Everything You Need To Know About PEAK OIL But Were Afraid To Ask

[mhr]

Hi All,

The following video is the simplest, cleanest explanation about why peak oil matters available on the web. It highlights the fallacy of our growth culture and couples this to overpopulation and the diminishing supplies of world oil.

Al Bartlett Colloquium
http://edison.ncssm.edu/programs/colloquia/bartlett.ram

I am posting here because the link was languishing in the Peak Oil group and the video really needs wider exposure and distribution.

Enjoy

[UL_Approved]

1. This hits the nail on the head

I wish I had encountered this guy in my college career. In some ways I have, since one of my physics professors and an economics professor mentioned these things, but not all together.

Some math for you:

(1.07)^10 = 1.9672
(1.10)^10 = 2.5937

Powers of 2:

2^0 = 1, 2^1 = 2, 2^2 = 4, 2^3 = 8, 2^4 = 16, 2^5 = 32, 2^6 = 64, 2^7 = 128, 2^8 = 256, 2^9 = 512, 2^10 = 1024

BTW, in computers, a kilobyte is 2^10, or 1024 bytes, instead of 10^3, which is 1000.

[Jack_DeLeon]

2. Thats really interesting...

watching it now, I'm at the part about increasing and reducing population growth.

[bpilgrim]

3. excellent sensei

thanks for sharing that :toast:

peace

[mhr]

4. Kick - People Need To Watch This Video

The most logical hour you will watch on what truly faces the human species.

[RC]

5. How many can comprehend the wholesale

starvation when the oil runs out?
Our biggest problem by far is that this planet has far more people than can be sustained without the energy we use from oil to feed them.

[Solon]

6. Yep, the "Green Revolution" was due to oil...

leading to our population explosion.

[Solon]

7. Dammit, the stream timed out on me, and this at 7 am?

Too much congestion, just when he was getting to the 7% growth mark and exponential increases.

[BlueEyedSon]

8. More Peak Oil links here.....

http://www.doomsdayreport.com/links.html

[BlueEyedSon]

9. BTW, which group is the "Peak Oil group"? I can't find it....thx nt

[mhr]

10. Link Here To The DU Peak Oil Group

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=266

[BlueEyedSon]

11. thx... added to my groups. nt

[mhr]

12. Always Glad To Help!

eom

[mhr]

13. Kick For Saturday Exposure

eom

[bpilgrim]

14. kick n/t

peace

[davekriss]

15. Great Peak Oil Thread on Urban75

If anyone's interested, a great peak oil thread has been running for more than a year on urban75, here. It contains many many very informative and challenging links throughout its 600-700 posts...

:)

[Jack_DeLeon]

16. Can anyone save that file and host it.

I would like to have an actual copy of it instead of just a stream.

[bpilgrim]

23. here ya go............................. .mp4

http://news.globalfreepress.com/movs/Al_Bartlett-PeakOil.mp4

psst... pass the word ;->

peace

quicktime will play mp4 if your player doesn't and its free =)
download here...
http://www.apple.com/quicktime/download/

see also...

Why Use MPEG-4 On The Web?

MPEG-4 is an ISO standard supported by a wide range of companies in a variety of industries, as discussed in the section “Support for MPEG-4”. This means that an MPEG-4 file can be played by many different players in addition to QuickTime, not only on personal computers, but also on cell phones, PDAs, and television set-top boxes. This is a huge step forward from the current proprietary environment, which may lead you to deliver your movies using different compressors and multiple formats––such as Real, Windows Media, and QuickTime––just to serve your Mac and Windows customers.

QuickTime movies compressed using MPEG-4 audio and video codecs can be exported to MPEG-4 file format without recompression, allowing you to serve your movies in multiple formats (.mov and .mp4) without sacrificing quality or time.

At typical Internet data rates, the MPEG-4 simple video codec is comparable to Sorenson3 video. This a good reason for using a codec in itself, but there are other advantages. The MPEG-4 video codec scales very well at extremely low bitrates, making it suitable for cell phones and PDAs with data rates even lower than dialup modems. In addition, MPEG-4 video compression can be very fast, making it suitable for live broadcasts and decreasing the time spent compressing movies.

Note: The current release of QuickTime 6 includes only the MPEG-4 simple video compressor. Higher quality and lower bitrates can be expected from the advanced video compressor.

MPEG-4 audio uses the Advanced Audio Codec (AAC), as discussed in the section “MPEG-4 Audio Support”. This codec provides better quality than mp3 audio at any given bitrate, or equivalent quality at a lower bitrate (typically about 30% lower). At higher bitrates, AAC supports multichannel surround-sound audio. Like MP3 before it, MP4 audio is a standard, so it is entirely possible that devices currently supporting MP3 (MP3 players, CD players, DVD players) will soon be available for MP4 as well. This is a premium quality audio codec for ISDN data rates and above.

For low bandwidth audio suitable to dialup modems or portable wireless connections, however, the QDesign2 music codec and Qualcomm Purevoice codecs remain better choices.

The MPEG-4 specification includes a low bandwidth audio codec based on CELP (codebook excited linear predictive) algorithms similar to the Purevoice codec.

