In the mid 1980s I attended a seminar at Yale University entitled "International Security and World Order". It was during a morning panel discussion by Yale's Political Science Department professors that I finally understood our foreign policy toward the then U.S.S.R. We would simply outspend them on "defense" and weapons systems.
According to these bright (and surprisingly young) men, it didn't really matter if the systems were particularly effective, as long as the Russians believed they MIGHT be. By spending more and more, we would force them to spend more and more. What I have called "The Poker Game Analogy" was that the Soviet Union would bankrupt itself before we did. Back then it was seen as a tight race, and there was a risk that we might not have enough chips to call the last bet, however various projections indicated that we would win by a whisker. These predictions turned out to be accurate.
Now we know that the so called "missile gap" was bogus, a highly effective program of disinformation by the Russian military and the KGB. Unfortunately for them, the Rule of Unintended Consequences came into play and their bluff ultimately caused their downfall.
What reminded me of this was a AP headline I saw at the USA TODAY website:
"Analysis: Only U.S. can damage self majorly despite bin Laden
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2004-12-18-bin-laden_x.htm?csp=34
Osama bin Laden claims to have bled the Soviet Union into bankruptcy as an Islamic guerrilla fighter in Afghanistan in the 1980s. Could he do the same to another hated superpower — the United States?
The al-Qaeda leader's latest purported communication drove home the point by calling on militants to stop the flow oil to the West and praising a Dec. 6 attack on the U.S. Consulate in Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil producer."
"Go on and try to prevent them from getting oil," the speaker said. "Concentrate your operations on that, especially in Iraq and the Gulf." One commentator in the article had this to say:
Retired Gen. William Odom, a scholar at the Hudson Institute and an expert in the Soviet collapse, said bin Laden's analogy is off base since the Soviet Union collapsed for reasons other than Afghanistan, including the weakness of its state-run economy.
As far as spending on Iraq, Odom said damage to the U.S. economy is attributable to the Bush Administration embarking on a costly war. In the fall 2003, Congress approved $87.5 billion for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and $25 billion more last spring, and Bush is expected to request another $75 billion to $100 billion early in 2005.
"If we're stupid enough to go off and do something like that, bin Laden can justly crow about it," Odom said. "But I don't think he can take credit for having caused it."
Odom believes no al-Qaeda strategy can topple U.S. dominance.
"In an operational sense, U.S.-made policies, not bin Laden's actions, have risked putting the United States in a very serious situation," he said.Which brings the question: Why are we doing this to ourselves?