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Edited on Tue Nov-23-04 12:16 PM by Cary
I posted this elsewhere for neo-con minds to chew on. So far they can't see past the threats posed by Islamists. I am interested to see what real minds, here, can do with this:
Is the Middle East the real threat?
Granted it is no good when 19 Arabs hijack planes in our country with boxcutters and fly them into buildings loaded with people. Sure, they could do a lot worse and surely would if we don't act to stop them.
But is it conceivable that we would ever be replacing our Constitution with Sharia (sp?, Muslim law)? Would it be conceivable that we'd ever be swearing allegiance to Osama Bin Laden, or anyone remotely like him?
Despite the fact that there are 1.2 billion Muslims, I don't think so. Their culture is not homogeneous. They are more united against us now because of our own actions more than anything else. Even by nationality they are more tribal than united, and they are ready, willing, and able to kill each other to prove it.
When I look at the bigger picture I am more worried about other forces. We are 280 million people, which is nothing to be trifled with. However there are 1.2 billion Chinese and 1 billion Indians, and both economies have potential to dwarf ours. Right now the Chinese hold a large part of our debt.
I don't think we need to worry about military invasions from China or India. However without economic might our military ceases to be an asset and becomes a liability, as it was for the Soviet Union. It turns out all estimates of their military strength were grossly overstated because they couldn't afford to maintain their infrastructure.
Right now our greatest economic strength is that we are the greatest market in the world. Yet what happens to that market as we lose high-paying jobs? It is happening, folks. I am seeing it first hand. As these jobs become commoditized they leave, probably forever. Our middle class shrinks and the market for consumer goods becomes weaker.
The buzz in the business community right now is no longer manufacturing in China to sell goods to our market here in the U.S. (how quickly these things change). The real money is to manufacture in China to SELL GOODS TO THE EXPLODING CHINESE MARKET!
When you read about 800,000 Buicks being made in China, you are not reading about Buicks to be sold here. They will be sold to the Chinese. And that is good, sure enough, for General Motors and what is good for General Motors is good for America. But the larger trend here isn't necessarily good for America.
Think about it. These are true revolutionary forces of unprecedented scale. What happens when we no longer hold the best cards in the deck?
I know you all never like to face real threats. Instead you would rather invade Iran or Syria because that really feels like we're doing something to help our security. Sure, it's a lot easier to rely on good old Adam Smith and delclare that we don't have to worry about economic threats. Economic issues take care of themselves, right.
The answer is yes and no. The markets are wondrous, but like all theories the theories of free markets are an abstraction. In the real world there is no such thing as truly open and free markets. In the real world the real players are the ones with the money. They make the rules. They make them quietly, behind the scenes.
Like the real loss of high-paying jobs that I have really observed, I have also observed real people with real money really making the rules that work real big for them. On a small scale, I have helped them. I don't know you people well enough to identify any of you as one of these real people, or not, but I assume that even the wealthiest among us are not even close.
I don't have answers. I am merely identifying some trends, in my own awkward way. . .
This is far too critical to be partisan issue.
I invite you all to think about this.
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