Complete US Exit Poll Data Confirms Net Suspicions

[dave502d]

Scoop.co.nz is delighted to be able today to publish a full set of 4pm exit poll data for the first time on the Internet since the US election. The data emerged this evening NZT in a post on the Democratic Underground website under the forum name TruthIsAll.

The new data confirms what was already widely known about the swing in favour of George Bush, but amplifies the extent of that swing.


http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0411/S00227.htm

[KeireG]

1. Magnificent

There it is, for everyone to see.

[m berst]

2. time to shift the debate

If people want to say "I don't care" or "I can't be bothered to understand this" or "we can't do anything about it" they should just out and out say that and go their way and leave us alone.

We should however, no longer entertain people saying "it didn't happen" and "where is the proof?" when what they really mean is one of those ideas in the preceding paragraph.

Short of George Bush going on nation wide television and confessing, this is as much proof as we could possibly have at this point. This is more solid evidence than a confession by the president would be, actually, because if the president did that I would suspect it was a trick, wouldn't you?

[understandinglife]

3. Testable Hypothesis

An excellent opportunity has emerged today in WA State to uncover evidence of systemic disenfranchisment:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/18/02430/077

Something you may want to consider pushing as it is quite specific. It would call all the issues into a bright spot-light regarding polling company, media, electronic voter systems manufacturers, and would place both Dem and Repub parties in a neutralized zone. Carter Center, Common Cause, BBV, Votergate.tv, the European election observer group -- all of them, and more, could participate.

It's not about 'did you vote'; it's about 'your vote being recorded accurately and verifiably' as you well know. Let's push Stalin not just back into the grave but off the planet!

Thank you.

[Be Brave]

4. In the interest of good science,

please let's put error bars on this plot. Please. The exit polls must have a margin of error for each state. Where can this data be found?

Also, a clarification. When the post says "4 PM exit polls", does this mean 4 PM local time for each state?

[George_S]

5. This is great... but....

I'm not sure anyone not already familiar with the problem would understand it. I had trouble, but then I'm dumb.

Let me see if I do understand.

As an analogy, if a cashier takes money 50 times and makes an honest mistake each time, there should be about a 50/50 split in errors: 25 times over, 25 times under.

If I understand correctly, you're saying the cashier came up short 41 times and the odds are so against that, that he/she should be fired.

Am I close?

[Donkeyboy75]

8. That's true...if you make the assumption that the cashier is

just as likely to come in over as under. Likewise, these polls only show fraud if we assume that they are an accurate picture of the actual voters. If there is a bias towards Kerry votes, though, this analysis is worthless. And we really don't know if there existed a sampling error.

[Beetwasher]

18. If There Was A Sampling Error, It Would Be Ubiquitous

and all the exit polls would be off everywhere and differ from the final results in the same direction within an MOE. They weren't. In many states the exit polls accurately predicted final results. This means a sampling error is NOT the likely cause for the discrepancy.

[Donkeyboy75]

19. Not if there was a nationwide bias towards Kerry.

Most of those states that lie within the MOE would still be there if you incorporate a 3-4% shift across the board.

The only reason I posted this originally is that people mistake these polls as proof of election fraud. That ain't the case.

On edit: if you shift the x-axis up 2.5% points, and replotted the data in different form, you'd get a Gaussian distribution of deviance between exit polls and voting results.

[Beetwasher]

21. Then NY Exit Polls Would Have Shown A MUCH Larger Kerry Victory

for example. The Kerry bias would be evident even in states that he won, showing his margin being larger than it eventually was. That's not the case as far as I can tell. Many states were RIGHT on the money. Exit polls very accurately predicted final vote tally's. If there was a systematic Kerry bias it would be apparent EVERYWHERE. It's not. That's inexplicable if it's a methodological/sampling bias.

The exit polls are NOT proof of fraud, but they are suggestive.

[myschkin]

6. ?

Why don't we get the Exit Polls from 12:20 a.m.?? - they would be more accurate (according to the footnote)...

Please post the "real" ones, balanced women-men (in the other case they don't take us serious).

Thanks.

[NJCher]

7. this is so painful

It hurts to see it in black and white, what they did. It's one thing to know it from various news stories and data interpretations but to see it like this...

We have had another president taken from us. Twice now we have had our elected president taken away.

Considering the magnitude of damage done to us in terms of our reputation, the debt this group of criminals has racked up for us and our children, the loss of so many lives, a needless war, it is all just too much to bear.

I never, ever thought I was going to have to live through something like this in my country. It is heart wrenching.


