Bring me up to speed - What's happening with the Jan. 30th Iraqi Elections

[Junkdrawer]

Last I heard, al-Sistani was the hands-down favorite to win and there was considerable fear (?? in neocon circles ??) that he would then proceed to kick the US out and create strong alliances with Iran.

So does Bush have a plan to prevent al-Sistani from winning? If not, is there some kind of deal to moderate al-Sistani's positions re the presence of US troops? And if al-Sistani doesn't win, won't the insurgency get even larger, if that's possible?

Bonus points if anyone can link to a credible-yet-non-propaganda-laced article on what's going on.

[Spazito]

1. I think this article might sum it up and it isn't satire either!

Secrecy surrounds Iraq vote
Concerned about violence, some political parties won't even reveal candidate lists.

BAGHDAD - Secret ballots are the cornerstone of any democratic process. But little more than two weeks before Iraq's first free elections on Jan. 30, the country is finding that secrecy is being taken to new heights.

The identities of many of the candidates haven't been publicly disclosed and are likely to remain secret until after election day, an illustration of the difficulty in mounting an election amid war.

"Not having the candidates' names known is far from ideal for an election, but I think we can all understand the fears over their safety,'' says a foreign election adviser. "Security is a very big issue for all candidates."

more

http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0113/p01s03-woiq.htm

[Junkdrawer]

2. I saw that, but it says the United Iraqi Alliance (al-Sistani's party)...

is favored to win and that most al-Sistani supporters don't care who the candidates are as long as al-Sistani picks them.

That still evokes the same questions.

The one thing it did say, however, was that there are 111 parties running. Could they hope to convince the Iraqis that they were confused and accidentally voted for parties other than the United Iraqi Alliance. Sort of a butterfly ballot writ large.

[Spazito]

3. Yep, I read it as the way to ensure Allawi the 'vote' even though...

al-Sistani is slated to win, damn polls will be 'wrong' again ala US election.

[Jacobin]

12. Bwaaaahahahahahah

I hadn't heard that!!!!

They are voting for UNKNOWN CANDIDATES!!!!!!!!!!


LMAOROF!!!!!!!!!

"Hmmm, let's see, do I vote for "X" or do I vote for "Y".....?

What a fucking charade.

The Onion is now obsolete. Truth is stranger than fiction. Up is down, out is in. 1984 has finally arrived!!!!!!!!

[Junkdrawer]

4. I see three "Iraqi withdrawal" articles on Truthout, but al-Sistani...

isn't mentioned.

http://www.truthout.org/docs_05/011105A.shtml#2

And, even though he's the favorite, I don't see his name alot in the US press. Odd.

[jimshoes]

5. Official Iraqi ballot

[Bozita]

7. Yup, that looks like the official ballot

lmao

[tabasco]

6. There will be a dog & pony show.

Our puppets will be installed.

The corporate media will proclaim the new glorious free Iraq.

Our soldiers will remain "at the request of the Iraqi government" and continue to die.

The Iraqi puppet leaders will never venture into the Iraqi streets and will remain in hardened sites.

The US military focus will shift to securing oil facilities as Iraq slips into total chaos.

[Junkdrawer]

8. I would guess they will have to be a little more subtle...

I'm guessing al-Sistani's party will have to be the largest party in the new assembly. Now, they should be the majority, but that's where "ballot confusion" may come in.

Then again, maybe al-Sistani and BushCo have struck a deal. Who knows? Seriously, does anyone know?

[Junkdrawer]

9. .

:shrug:

[Disturbed]

10. al Sistani is not running...

for any office. I read that al Sadr and Achmed Chalabi are on that party ticket. The U.S. will be asked to leave within a month or so if the al Sistani backed party does win. It seems that this party will win if the election isn't rigged.

[paulk]

11. first off - the January 30th election is to elect a Nat'l Assembly

to write a Constitution and appoint an interim government. The elections to put together a Constitutional government aren't slated until the fall sometime. I think there's a real misunderstanding here on DU (and out in the real world, too), as to what the Jan. 30th elections are about.

Here's a good link from the BBC

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3971635.stm

[Jacobin]

13. Thanks for the link

There is widespread ignorance, and I'm among the ignorant, mainly because reading about this charade will make me weep.

I'm curious though. On the ballot with no names to pick the constitutional delegates...? Do you like vote for "X" or "Y", or do they give a description of what x and y are like?

I know this is all Alice in Wonderland stuff, but I am curious about that

[paulk]

16. I'm pretty sure you vote for the party rather than any specific

candidates - and people are going to know what that party's positions are.

[Junkdrawer]

14. Thanks. That's the kind of info I'm looking for...

:thumbsup:

BTW: It seems the Prime Minister will control the military. Does he/she have the power to ask the U.S. to leave? :shrug:

[paulk]

15. One of the main planks of the United Iraqi Alliance's platform

(that's Sistani's slate of candidates, and the one that will have the most power)is "to negotiate the withdrawal of US troops". In fact, that's the only part of the platform they will publicly reveal. However, no date is given. My understanding is that there was a lot of Iranian influence pushing for an early (July) withdrawal - but Sistani nixed it. I suspect Sistani wants the US troops to stick around to help with the (inevitable) civil unrest, if not civil war, that will follow the January elections. My most cynical self believes that the crushing of Fallujah wouldn't have happened without Sistani's approval.

[Junkdrawer]

18. Well, from what I understand, colonial powers have been playing...

Sunni off Shia off Kurd since Iraq first came under foreign influence/control. It wouldn't surprise me if we threatened to side with the Kurds/Sunnis if the Shia threatened to kick us out. Besides, the Ayatollahs in Iran have found out they lose influence once we leave and the country begins the transition to REAL democracy.

[buddysmellgood]

17. Election day is to be held as a lottery of sorts. Every third person

will be killed on the way to the polls. Their votes will go to Chalabi. Those that make it to the polls will be informed of the surviving candidates. Of those, they will be allowed to vote for Chalabi. Exit polls will be conducted of the remaining one third that survives leaving the polls. The will be asked who they voted for. Chalabi will be recorded as their answer.