Zogby has * at 45

[CatWoman]

but this morning on Washington Journal, Bill Sammon cited Gallup as much higher.

I didn't get the number.

He also cited other polls giving * higher numbers.

Anyone catch that?

I really can't stand Bill Sammon.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=732

[DisgustipatedinCA]

1. I read in another thread

That Gallup has him at 59%. I don't know if that's so or not, but I believe that's the number I saw.

[diplomats]

8. That's correct but the poll was done two weeks ago

Bush's average in August was about 55 percent, and Gallup runs about 4, 5 points higher than other polls (I don't know why). All the polls in September, however, show Bush dropping - Zogby from 52 to 45 percent, CNN/Time from 55 to 52 percent and Ipsos-Reid from 56 to 52 percent. Something must've happened when Chimpy got back from his vacation.

[Brotherjohn]

14. "Something must've happened when Chimpy got back from his vacation."

Something did happen. Chimpy got back from his vacation.

[Brian Sweat]

16. His approval rating is higher when he is on vacation.

:)

[regnaD kciN]

18. A few days ago, Jay Leno put it something like this...

"Let's see...more trouble in Iraq, new terror warnings, unemployment up...that can only mean one thing -- President Bush is back from vacation!"

;-)

[underpants]

2. Time/CNN have it at 52%

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=297257

[CatWoman]

3. thanks, UP

I see my thread is a dupe.

HAHAHA -- First time I've ever alerted myself :hi:

[underpants]

10. No not really a dupe

I just posted that site so people could track the slide downward.

[Fridays Child]

4. Zogby is usually the most accurate, and Bill Sammon is a...

...freaking Moonie asshole and Regnery whore. I can't stand him, either.

[ProfessorGAC]

5. I Almost Got It Right, But Not Quite. I Admit I Was Wrong

Long time GD readers will know that i've posted many times about my popularlity poll model. I predicted Georgie would be at 45+/-2% by Labor Day.

Well, Zogby has him there, a week late, but the average of the 8 largest polls still places him at about 49%.

While 49% is good news for those of us who pay attention, i must admit that i got the number and timing wrong. Not terribly, terribly wrong, but wrong nonetheless.

Just interested in fair recording, because if i'd been right, i would have trumpeted that fact. (You know how i am.)
The Professor

[carolinayellowdog]

6. DinoBoy and I guessed about right

Hey,

On July 18th or 19th I started a thread asking people to guess where *'s approval would be two months hence, 9/18 or so. Guesses ranged from way low to way high, but DinoBoy said low-to-mid 40s and I concurred. If the next ten days see the same average drop as the last 50, we'll be just right, looks like.

CYD

[ProfessorGAC]

12. Pretty Darn Good!

I think my original post about my model was just about the time of the aircraft carrier stunt. Maybe the week before. It was about 3 months ahead. It was after i revised my model which had been screwed up when all the cheerleaders were rah-rah'ing the war once it had begun.

I said absent any new major "rally 'round the flag" event, he would be 43 - 47% by Labor Day. The prediction curve did not show the flattening that has occurred in his fall until just below 40%. Instead it flattened around 51%. My math didn't accurately predict that. The 45, +/- 2% was the 95% confidence interval, so my prediction was off by more than the 5%. Substantially more, actually.

Still, the numbers aren't cause for disappointment. Maybe folks are starting to open their eyes and see, like most of us here, that bush was a moron on Sept. 10th 2001, and 19 maniacs didn't make him smarter.

The Professor

[diplomats]

7. Hey, but he is below 50 percent finally

you weren't off by much :)

[CatWoman]

20. All hail the professor!!!

:D

[ProfessorGAC]

21. Hail What? I Was Wrong!

The Professor

[CatWoman]

23. but not by much

:D

Ok -- if you don't want your Oscar, we'll just take it back :P

[Brotherjohn]

9. I want to say congrats! You were (almost) spot on!

You recently posted a summary of your methodology, and how you use Zogby and a couple of other polls. Well, the first Zogby released after 9-1 was right at 45%. As for the other polls, they're falling fast.

So maybe you were a week or so early. Chalk that up to the summertime doldroms that Bush, and the people being polled, have been in. You were pretty much spot on, so give yourself a pat on the back.

[TacticalPeek]

11. If Clark had already been in and banging for a week or ten days,

I bet you would have hit within error.

Wesley probably doesn't want aWol to bottom too early.

[samsingh]

13. you did get it right - congratulations

it's great to watch someone forecast something correctly for a change. Bravo.

[Uzybone]

15. Sammon is an unapolgetic

cheerleader. The bastard makes me sick. Quoting Gallup polls (which has Bush getting more votes than Gore in 2000) as if they are gospel. I almost threw my eggs at the TV watching this guy lie and lie again and again.

[UTUSN]

17. LIMBOsevic Just Called It "the ZOMBIE Poll"

and a great caller just called him on it, saying that LIMBO has never called it other than Zogby all this time Shrub's #s were up but now that they're (deservedly) the pits, he calls it "zombie". LIMBOsevic did the usual pirouetting and ended with something about "We play with names around here..." But if it bothered LIMBO enough to diss, it MUST BE TRUE!!!! Hip-hip...

[sexybomber]

19. I'm not celebrating yet, but I think I might start soon.

When his numbers drop below 30% on all the major polls, I'm cracking the bottle of Brut in my fridge. My guess is that he's at 30 or below by Groundhog Day next year.

[carolinayellowdog]

22. Just like his daddy

well, almost

[radfringe]

24. for all the polling numbers....

http://www.pollingreport.com/