Note: The current release of QuickTime 6 supports AAC audio at 44.1 and 48 kHz in mono or stereo. It does not currently support multichannel sound or other sampling rates for AAC audio, as discussed in the section “Defining AAC”.

more...
http://developer.apple.com/documentation/QuickTime/QT6WhatsNew/Chap1/chapter_1_section_13.html

[mhr]

29. Thanks

eom

[bpilgrim]

30. no worries

peace

[mhr]

17. Saturday Evening Kick For The After Shopping Crowd!

eom

[mhr]

18. Kick For The Late Night Saturday Crowd

eom

[mhr]

19. The Olduvai Theory Couples Nicely With Bartlett's Presentation

http://dieoff.com/page224.htm
http://www.dieoff.com/synopsis.htm

Also consider this thought from Sir Fred Hoyle:

"It has often been said that, if the human species fails to make a go of it here on Earth, some other species will take over the running. In the sense of developing high intelligence this is not correct. We have, or soon will have, exhausted the necessary physical prerequisites so far as this planet is concerned. With coal gone, oil gone, high-grade metallic ores gone, no species however competent can make the long climb from primitive conditions to high-level technology. This is a one-shot affair. If we fail, this planetary system fails so far as intelligence is concerned. The same will be true of other planetary systems. On each of them there will be one chance, and one chance only." (Hoyle, "Of Men and Galaxies", University of Washington, 1964)

[Minstrel Boy]

21. Richard Duncan now predicts Olduvai Cliff Event in two-three years

From Michael Ruppert's recent economic report (membership required)

PEAK OIL IN OVERDRIVE - THE OLDUVAI CLIFF APPROACHES

Within two weeks of the publication of this warning, legendary oil geologist Richard Duncan will publish a new paper titled The Olduvai Cliff Event: ca. 2007 after a peer review of Duncan's work is completed. FTW will bring that paper to you as soon as it becomes available.

Excerpts from that paper read as follows:

The Olduvai theory states that the life-expectancy of Industrial Civilization, defined in terms of world energy use per capita ("e"), is less than or equal to 100 years. History: We know that the peak of "e" (per capita hydrocarbon production) occurred in 1979 and that "e" declined from 1979 to 1999 (the 'slope'). Future: The Olduvai theory predicts that "e" will decline even faster from 2000 to the so-named 'cliff event' (the 'slide'). A previous study put the 'cliff event' in year 2012 (Duncan, 2001). However, it now appears that 2012 was too optimistic. The following study indicates that the 'cliff event' will occur about 5 years earlier than 2012 due to an epidemic of 'rolling blackouts' that have already begun in the US. This 'electrical epidemic' spreads nationwide, then worldwide, and by ca. 2007 most of the blackouts are permanent. The 'modern way of life' is history by ca. 2025....

Postulate 2 of the Olduvai theory states, "Energy production per capita (e) will decline exponentially from the cliff event circa 2008 to 2030." If that is true, then the population in the world's industrial nations, we argue, will go from about 3.3 billion in 2008 to about 0.9 billion in 2030, a net die-off of about 300,000 people per day in the 22 years from 2008 to 2030.

Most Peak Oil advocates will think that this pushing up of the date is perhaps unjustified. I do not and neither does Richard Duncan whom I spoke with by telephone on November 29th. Almost all oil geologists understand and acknowledge that applying technology such as secondary recovery via water injection and horizontal bottle-brush drilling actually accelerates a field's decline by destroying the source rock. The same analogy applies to the ever more intense fight to either wrest oil supplies away from competitors or, failing that, to ensure that competitors cannot gain access to what you are denied.

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/members/120104_world_burns.shtml

[mhr]

22. Regardless Of The Exact Dates - We Are In For A Bumpy Ride

Within our lifetimes.

That is why the video linked above is useful. It helps to contextualize the reality of what we are facing.

There are only two near-term (now) solutions.
1. Massive conservation
2. Zero population growth

Both of these approaches are anathema to the "growth culture" espoused by modern economics.

In essence, our leaders have no idea what a zero growth culture would look like. They are in uncharted waters and are not prepared to lead. That leaves us, if we choose to take on the challenge. If we don't, Duncan paints our future very clearly.

Remember, from the video, when did the bacteria realize that they were running out of room in their bottle? - "at one minute to midnight".

Will we be to close to midnight before we accept the inevitable? That is what most of us fear.
---
"Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored," Aldous Huxley.

[mhr]

20. Kick For The Sunday Morning Crowd

This is well worth the time to watch!

"Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored," Aldous Huxley.

[lectrobyte]

24. I've been trying to watch it, but the stream seems to die

Anyone want to outline the key points? Thanks!

[bpilgrim]

25. have you tried this link......................................... mp4

http://news.globalfreepress.com/movs/Al_Bartlett-PeakOil.mp4

psst... pass the word ;->

peace

fyi: quicktime will play mp4 if your player doesn't and its free =)

download here...
http://www.apple.com/quicktime/download

i'll add an mp3 later ;->

peace

[ilovenicepeople]

26. Thanks for the great info

KICKING for those just getting back from worshiping consumerism.

[lectrobyte]

28. Yes, thanks, that is working for me. I've watched it half way

through, very clear explanation.

[NecessaryOnslaught]

32. Good stuff!

Thanks for hosting this. :kick:

[Silverhair]

27. What is the latest on Thermal Depolymerization? NT

[Jesus H. Christ]

31. Same as any other alternative energy source.

Too little too late.

[mhr]

33. Kick For The Late Night Folks

eom

[0rganism]

34. mhr, thanks for putting this in GD -- much more useful here

Now that I think back on it, the Peak Oil forum was probably the LAST place at DU that needed to watch Dr. Bartlett's presentation, but it is still a solid educational resource. Time to send the link out on a mailing list or two...