Cher

[scarletlib]

9. Yes, this is exactly how I feel

[Cooley Hurd]

10. Deeply painful...

On my way back from Poughkeepsie yesterday, I stopped by FDR & Eleanor's gravesite. Don't know why, I just felt a compulsion to do so. While standing there, I fought back a lump in my throat the size of Fala...:(

[sherilocks]

12. Maybe I'll send my niece there

I just found out that she is demonstrating AGAINST the anti-war protesters in Poughkeepsie. If I thought it would do any good, I'd come up there and take her myself.

[dbt]

11. Are there any MORE reasons to shun the Murkin Media?

Fear the Internet, CNN. Time to invade New Zealand!

:evilgrin:
dbt

[Kindigger]

13. For fear of sounding like a naive newbie....

I want to scream this to the rooftops. I've sent things to columnists in newspapers....people who based on their track record, would be the first to do an op-ed piece on it. All my pleas have been ignored.

Everyone from 18 to 80 are quietly discussing the fact we were robbed...from beauty shops to coffee shops.

Does anybody think it would be a good idea to send Letters to the Editor to every paper in the country? At the very least, by validating these people,it may give them some bravery? Given the right facts...glaring, and easy to understand...would the voices get louder, and harder to deny?

If I'm wrong, tell me so. If you agree, perhaps someone who writes for a living (or at least better than myself) could put it all in 250 words or less, and post it for all to use for that purpose.

Thank you for your consideration :)

[Protect The Vote]

15. I may be a newbie as well

but I feel the same way you do.

I think a carpet bombing of letters to the editor and any other way we can get the media to take notice (and do their job) is in order.

[Earth_First]

26. I would discourage the "form letter" concept...

and simply write whatever it is you feel off the top of your head. Form Letters have the propensity to greatly discredit the intent of the substance being discussed when it is found to have been a form letter. Good luck with your LTTE, if you speak from the heart, great words will pour onto the page...

[myschkin]

14. East coast states switched for Bush

Somebody noticed that the Eastcoast-States are overproportional on the left side? Any explanations for that? Somebody at Daily Kos wrote, when the Eastcoast was "turned around" and Bush had the lead, there was no necessarity to change the western votes.

They also wrote (some poll watchers), that at 5:00 pm almost nobody was voting anymore. So the exit polls of 4 pm have to be very accurate...

[myschkin]

16. Take a look

It's curios that there is such a difference between Eastern- and Western-States! :-o :-0

Maybe somebody makes a graphic to this?

[Javaman]

17. 51 states?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but at last count I thought there were only 50. Call me kookie.

[w4rma]

20. DC, is included since it'sworth 3 E.V.s as if it were a state. (nt)

[Imperialism Inc.]

22. Pretty sure D.C. is the 51st

I thought the same thing initially :) Hmmm... can't even get the number of states right no wonder the results are screwy :)

[Festivito]

23. I disagree, this will discredit us and be dismissed.

The idea that Republicans did not answer pollster questions is simply not important. For example, suppose Right-wing emailers asked Republicans to fool the polls by not answering questions or by answering wrongly, then this would only show that their minions did a great job for their party.

Further this issue will tend to hide the discrepancy between paper enhanced evoting and paperless evoting in regard the respective accuracy of the exit polls, the polls being very accurate where paper could track votes, and being significantly inaccurate and being only toward Bush where paper was not used. Even worse, that one state out of several states skewed toward Bush, showed no change inciting the idea that the errors were indeed malicious.

When discussed on radio, the answer of Republicans not playing pollster-addicts will shut down this issue and the important issues.

[myschkin]

24. ...

The "Kerry"-States (better votes than Exit polls):

Montana
Oregon
Haiti
California
Tennessee
Texas
South Dakota
Kansas
North Dakota

Except of Tennesse all on the West-Side of US... Although the "Swing states" Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico are at least + 1.7 going for Bush... (Exit Polls/Votes)

[myschkin]

25. -

from Daily Kos:

"Don't you find it a little curious that the Exit Polls were wrong in the same direction in nearly every state, and the states that were the most wrong included ALL 3 of the most hotly contested states, and that the ones that were wrong in the opposite direction included the two that are most difficult to rig, and also were ALL western states, who closed their polls when it looked like Bush was in the clear?"

[Kindigger]

27. What I was asking for in post 13....

Thank you for your replies. I didn't make it clear in my previous post that I was not asking for a "form letter". I was asking for someone who has been following this longer than I have, to give a compilation of the most convincing, glaring, facts and figures to support our position.

These items would be used as the basis of a LTTE. Some of us want to get involved, but don't have the expertise in stats etc. Although I have saved many posts/facts, and I understand them, I am having trouble selecting what is the most convincing to an average reader.

PS. I'm on a low budget...but plan to contribute to this site next month...so I can use the search feature, because... :yourock: