What States Are in Play in 2004?

[Composed Thinker]

I think it's fair to say that Texas, Wyoming, Alabama, and Mississippi will be in the Republican column. And despite the repeated warnings I've gotten from some right-wing tool, I think New York, California, Vermont, DC, and Massachusetts will be going to the Democrats.

Am I wrong? What states do you think are in play in 2004?

[graham67]

1. Ohio and WV

will be up for grabs. Notice that Bush is spending so much time in OH?

[Composed Thinker]

2. That makes sense

If I'm not mistaken, the Democratic governor of Oklahoma recently said that his state wasn't as solidly Republican as people think, that Democrats might be surprised how well they might do here. Wouldn't it be nice to get a state like Oklahoma in 2004?

[ButterflyBlood]

7. Oklahoma actually has a Democratic legislature

but as they're most likely Zell Miller Democrats, I can't see the state being won. Look at those two knuckledraggers they keep electing to the Senate.

[liberalnurse]

15. Yes, we dem's in Ohio have noticed that as well....

We are going to do our damnest to get the vote out this year! Deanites are beginning to swarm the local party head quarters.....

[ShaneGR]

28. Ohio, West Virginia, Lousiana, and Florida

Will be the main battleground states of 2004.

[wuushew]

3. Crucial swing states

FL
WV
LA
NH

[phillybri]

4. NC could be....

IMHO

[wuushew]

8. I don't think so

North Carolina
winner declared
Bush 1,607,238 56% 100% 7:30 p EST, 11/7
Gore 1,236,721 43% by county exit polls
Browne 12,284 1%
Buchanan 8,971 0%



56%-43% is no where near swing state status

[GreenInNC]

56. NC might surprise people

We just might surprise people in 2004. Bush and the republicans are catching major hell because of NAFTA. One of our largest textile companies went under this year because of NAFTA. Robin Hayes (R-NC), whose grandfather started Cannon Mills, was the deciding vote to give Bush "fast track" authority. He barely won last year against a political novice and he got booed recently at a rally.

Sue Myrick, another member of the House, was an orginal member of Newts Contract on America gang has critisized the President for his trade policies.

[ButterflyBlood]

5. Missouri, Colorado and Arizona

a lot closer than most people think. I think these are usually overlooked.

[denverbill]

6. Wyoming just elected a Democratic governor.

I don't honestly know if that makes a difference in the Presidential sweepstakes, but he's the first Dem govr there in many years. It might just be personal with him though.

[ButterflyBlood]

10. no, actually

the state has for some reason had a Democratic governor since the 70's except for from 1994-2002. Strange, but look at how many Republican governors Massachussetts has had.

[dofus]

9. Kansas, I'm sorry to say

is probably secure Bushland. Although we do have a Democratic governor, and a woman at that, Kathleen Sebelius.

It's why, especially with the foolish Electoral College system, I'm still not sure there's any point in my voting for any Democratic candidate. My vote doesn't count.

And I think the idea that the Electoral College system forces candidates to campaign in more states than they otherwise would is quite wrong. If each and every vote really did matter, if all that counted was the final total, I'd stand a much better chance of seeing a candidate in person.

[SavageWombat]

16. Hey dofus

Agree with you there. Kansas seems to go knee-jerk GOP. Of course, I live in Topeka - remember that county-by-county map of the 2000 election? The entire state in Red, except for Shawnee and Douglas county in bright blue?

That's the state capitol and the University of Kansas for you non-Kansans.

[sleipnir]

30. Not So Fast,

As a Kansan, I still think that it might change, this election. I have hopes (they may only be that) if Dean wins the nod, he might infect some of those Red counties out West. His policies towards farms and small business, and his gun control stance will bring big points to West Kansans (which are a breed among themselves.) I honestly can't say what will happen, but I think that if anyone can bring Kansas to the Blue, it's Dean.

[dofus]

34. What helps,

at least from a Democratic perspective, is that the eastern part of the state, especially Johnson and Wyandotte counties, have been getting more and more liberal, more and more Democratic as people move here from elsewhere.

Last fall I participated in a voter registration drive, which involved going door to door in a nearby precinct (my own is too Republican to have been worthwhile) trying to get people to register as Dems and apply for an advance ballot. It was an interesting experience. The precinct in question was only two or three blocks from my specific residence.

Little by little, it's changing.

