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We have to look at the sequence of events.
First, the BBC reporter claims that a senior official told him that the dossier was "sexed up".
Blair et al deny it and claim the reporter is lying.
The controversy rages, and Blair is forced to find an out. He decides that if he can get the official to admit to being the person who talked to the BBC reporter, but DENY that he had said what the BBC reporter had claimed he had said, the BBC would let it go.
The official however DIDN'T deny that he had said ALL of the things Blair needed him to deny, which only fueled the controversy. Remember, at this time Blair et al were trying to say the BBC was lying about what the official had said - ignoring whether the actual claim was true or not.
So now they have the problem that they (Blair et al) know that Kelly was the source, the BBC know that Kelly was the source, and Kelly was being difficult by not denying the BBC's claim. They knew that eventually Kelly would talk and reveal what had gone on behind the scenes in more detail.
So they tried a different tack - If Kelly were to "commit suicide" then he could be painted as a fantasist who never really had the access he claimed to have and thus could not possibly have known what he was claiming to know. Thus the leak is effectively plugged.
So Kelly "commits suicide". Before the body is even cold, a senior official is calling Kelly a "Walter Mitty", and the new spin is starting to go into effect.
However, the pressure doesn't relent, and Blair et al decide to have an inquiry at which they can gracefully take the blame for causing this man to commit suicide by releasing his name while reinforcing the "he didn't have the access" and he was a "Walter Mitty" type, first by playing down his level in the community, and second by having another reporter come forward and suggest that she had heard the same claims but given in a "flippant" manner, as if he wasn't really serious, he just makes very serious accusations of government malfeasance to reporters for fun.
Blair even gets on the stand and takes full responsibility for releasing Kelly's name to the media and inadvertantly setting in motion the chain of events that led to Kelly's "suicide" - How noble of him! "The buck stops here" and all that.
Even the family managed to make it sound like Kelly was suicidal - unless you think of it in a different way and assume that Kelly had been threatened and was terrified they were going to kill him. Suddenly all of the testimony that he was nervous, upset and agitated takes on a whole new meaning, but that is not mentioned as a possibility and so it just looks like a man (who had faced down armed Iraqi soldiers while a weapons inspector) could not face the pressure of having leaked true information that proved that Blair had lied, and thus killed himself.
So everything was looking good, right up until those two damn intelligence officers admitted that Kelly not only knew what was going on in regards to the dossier, but had suggested and had been approved to make several modifications to it, showing that he was intimately involved with the process, as well as being connected with others involved in the process. Then they went even further and said that they agreed with Kelly - the dossier had been "egged up" and was being politicised by the "spin merchants"!
Suddenly the whole "I take full responsibility" for the release of Kelly's name is gone like the smokescreen it was, and now Hoon is back in the firing line. After all, if this is going to turn to shit, better that Hoon take the blame, eh Tony?
Now I am not saying this is what happened, but when it is written out like that, you can see that there is a reasonable suspicion that foul play may have been involved. There is motive, definately means, and opportunity. All of these go towards making a case, but without a WHOLE lot more circumstantial evidence, or just ONE good piece of physical evidence, it only amounts to speculation.
The motive is clear: quash suggestions that Blair lied to the people in order to go to war.
The means: Well, the British have one of the oldest intelligence services around, and they don't mind getting their hands bloody if the need should arise.
The opportunity: It wouldn't be hard to access medical files and the Kelly house for determined agents.
We know that Mrs Kelly was using the kind of medication that was found with Kelly's body, but I don't remember her saying that any was missing, or the Polise saying her name was on the bottle. Maybe they just forgot to say that at the inquiry into his death?
As for the knife? He had had it for years, and it is not impossible that it was lifted or even a clone. I don't remember Mrs Kelly saying that Kelly's knife was missing, but that the one she had been shown looked the same as his one.
But even if these were items from the Kelly house, as I said, it wouldn't have been hard to "acquire" them for determined agents.
I don't know if I believe this version of events, but it is possible, and it does seem strange to me that a man who could handle the stress of being on the ground surrounded by hostile Iraqi soldiers couldn't handle the stress of being exposed as a whistle-blower. Maybe if he had been lying it would make sense, BUT HE WASN'T!
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