Iraq wasn't Poland. It was Czechoslavakia.

[Minstrel Boy]

At Munich Hitler made the case for annexing the Sudetenland. Germany, he said, had no more territorial ambition in Europe; it merely wanted to incorporate the German-nationals of the border region into the Reich. (Is that so unreasonable, Herr Chamberlain?)

The world didn't like it, but would it go to war over the territorial integrity of Czechoslavikia? As if.

But just a few months later, German troops marched into Prague and claimed the rest of the Czech republic. Hitler's ambitions in Europe were clear then to even the stubbornly blind. There was no reasoning with this guy. He couldn't be appeased. So the line was drawn. Hitler would not receive the benefit of the doubt again, and the world began preparing for what was obviously an inevitable war.

Iraq was Bush's Czechoslavakia, and the WMD case his Sudeten Germans. As strained as the argument was, would the world stand up to the United States for Iraq, in opposition to a Crime Against the Peace? But since the case has been proven a sham, and the US is Iraq's perpetual occupying power, America's next imperial adventure will likely be met with more than just wringing of hands from the international community.

Iran will be Poland. Meaning, an action against it will be, potentially, a catastrophic trigger. Because the world knows better now than to rollover again. It knows now, there's no reasoning with this guy.

I believe a line is being drawn around Iran by powers such as its strategic trading partners and neighbours, Russia and China. Iraq stood alone, but don't be shocked if, one way or another, Iran does not.

[BlueEyedSon]

1. kick

[Larkspur]

2. Iran is larger and more populous than Iraq

There is no way our military could occupy Iran. Even with a draft, there wouldn't be time to train draftees to perform the dirty work of colonial rule.

What the Neocons are hoping to do until Iraq quiet downs, is to take pot shots at Iraq, but as usual, the Neocons will bite off more than they can chew and we will all pay for it.

[atreides1]

3. Iran Will Be Bush's Poland

But in this scenario US troops won't be fighting against bi-planes or horse cavalry, and the Iranian AAA is the best that Russia can produce, along with Iranian SSM's which are probably already targeted
at US troop concentrations in the region.

And while the Iranian Air Force mainly consists of some old US jets,
these are well maintained, add in the modern MIGs sold to them by the
Russians, along with state of the art radar systems. Iran won't be an
easy target like Poland.

But this is all just an opinion.

[DireStrike]

4. Some have theorized that Iran has missiles which could beat our

naval anti-missile defenses. Could you imagine if they took out a carrier or 2? :scared:

[Squeech]

5. Yeah, but

who would really be prepared to take us on? We're still a nuclear power.

In your historical analogy, Russia acquiesed in the rape of Poland, since they got to keep the eastern chunk. Hitler's real Bushian moment was in believing he was strong enough to take Russia on, while still busy consolidating Europe. And then, as you know, Russia did the heavy lifting in defeating Hitler. To this day, Russians refer to WW2 as The Great Patriotic War, mindful that they lost millions of men-- their Greatest Generation wound up largely dead.

Russia could mount a credible attack against us-- they also have nukes, and submarines. There probably wouldn't be much shooting by infantry forces, it's probably be somewhere between Shock and Awe and Mutually Assured Destruction, and there wouldn't be much left of either combatant afterward.

Greater likelihood is, China and Japan figure out what would be a good time to start selling US T-bills, which would cause the dollar to tank and interest rates to skyrocket. But they'd probably do that regardless of Iraq-- unsustainable fiscal (and trade) deficits are like that.

[Minstrel Boy]

6. I agree about your greater likelihood.

There are other ways to wage war than militarily.

I don't think invading Iran would provoke a direct military response from Russia or China, but it could be the trigger for a sequence of events in which that becomes an inevitability.