Iraqi Elections Will Bring Chaos

[louis c]

The Iraqi elections next month can result in only two outcomes, both are bad for the US occupation.

First of all, al Sistani's coalition will win any fair election. The Shiite majority (60%) will overwhelm all other factions in the voting.

If the Iraqi Shiite Clergy take power, American troops will be under their direction. So much for Bush's declarations during the debates that "America will never need the permission of a foreign government to defend itself."

Any other outcome other than an anti-American, Islamic Government under the control of the Shiite Clergy will not be accepted by the Iraqis. Remember that all Sistani had to do to break the stalemate by al-Sader three months ago in Najif was to tell his supporters to take to the streets. His command was obeyed without question.

So, if al-Sistani's group is defeated at the polls through obvious fraud, I will venture a guess that his supporters won't take it the same way Americans did in our last two Presidential elections.

[Hippo_Tron]

1. Alright I'm no expert on Iraq

And I basically understand and agree with the two outcomes you have predicted, and of course they will be bad for the Bush administration who wants to keep the troops there for years so that they can take over the oil resources.

My question is about the chaos that you speak of. If the US leaves, will the insurgencies stop because there is no more US occupation, or will they just focus their attention on trying to overthrow the elected Iraqi government? Basically, what's the best way to stabilize the country that doesn't involve protecting US oil interests?

[louis c]

3. I Expect that

this Administration will not leave Iraq as an anti-American state.

They will do everything in their power to obtain the outcome they desire.

The Iraqis will not stand for this, and chaos will ensue.

I don't have a crystal ball, by I do know a little bit about Iraqi history and the predictable reaction of the present Bush Administration. Bushco. will not exit quietly with their tails between their legs.

Expect chaos, with us in the middle.

[Jacobin]

2. Iraq will become an Iran clone

The lame-brained idiots who supported this invasion were too stupid/deluded/brain-washed to figure out that in a country which is majority Shiia, that they would win a democratic election and that they are closer to Iran than the rest of Iraq.

Geo-political catastrophe emerging, thanks to the neo-cons

[louis c]

4. My Point, Exactly.

Go to the head of the class.