the results of the statewide recount... Cross our finger I guess...

[helnwhls]

44. so what does this change?

[Chovexani]

46. Not a damn thing

Look for a terra incident to mysteriously happen the day the results of the recount come out...

I wouldn't put it past these bastards. I've lost all hope for this country. :(

[Selatius]

47. Kick this

Keep this little fire burning...

[VOX]

48. Kick for the early morning crew...

:kick:

[The Minus World]

49. It's a wonderful thought, but

it's still a highly unlikely scenario - it completely ignores Bush's inevitable refusal to step down, even if events unfold exactly as stated above.

While an upset for Kerry would have me doing cartwheels in the supermarket aisles, I believe the focus of the BBV effort is to expose systemic fraud in our electoral system.

That means our whole Democratic process is non-existent if we relegate our votes to technology with remarkably shallow security.

Kerry may still, in fact, pull off a legitimate win - there are individuals, like the one referenced in your post, who whimsically spin golden scenarios from pure optimism. However, if the Diebold scam doesn't gain momentum, and the touchscreens remain in place for 2006, we can expect more disappointment and more "regrouping and discussing of strategy."

After the cultural swell-to-the-left over the past four years, all signs pointed to that little map on electoral-vote.com being awash with blue on November 2nd, and yet we're only concerned with the 25,660 votes that would help us win?

This election was stolen. Fraud needs to be exposed, and its likelihood demonstrated on a national scale.

[Forever Free]

50. Your input has been great

While it is true that the number of provisional ballots in 2004 are LESS than the ones in 2000, there are a significant amount (120,000 or so) that have yet to be counted. Assuming that Kerry carries less thn the ninety percent that Gore had in 2000 (let's say 80%), that still gives 96,000 votes. When this is taken into account IN ADDITION to the undervotes, Kerry can still pull off in the FINAL tally by several thousand.

I understand the reticence to believe in "whimsical musings" and "golden scenarios". I too am skeptical. However, I am optimistic enough that once all the votes have been counted, Kerry will come out on top. Remember, Cobb and Badnarik of the Green and Libertarian Parties respectively have paid the necessary money for a recount.

OHIO IS STILL COUNTING VOTES. ELECTORS WILL NOT BE SELECTED UNTIL DECEMBER 12.

UNITL THEN, WE NEED TO KEEP THIS STORY AND OUR CAUSE ALIVE :kick:

:dem:

[The Minus World]

52. Thank you.

Yes, I maintain that we need a fair balance of optimism and skepticism to effectively counter the dirty tricks of the Republican party. The recount issue, to me, seems like a component of the larger structure of fraud; and, more appropriately, evidence that, when it comes to Republicans: when there is smoke, there is indeed fire.

I fully support the efforts of Cobb and Nader, and that's why I dontated over a hundred dollars to each of their funds.

[xerenthar]

51. A ray of hope.

[Forever Free]

53. Congratulations on your VERY FIRST post!

and WELCOME TO DU!!!



:bounce: :toast:

[Randi_Listener]

54. I'd fucking shit...

...3 bricks if this happened.

[ComerPerro]

55. Assume Kerry gets every single provisional vote and wins Ohio

You think he will be able to serve? Do you think the media and the Republicans in this country will let him be president?

Fuck no.

This situation is irrelevant, really. Even if Kerry does pull out a win, Bush will not step aside.

[berni_mccoy]

56. Deadlock in government is much preferable to the alternative

You really want Bush to have a "man date"?

[ComerPerro]

57. It will be a "man date" no matter what.

Once again, assume Kerry wins Ohio.

Bush, the Republicans, the media, and propagandists like Limbaugh and Hannity will still call it a mandate. They will say that the provisional ballots are "behind the scenes manipulation" and will accuse us of fraud.


Bush didn't get a mandate in the first place anyway, but they still treated it as such.

Hell, he didn't even win the popular vote (or the electoral vote) in 2000 and they treated it like a mandate.


If nothing else, expect a terror attack if it is discovered that Kerry won. A massive terror attack.

[Randi_Listener]

58. You have to look at the motherfucking numbers.