From the murky depths of the Peak Oil group... a curious observation.

[DireStrike]

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=266x82

World oil demand may fall sharply in the second quarter of 2005 and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) may take action in anticipation of such a decline, OPEC President Purnomo Yusgiantoro said.

"There have been developments (that suggest) that during the second quarter of 2005, demand for oil will plunge," Yusgiantoro said without elaborating.

"Therefore there's a need to think about this and the steps to be taken," he added.

He said OPEC will discuss its policy for 2005 at its upcoming meeting in Cairo on Dec 10.


http://energybulletin.net/3449.html


What causes oil DEMAND to FALL, and how would he know about it in advance? What developments?


EDIT: At that meeting on the 10th, they cut production 1M barrels and resolved to meet again on the 20th.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/08/19/world/main636979.shtml

[crispini]

1. WTF?

Whoa.

Edited to add: I looked around some more on that site and found this.

"CERA projects that with slower global economic growth next year, including a cooling economy in China, spare oil-production capacity could climb from 1 million to 1.2 million barrels a day to a more normal 3 million barrels by the middle of next year."

http://energybulletin.net/3644.html?ENERGYBULL=ac5aca80a940da328d3cb4eeac8e4dea

They think China's going to slow down?

[Us vs Them]

2. Ha. The fall of the dollar

which will render a majority of Americans' autos unaffordable to run?

[DireStrike]

4. That's probably the best explanation.

They expect recession.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

6. There is a number of "Wave" bears...

That sweat, up and down, that what we are seeing right now is a bear-market rally and that early 2005 will see the start of a real nasty fall.

Take it for what it is worth.

[illflem]

7. The fall of the dollar

is the reason given why OPEC wants to cut production next week. To jack the price up to the pre-devaluated level of profit, that would be about $65/bbl

[DireStrike]

8. Does the fall of the dollar indicate a loss of demand?

I don't understand this economic voodoo stuff. People would still want as much oil... I guess the dollar and its relationships with everything are extremely complex.

[illflem]

10. No, what's happening is that the dollar is only worth 60¢

for them to make as much money as they did 3 years ago before bush screwed everything up, they need to get paid 40% more for it. Sure fire way to raise the price is to create an artificial shortage by cutting production.

[MatrixEscape]

3. Culling?

That is curious. From what I know and have read, demand will increase and the output of various non-OPEC countries will continue to diminish.

While I know it is paranoid, that smacks suggestively of some dire implications.

On the other hand, one could speculate more optimistically about some amazing and substantial new energy technology on the horizon ... cha! right ;)

[elehhhhna]

5. BA will bomb a Blue City to justify a draft. Recession a byproduct...

Prince Bandar gets first heads-up on evrything, right?

[Solon]

9. Well, having the price quadruple due to an oil shortage...

would definately cut into demand. The biggest thing is that they probably can't do a damned thing about it.

[gorbal]

11. I wish....

I guess it would be a bit to rosy an assumption to wonder if alternative energy developement in Europe might have something to do with it.

Probably not, sigh.