[TheYellowDog]

11. Well

I definitely know that we are going to take New York, DC, and Massachusetts. All of those are SOLID Democratic states. As for Vermont and California, Gore did not win those states by huge margins. Granted, he won them solidly, but it wasn't blowouts like in New York and Massachusetts. I would say that out of those 5 states(one district), if we lost any, we would lose Vermont and California. But I think that we will win them all. We have no shot at Texas, Wyoming, Alabama, or Mississippi due to the absolute GOP dominance in all of these states. We haven't won Texas since 1976, Wyoming since 1964, and Alabama and Mississippi since 1956, IIRC. Texas is getting a little bit more Dem due to the influx of immigrants, but I don't believe that we will have a crack at it till at least 2012. Of the states that Bush won in 2000, I believe that we have the best shot at taking Arkansas and Missouri, and possibly Ohio(large job loss there). What do you folks think?

[CoolerKing]

17. Gore won California by over a million votes

If that's not a "large margin" i don't know what is:

Al Gore Dem 5,861,203 53.5
George W. Bush Rep 4,567,429 41.7

[TheYellowDog]

20. It IS large

but not as big as he got in Massachusetts and New York, where he beat Bush by over 25 percentage points. I honestly believe that we will keep California, I am just saying it is not wise to take it for granted.

[ButterflyBlood]

22. the only reason Vermont was fairly close

was because Nader got more than 7%. These people elect a socialist congressman. He'll easily win reelection in 2004. It'll take a lot of split ticketers for Bush to carry the state and the people to reelect a socialist. Somehow I see people voting for both a socialist and Bush as pretty unlikely.

[TacticalPeek]

35. A-hem . . . hrrmmmph.

On election night 1976, the UPI call of Mississippi for CarterMondale put them over the top, and the call was on the money. So, 1956 is not accurate.

[terryg11]

12. Iowa, Missouri. maybe Nevada and Florida

Nevada because I think it went for Bush in double zero but at the same time he reneged on a huge campaign promise of not burying nuclear waste under a certain mountain (good lord, the name escapes me). Florida because the "official" margin of victory was 537 votes or something close but if the dems down there are taking care of business right then it should go democratic but there is the case of Jeb Bsh being rather popular for some damn reason so I don't know

[TheYellowDog]

13. Yucca Mountain

Nevada is definitely in play.

[Nevernose]

27. It is if I have anything to say about it!

Of course, Nevada has virtually no state-party structure left, as far as anyone can tell, so I imagine that Bush will win here again.

[wuushew]

14. There are 21 swing states

in order of electoral size

FL,PA,OH,MI,GA,VA,WA,TN,MO,WI,AZ,MN,LA,CO,OR,IA,AR,NM,NV,WV,NH
27 21 20 17 15 13 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 7 7 6 5 5 5 4

[Hawkeye-X]

18. All of the states are in play

Why? Because Chimp didn't win the 2000 election cleanly and he has destroyed and pissed off a LOT of Americans more than he thinks.

So what about the polls? It's 100% guaranteed BULLSHIT. His ratings are somewhere hovering at high 20 to low 30%.

By the time November 2004 rolls around, he's dead meat.

Hawkeye-X

[Composed Thinker]

23. Huh?

"His ratings are somewhere hovering at high 20 to low 30%."

What are you talking about?

[terryg11]

26. bring up a good point

I think some states are republican locks due to unfortunate circumstances but the fallout from year ground zero is bubbling just underneath the surface and these pollsters don't know it. There could be a serious backlash that isn't registering

[Bombtrack]

19. Here is the definitive answer: It depends

I'm currenty working on my third year in public policy and polisci at a big research university

here are the situations of 3 candidates, if what proabably happens does(slight growth in economy, somewhat rebounded stock market, establishment of fledgling iraq government,)

Kerry:
The GOP strategists are going to work on winning certain Gore states against what used to be the frontrunner. IO, NM, OR, WI, and PA

the only one of those that Kerry has a legitimate advantage in is PA, the others all could go either way

Kerry would nominate Graham as his veep, and try for the Bush states of FL, OH, AZ, NV, WV, and NH. He couldn't win any others

the GOP would also probably net atleast 2 senate seats with Kerry as the party's front man

Dean:
Unless we have a second recession and a monumental uprising in Iraq, or some watergate like shift in public opinion towards Bush's image, Dean would likely do worse than Dukakis(far fewer than 100 electoral votes) he would probably win the most liberal northeast states(VT, RI, NJ) and he might be able to get CA, but he could easily lose NY
CT, ME, PA, - - - pretty much everywhere that Bush got more than 37-40 percent

Edwards:
He would require Bush to spend every where but the hard right ilsand of Texas up to the dakotas and east to the plain states and MI, and AK

this would help solidify most of the lean-dem states. He could split both the south and West, particularly NC, FL, TN, GA, and AR.
He's lived in 5 souhern states, and is a true rural success story. His book is even better than his cover

[Ediacara]

31. what's the deal with dean?

I always hear "Dean electoral disaster" but never a why.

People against civil unions are republicans and wouldn't vote dem anyway ever.

People gung-ho for Iraq war are republicans and wouldn't vote dem anyway ever.

Dean is energizing people like no candidate I have EVER seen, and has tremendous momentum. He can and will win states like Ohio, West Virginia, New Hampshire and Montana because of his more conservative opinions, not dispite his liberal ones.

[NewJerseyDem]

38. Dean could do bad

I wouldn't say that he will definitely do bad if he is the nominee but I think that he probably will. There are several reasons.

1. He is too angry. He is currently in the primary where his campaign strategy is to bash Bush as much as possible and liberal democrats love it. But, moderates don't hate Bush and will be turned off by his anger at Bush. He may be able to change his attitude in the general election though.

2. The media has portrayed Dean as very liberal. I don't think that this is some big conspiracy or anything but sometimes the media just portrays people badly. Because Dean was against the war everyone seems to think that he is some sort of communist. So, the media portrays him as a real lefty that is out of touch with mainstream politics but they don't focus on his more moderate views on gun control and deficits.

3. Dean is from Vermont. A democratic northeasterner unfortunately has a disadvantage in a presidential election. He can't pick up Massachussetts again, so he will have to focus on picking up states outside of his region while other candidates like Gephardt and Edwards can appeal to their regions for more electoral votes. It is just hard to see states like Missouri, Arkansas or West Virginia voting for a democrat from Vermont.

[Bombtrack]

47. No, you don't know your politics

a small fraction democrats, and a large majority of independants would be turned off by his signing of the civil unions bill, enough to vote Bush or stay home.

At least 2/3rds of voters continue to support the Iraq decision(even though WMD's, Saddam haven't been found yet, and many Foreign troops have not yet arrived)

most of those things are likely to happen, as well as estabishment of pro-western government.

less than 2/5's of voters are republican, so once again your statement is wrong.

I'm sorry, but his nomination would be the greatest thing that could happen to the modern new right GOP.

[depakid]

51. You claim to be a policy analyst but

your posts offer nothing whatsoever in the way of analysis. All I see is shallow and ill considered opinion.

Most analysts I know are serious wonks in their respective fields and love to cite data and discuss interpretations. Perhaps you'd consider offering some of that to support your conclusions. Many of us find that much more interesting than blanket statements.

[TacticalPeek]

39. Bombtrack, this is truly interesting; however,

not to belittle any quest for knowledge certainly, but regarding the 1980 presidential: do you imagine that there were manyifany analyses or polls in September '79 that predicted Raygun's electoral margin over Carter within, oh, say, 250 votes? Or even a prediction that Raygun would be the R?

Part of my point is that I think that Clark v. Bush modifies all the equations.

[Donna Zen]

41. that is a very interesting:

On the ground this summer I felt a quaking in bush's WV strength, but only with the right candidate. PA was a shocker, after going for Gore and electing a D for govenor, but my sense was that the state felt very red. Ohio...my god! My Dem friends talked D politics in low voices, and the legislature just passed "creation theory" education. In my state with its puny electoral vote count, it is a toss up. At one time this was a solid R state, but both the legislature and the populous are very evenly divided. If things begin to turn around for the regime, the northern part of the state could give one of those electoral votes to bush.

Question: What does Clark do to the race?

[wuushew]

43. Do you see Maine splitting its electoral votes?

How uniform is the political landscape in Maine

[Bombtrack]

49. Maine would go for most major dems

Kerry, Edwards

Leiberman and graham as well but I don't think they can win the primary

but it's moderate enough that Dean could easily lose it.

[Bombtrack]

48. probably not enter

every day that goes by, he loses crucial fundraising and campaign opportunity.

He could be eyeing for a VP slot(although he doesn't fit Kerry, or Edwards very well, and I doubt he'd take a fall with Dean)

He could be hightening his profile for other things, as a campaigner/fundraiser in Arkansas for presidential, federal, or state candidates, or for a future run himself for any office.

Or perhaps he thinks he'd make a better choice for Defense seceratary if he gets his name out there.

who knows, it's easier to predict general electoral politics than primary politics

[TacticalPeek]

52. Well. let's say

in a couple of weeks we will know. Then, a couple of months and there will be data.

Speaking of data, it seems like the media do not cover these famous numbers as much anymore:

Right Track/Wrong Track Polls listed chronologically.

Ipsos-Reid/Cook Political Report Poll. Aug. 19-21, 2003. N=1,000 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.

"Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?"
Right Wrong Not
Direction Track Sure

8/19-21/03 39 53 8
--8/5-8/03 42 52 6
7/22-24/03 40 54 6
-7/8-10/03 46 48 6

Format goofs included, here's the link: http://www.pollingreport.com/right.htm

[RobertFrancisK]

21. Ohio, WV, Montana, Arkansas maybe Florida

Aswell as states we narrowly won like Michigan, Penn, and such. Really, it's too early to tell. If the election was held today, it would be tough to just win all the Gore states. But the tide is turning and the traditional swing states will definatly be in play if things keep going against Bush, and other traditionally repub states could even come around.

[msanger]

24. Virginia

Will go Dem for the first time since LBJ. We have a Dem governor, and there is just as much anger here at bush and what he's done to the country as anywhere else.

I think bush is going to lose in a landslide - he'll take Texas and maybe a few other southern states.

but when all the dems unite and we've got a couple of million folks making calls, going door to door, writing their newspapers, and working their butts off -- bush will be toast.

I mean seriously, how much passion FOR bush is there. Those who support him support him because he is their president, not because they actually like him.

[Composed Thinker]

25. How is that anger reflected?

[Japhy_Ryder]

29. What part of VA are you in?

Here in central and SW VA Bush will win BIG. Perhaps Fairfax and Arlington can offset it (although there's plenty of Republicans in Fairfax), but there are lot of Southern Freepers down this way. Tidewater can go either way depending on getting the minority vote out. Other than a few NOVA counties, Charlottesville, and Tidewater the rest of the state will go for Bush 80/20 or more. Will NOVA offset it?

[carolinayellowdog]

32. More nuanced view of Virginia

Japhy,

From a fellow Kerouac fan who voted in VA in 2000 but will probably register in NC next year: you're missing some important details. A big swath of rural Southside went for Gore in 2000: Brunswick, Greensville, Sussex, Surry, and Southampton. (Maybe others.) Three Hampton Roads cities went for Gore and will probably go for any Dem: Suffolk, Norfolk, Portsmouth. Virginia Beach and Chesapeake are Bush country, and I'm not sure about the Peninsula cities but assume Newport News and Hampton went for Gore, York and James City Counties for Bush. This is not likely to change either.

VA and TN are more in play next time than NC, and most of VA's growth continues to be in Dem areas. Some SW counties are Dem territory, in the coalfields.

CYD

PS-- forgot to mention that Mark Warner is perceived as a success and fiscally responsible, with approval ratings over 60, unlike NC's Easley who will not be much help to the Dem presidential candidate next year.

[kwolf68]

37. Virginia Dem?

LMAO...Bush will win Virginia. LMAO...

The Dems should work on PA, Fla, Ohio and Michigan before wasting their breath on this state.

Northern Va is solidly Democratic, but it won't be enough to make up the rest of Va.

I believe the two parties will split their main states (in other words, there will be no big upsets like a Rep taking Cali or a Dem taking Texas)...

The war will be won in the middle...those states too close to call. Whoever can pull in the most from those states will win...Of course none of this matters if the election is rigged and the voting machines are programmed to produced an intended result.

[uptohere]

40. are you trippin ?

let me guess, you're from northern VA right ?

[CentristDemocrat]

33. It depends on who the nominee is.

If it's Clark, for instance, states like Arkansas, Tennessee, Florida, West Virginia are in play.

[tjdee]

42. I agree, it really depends.

It really, really, REALLY depends.

For example, Nominee Lieberman would not put any states in play.

[devinsgram]

36. How about Nevada

Didn't he promise not to take something about nuclear waste thry that state?

[uptohere]

44. All of them except for VA

but technically we are too.

There is too much time and a lot of water to go over the dam. If we can select a candidate who speaks to people (ala Mr Clinton) then we can get our share and then some. If Bush does something to really falter (sorry folks, it ain't happened yet but it could) then the map could go as blue as it was red for Mr Reagan.

[TacticalPeek]

45. There it is. A perfect storm is perfectly possible.

I hope I am right about Clark, in that he can talk straight through to the voters. He can show our country the crucial importance of being more than earnest. I think, anyway.

And this thugacious administration is ripe for a class A shellacking on the scandal and dishonor front, I believe. KKKarl's future felon status is one of many fissures in their facade, and they will be dropping more plates in their desperation to keep them all spinning.

Gravity is against these creeps.

[spotbird]

46. Oklahoma.

Rumors are that Nickels won't run again and there are some strong Democrats who could take it.

[The Sushi Bandit]

50. Hawai'i will go Democrat

Gov. Lingle is a republican but the state will go to the dems

[Lefty48197]

53. MO and WV will decide the next election

FL, MI, PA, and NM will be very important too.

[knight_of_the_star]

54. Don't bet on California

Unless we can get some serious resources committed here, it could go red this time because of Davis.

[wuushew]

55. If California goes red.....

I will buy you a steak dinner.

I am tempted to make a similar claim about Clark entering the race but lack the corrage.